Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky will go dem. West Virginia and Montana will go republican. SD will stay democratic. The dems will hold on to Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Alaska.
The reason I believe this is because the polls are underestimating minority turnout, just like in 2012. Virtually all of the swing states (besides maybe Iowa and NH) have sizable minority populations that are not being polled. For example, the polls are not reaching bush people in Alaska. That is tens of thousands of begich votes. The polls are not reaching hispanics in Colorado. That is tens of thousands of Udall votes. The polls are not reaching blacks in Georgia or Kentucky. THat is tens and tens of thousands of Nunn and Grimes votes.
Unfortunately, no.
Can I ask if these results will be taking place in the same universe as the following one?
Article does not take into account demographics. Whites will be a minority in 2 elections. In 3 elections, less than half of the states will have a majority-white population. In 5 elections, NO state will be majority white.
I would wager that a good 70-80% of people ages 18-25 watch those shows weekly, and the shows really do a good job of selling and advertising the democratic party in a humorous way.
IIRC, Mexican-Americans voted in droves for Republicans in each election up until Nixon. What do you think ticked them off? (or who?)
With all due respect, I don't think analysis of demographics is your strong-suit. You need, like, data or something.
