Mighty (or once mighty) political Parties That You Believe Will Die Soon

[mvd10]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

CU and SGP (more socially conservative Christian parties) actually have quite young voter bases. High birth rates in the Bible belt ad if your parents vote SGP you'll likely end up supporting the SGP too. The CDA's voter base is much older though.

The CDA's collapse with Christian voters has been especially dramatic with Catholics. Catholics don't have another Christian party to vote for (CU and SGP are explicitly Protestant) so the CDA used to have a monopoly on them, but Catholics left the CDA for PVV, VVD and even SP in the 2000s/2010s. Catholics are much less likely to vote for one of the three Christian parties than Protestants, I believe both VVD and PVV are ahead of CDA with Catholics now. The PVV has made some inroads in the Bible belt and other religious Protestant areas (there isn't really a Catholic Bible belt, I guess Oost-Brabant and parts of Limburg are quite religious, but they aren't as extreme as the Protestants in the Bible belt), but their gains are pretty limited.

I think the CDA can remain relevant for quite a while if they position themselves are more culturally conservative than the VVD (while being to the left of the VVD on economic issues), but we're definitely not going to see a CDA PM again in my opinion. I was baffled at Buma being happy with 19 seats. Who could have imagined than a decade ago?

[mvd10]

The Dutch CDA?

I don't think they'll die out completely, given the very low threshold to be elected to the Dutch Parliament (I believe it's 0,66% of the total national vote or something like that), but I doubt they'll stay a major force much longer. Christianity is on the decline in most of Western Europe, the Netherlands included, so the Christian moderates (the type of people who would have been this type of party's base) are disappearing and Christian conservatives I think are going to vote for more conservative parties like the PVV or FvD from now on, which doesn't leave much space for the CDA.

CU and SGP (more socially conservative Christian parties) actually have quite young voter bases. High birth rates in the Bible belt ad if your parents vote SGP you'll likely end up supporting the SGP too. The CDA's voter base is much older though.

The CDA's collapse with Christian voters has been especially dramatic with Catholics. Catholics don't have another Christian party to vote for (CU and SGP are explicitly Protestant) so the CDA used to have a monopoly on them, but Catholics left the CDA for PVV, VVD and even SP in the 2000s/2010s. Catholics are much less likely to vote for one of the three Christian parties than Protestants, I believe both VVD and PVV are ahead of CDA with Catholics now. The PVV has made some inroads in the Bible belt and other religious Protestant areas (there isn't really a Catholic Bible belt, I guess Oost-Brabant and parts of Limburg are quite religious, but they aren't as extreme as the Protestants in the Bible belt), but their gains are pretty limited.

I think the CDA can remain relevant for quite a while if they position themselves are more culturally conservative than the VVD (while being to the left of the VVD on economic issues), but we're definitely not going to see a CDA PM again in my opinion. I was baffled at Buma being happy with 19 seats. Who could have imagined than a decade ago?

You're probably right. So which parties in the Netherlands do you think can form government in the short-to-mid term? VVD? Who else would be possible?
Because I can't see the VVD leading government forever (well I suppose it wouldn't be impossible because next door in Belgium the CVP/PSC was almost constantly the leading party of government from the late 1950s to the late 1990s; now the CD&V (the CVP changed its name in 2001) will probably never be the country's largest party again but I think the next PM from Flanders will be from that party because the largest party, NVA, while they can enter government coalitions, I think they're too controversial to be able to form government outright, as you need to get the support of several parties on both sides of the linguistic divide;and the CD&V is the largest right of centre party after the NVA).
And where is the Dutch Protestant Bible Belt?
At anyrate I'm happy to hear that the Dutch Bible Belt seems to be doing well and growing.

This is a map of the SGP vote by municiplity which is a great indicator. And CU vote is strong in most of these municipalities too.

Yeah, sadly the VVD can't win forever . I think the VVD is in a decent position as most competitors aren't really viable in the short term. CDA/D66 are in a coalition with the VVD, PvdA is tainted by Rutte 2 and some scandals, GL probably doesn't have broad enough appeal and FvD/PVV and probably SP too will never lead a government. But they can't win forever. I'm inclined to say the VVD will eventually be replaced by a left-wing party as the biggest party (though not necessarily a left-wing government). The Dutch left can't lose forever right?

The VVD is Mark Rutte by now, and we'll have to see how VVD heir apparent Klaas Dijkhoff does after Rutte leaves. Maybe centre-right voters will prefer the more experienced Buma (CDA) or even Pechtold (D66) as PM over the inexperienced Dijkhoff. It'll be interesting to see what happens after Rutte. Even with Rutte there is the possibility that he stays too long like Balkenende. So the risks for the VVD are either a 1994-esque situation with Rutte as Lubbers (CDA PM in 1994, from what I know he probably would have won if he ran again) and Dijkhoff as Brinkman (young charismatic CDA candidate in 1994, but not ready for primetime) or a 2010-esque situation with Rutte as Balkenende (incumbet CDA PM who really should have left) and Dijkhoff as Eurlings (who probably would have won the 2010 election for the CDA, but declined to be their candidate and then spectacularly and savagely killed his own reputation in the past few years).

[mvd10]

What about LR (main conservative party) in France? A borderline corrupt extremely conservative candidate got 20% of the vote in the 2017 elections, and now they're stuck at about 10% in the polls. I guess what direction LREM/Macron will directly impact the remnants of PS and LR.