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Are there any good books on post -apartheid south African history ?

Nice work so far!

Thanks

ALSO IF THIS IS THE WRONG BOARD ALSO MESSAGE ME

It's the right board. Welcome to the EWI family! (I should be adopted by one of you one of these days...)

I wouldn't exactly describe a nomination contest that ends in March as a slog. Donald Trump was nominated in March and, no matter how Haley and company might spin it, it was nothing other than a stroll for The Donald with a couple of inconvenient obstacles in his way.

By any chance, were you influenced by the End of History 1996 mod on the New Campaign Trail? That's Wofford on Team Red vs Wilson on Team Blue.

Originally, I wanted to into massive detail about the constant back and forth between Dole and Wilson. With Wilson's home state of California being the last needed for him to win. In the end, I thought it would be too hectic.

I've played that mod once but this was an idea floating around in my head for a decent while before seeing the mod.

No discernable change whatsoever.

Yup. At least not change that could just as easily be attrubuted to statistical noise.

Since Biden is losing I will only consider events that could make Trump lose, rather than the numerous possible events than could make Biden lose big, rather than by the slim margins that it currently looks like.

And frankly, I see only one truly realistic scenario that could upend Trumps campaign and that is a MASSIVE health scare or death. And frankly, such a scenario probably leads to Trumps VP being the candidate and winning due to sympathy voting. I am pretty confident that neither the recent conviction nor a possible N-word tape leak will make any significant difference and the three trials that actually COULD potentially make a difference, won't happen before the election, which is actually a massive SCANDAL. I really have no idea how the jan 6 or Georgia cases, which we've known about for over 3 years, still haven't made their way to the courts. That is just ridiculous.

So realistically speaking, I think this election is more or less over and yes, I would absolutely LOVE to be proven wrong on this, since another Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster and likely signal the end of the western era of global politics.

Northern European.

Early voting day:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1797182886119899298

President and Prime Minister among the 252,000 voters who can vote in advance today

252,209 voters are registered to vote early today. President Marcelo and PM Montenegro are among those who registered to vote early. Montenegro voted this morning in Espinho city, Aveiro district, while President Marcelo is expected to vote later in the day.

Homosexual binary trans woman.

Did they find dirt? I thought he was pretty clean - particularly compared to some of the guys in his intake. Best I can tell, the only colour in the reporting on Bell was his remarkable record of success on BBC quiz shows.

Anyway, his retirement was a bit of a shock. He was on the campaign trail and making positive noises about his future in politics less than 48 hours before he handed in his notice.

One of his 'quiz' show successes was Deal or No Deal, on which he won £25,000 in 2006. That was exactly around the time when I was a regular viewer of it. Even if I didn't watch his own game, contestants were in the 'wings' (I'm probably now talking a foreign language to those who aren't familiar with DoND) for multiple weeks' worth of episodes so I would have seen him at that time.

Didn't know this and looked it and found the episode he was on. I realise now I remember him - being Irish and about 10, I found it weird the way Noel pronounced his name (it's pronounced Arron in Ireland). Also features the legendary Lucy, who was 50 shows waiting to get her chance in the chair - and proceeded to win £5. Must be one of the few contestants who went onto be famous for other things - the other well known one is Olly Murs (who won £10).

Looking at him, he doesn't ring any Bells (sorry!). I certainly remember Lucy. DoND was something that I discovered pretty early on - maybe within the first couple of months of it in late 2005. Then it suddenly became kind of a cultural phenomenon in 2006 and had impressive viewing figures given its mid-afternoon timeslot and the fact that it was on a channel that most people don't instinctively tune into. What helped it was probably the timing - Richard Whiteley (long-time original host of Countdown and effectively the face of Channel 4) had passed away in the summer of 2005 and was replaced by Des Lynam (who was a good football presenter but not as good at presenting a game show). DoND filled something of a gap.

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

Bumping for when we receive the final poll results for the last round of voting that just concluded.  I am curious, by the way, to see if the BJP has received the 40 seats in the south this guy mentioned should be their target.

That's a really informative overview that frankly puts to shame a lot of Western election coverage, but... is it me or does the background music sound weirdly ominous for what's supposed to be a dispassionate electoral analysis?