Democratic Party of Japan leadership race Jan 18 2015

[jaichind]

Okada just won in the run-off, by playing up lefty policies

@EPG, the DJP's main problem is it is too ideologically inconsistent beyond being anti-LDP. They really need to let the JIP go.

I agree with this.  One of the reasons why DPJ was thought of never being able to come to power in the 2000-2007 period was its ideological inconstancy where the old Dovish center-left coexisted with neo-liberal economic reformers.  This was never really resolved but DPJ won in 2009 anyway ad LDP stumbled in 2007-2009.  But up until early 2009 there were constant talk of LDP DPJ party realignment mainly due to inconsistencies both within LDP and DPJ.  Now these inconsistencies have fixed themselves with the creation of JP JRP and their merger into JIP.  Now we have two fairly consistent opposition parties (DPJ JIP) that represent two different critiques of LDP.  Being that JIP is now moderate on the hawk-dove axis with the FPG being the super-hawk opposition party (and sinking anyway) there are a lot of room for DPJ and JIP tactical alliances in elections going forward to try to defeat LDP-KP.    Merger talks are a bad idea and merely recreate the situation in 2000-2007 where there is a large and significant opposition that has not prospect of coming into power.

[jaichind]

Look like it was

first round
Hosono         298
Okada           294
Nagatsuma   168

second round (which exclude local DPJ chapter votes)
Okada           133
Hosono         120

Hosono  would have been a bigger gamble for DPJ.  It seems that the DPJ MPs and MLAs have decided to go for the safer choice and bet on Abe making mistakes next couple of years to bring votes back to DPJ.

[jaichind]

well, the problem is that once they get into power they're completely moribund and start collapsing into factions. At least the LDP are united in the sheer determination to protect established interests. (I think the LDP are closest you will come to an undiluted small-"c" conservative party)

Their main problem was that they decided to copy the LDP way of doing things.  The allocation of ministers in 2009 was based on seniority (just like LDP) and internal organization was based on factions (just like LDP).  Problem with that is LDP is powerful based on the local Clientelism and DPJ can never match LDP in that respect so replicating their style of organization would lead to disaster which it did.