The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Ah, I'm sorry. What are your rules again (could you please provide me with a link)? I'd like to be able to refer to them over the next few days.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

Corollary to the First Rule:  "Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly."
 
J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."
 
J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections:  "Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization."


 

[krazen1211]

VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.



Glorious news!

[rob in cal]

    Just heard a hilarious claim by Stephanie Cutter, an Obama campaign deputy director on the radio news.  She acknowledged its a close race, but said that in every battleground state Dems are ahead two to one in early voting.  Wonder if she's been smoking the same stuff Dick Morris has been, just the Dem version of it.  I do believe Obama has a lead in battleground early voting at least in some states anyway but not two to one.

[pepper11]

VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.



Glorious news!

SURGING!

[pepper11]

Very good simplified analysis of who is winning early voting. Its from the Atlantic, who has had strong learn to the left for the last 5 years. But it seems to be a very fair analysis.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

NC- Romney
FL - Romney
CO - Romney

IA - Obama
NV - Obama

OH- possibly Obama (but she really bases this on polling, not voting)

VA, WI, MI, PA, NH - draw or inconclusive or doesn't matter b/c there is minimal early vote.

[Ljube]

Very good simplified analysis of who is winning early voting. Its from the Atlantic, who has had strong learn to the left for the last 5 years. But it seems to be a very fair analysis.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

NC- Romney
FL - Romney
CO - Romney

IA - Obama
NV - Obama

OH- possibly Obama (but she really bases this on polling, not voting)

VA, WI, MI, PA, NH - draw or inconclusive or doesn't matter b/c there is minimal early vote.

I made the same conclusions.

[pepper11]

Question: Regarding Ohio party ID. If you voted D in 08 and DID NOT vote in 2010 primary, are you considered Independent or Dem.

[5280]

Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

[Cliffy]

Question: Regarding Ohio party ID. If you voted D in 08 and DID NOT vote in 2010 primary, are you considered Independent or Dem.

Dem, goes back to the last way you voted.  So yeah there will be crossover coming around this time

[Cliffy]

VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.



Glorious news!

GOP has made up 8% on the Dems vs 08 from what I saw overall as of today.

[Cliffy]

So my best friend lives in Charlotte he was saying he heard today on the radio that Dem campaigners were pulling out of NC...... anyone else hear anything.  It is pretty much gone.

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[5280]

Anybody going to answer my question?

[Minnesota Mike]

Washoe County Nevada

Tonight (Early Votes)

Total 14,234

Dem 5,343
Rep 5,348

Total (all Early Votes + Absentees thru Thur)

Total 124,499

Dem 50,269
Rep 50,219

Turnout

69% of 2008 total turnout. 

So be basically we have a tie, which is good for Obama. He does not need to win Washoe, he just has to hold Romney's advantage down to less than about 5%.

[Lief 🗽]

Arizona doesn't publish early vote numbers at all, as far as I can tell. Texas does, but there's no party registration in Texas, so all they publish are the county by county vote totals.

Wow, Republicans won Washoe today by five votes. Super close!

[J. J.]

Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

TX only gives the the 15 biggest counties with no partisan breakdown.  It's at 34.3.  http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov1.shtml

AZ has nothing.

[J. J.]

Very good simplified analysis of who is winning early voting. Its from the Atlantic, who has had strong learn to the left for the last 5 years. But it seems to be a very fair analysis.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

NC- Romney
FL - Romney
CO - Romney

IA - Obama
NV - Obama

OH- possibly Obama (but she really bases this on polling, not voting)

VA, WI, MI, PA, NH - draw or inconclusive or doesn't matter b/c there is minimal early vote.

Good article, though I'd disagree about IA.  The Democrats have been steadily declining and their absentee application advantage has failed to translate into votes cast.

I would note that NJ will have early voting to offset the hurricane disruption. 

[Seriously?]

Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

There's just info on Maricopa Co. for AZ. Tx just releases its 15 largest cities. I don't have th expertise to contrast and compare. Here's the raw data.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Cliffy]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

[Seriously?]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

[Lief 🗽]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

Um, they are? After twenty-three days of early voting, there 36,578 votes (according to that PDF at least... I'm pretty sure there are a lot more than that). After twenty-three days of early voting in 2008 there were 16,991 votes (again, according to that PDF... there were actually a lot more than that). According to the GMU site, there have been 196,844 votes in Cuyahoga last time it was updated, so again I have no idea what that PDF means.

[Cliffy]

In house early voting.

and on GMUs site Cuyahoga is down 10% overall early vote vs 08 at this point.

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

Um, they are? After twenty-three days of early voting, there 36,578 votes (according to that PDF at least... I'm pretty sure there are a lot more than that). After twenty-three days of early voting in 2008 there were 16,991 votes (again, according to that PDF... there were actually a lot more than that). According to the GMU site, there have been 196,844 votes in Cuyahoga last time it was updated, so again I have no idea what that PDF means.

[Lief 🗽]

Rumors that Democrats had a massive final day in Clark County, netting 9,600 votes and ending with a total margin of over 70k. If that's the case, then it's about time to call the state for Obama. And Heller's in trouble.

[Lief 🗽]

Confirmed!

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Nevada is gone for Romney. The question is whether or not it's gone for Heller.

[Reds4]

Agree on this one... Romney needs to just give up on Nevada... out of reach.

Confirmed!

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Nevada is gone for Romney. The question is whether or not it's gone for Heller.