FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL

[IceSpear]

I think the notion that Florida will certainly have an R+ PVI in 2016 needs to be re-examined. Obama was never a great fit for the state.

Still, I highly doubt she's up 8 there if PA/OH are ties, and vice versa.

[IceSpear]

I just happened to read this article. The Clinton team thinks of all the Obama states, Trump has the best shot in Ohio.

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But apparently, they are very bullish on Florida.

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Maybe Quinnipiac is on to something after all? This article was written before these polls were released.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228

[IceSpear]

The leads in Florida are just beautiful. Is Florida really just Clinton Country or is Trump just a terrible fit for the state?

Both, plus Obama not being a great fit for the state either. Polls in 2008 routinely showed her outperforming Obama by 10-15 points there, whether they were taken at the start, in the thick of the primary wars, or at the very end. And that was against McCain, who was a decent fit for the state himself. Trump further exacerbates the problem by alienating the Cubans.



Obviously the difference won't be quite so drastic due to the political polarization that has happened since 2008, but interesting nonetheless. And while I do think Atlas exaggerates the political differences of states depending on the candidates (COLORADO = SAFE R WITH HILLARY, LIKELY D WITH LITERALLY ANYONE ELSE!!!11! VIRGINIA = SAFE D WITH TRUMP, BUT TOSS UP WITH ANYONE ELSE!!!!!11) the fact of the matter is there are differences. Just because Florida had an R+ PVI in 2008/2012 does not necessarily mean it will in 2016.