If Romney runs, will the Nevada caucuses be uncontested?

[Mr. Morden]

If the 2016 primary calendar pans out like I'm expecting, Nevada will likely go third, just after Iowa and New Hampshire.  So it would seem like there's a good chance that it would be a heavily contested state, with a lot of candidate attention.

Except for one problem.  If Romney runs, then we'll presumably get a repeat of 2008 and 2012, where Mormons make up ~25% of the GOP caucus turnout and go ~90% for Romney.  With enough support from non-Mormons as well, Romney then wins ~50% of the total vote, with second place way back around ~20-25% or so.  This could easily happen even if Romney 2016 isn't as strong as Romney 2012 or even Romney 2008.

Given that, will the other candidates even bother to contest the state?  They might as well just skip it and go straight to South Carolina, hoping that Romney winning unopposed means that the media will discount the meaning of his win.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul might show up to try and gather than rural libertarians to place 2nd if it is proportional. He might get 2 or 3 10+ delegates. His chance of breaking 20% here is better than breaking 10% in SC, so he might as well try (it would probably require he wins one of the first two or is at least a very close 2nd possibly both times).

The delegates will be awarded on a quasi-proportional basis, but the number of delegates we're talking about is trivial compared to what will be awarded on Super Tuesday.  At that stage in the game, it's all about doing what you can to produce momentum for Super Tuesday.  In which case, it's unclear that there's much of anything to be gained by finishing such a distant second in Nevada, when you can spend your time trying to break into the top three (or higher) in South Carolina.

Is it actually easier for Paul to break 20% in Nevada than 10% in South Carolina?  I don't know.  Rand is not his father.  It depends on how he campaigns, but it isn't obvious to me that he's doomed to such poor showings in the South.

[Mr. Morden]

I think right now NC is slated to go the Tue after SC so it may become the 'tie breaker' but in theory there may be no tie breaker before Super Tuesday (Assuming different winners for IA and NH)

North Carolina is currently scheduled to go the Tuesday after South Carolina, yes, but considering the new RNC penalties, that would mean that North Carolina will be penalized down to just 9 delegates, and they probably aren't going to want to live with that.  So my guess (though certainly not a sure thing) is that IA/NH/NV/SC will end up being the only states to go before Super Tuesday.  Maybe one of the other 46 states can live with the super penalty, but it'll more likely be a smaller state without many delegates anyway, rather than a state like NC.