SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[EPG]

I always assumed the Centre took the volatile non-socialist vote that Professor Ohlin occupied since the war, then lost it to the Moderates as they, well, became more moderate while winning most of the internal debates among the right over time.

[EPG]

Ah, that makes sense.

So Centre voters didn't jump to a similarly moderate party, but rather to a party that would deliver the non-socialist policies they wanted, while opinion was turning to the right following the 70s crisis, as in most democracies.

I didn't guess that urbanisation mattered to the Centre in that period so much, since they only really gained new support in the late 1960s and lost it all as they stayed in government. However, in the post-war long run, it's clear that the People's and Centre parties each diminished over time after their leadership of the non-socialist bloc, while the Moderates instead consolidated their leadership.

[EPG]

More importantly, most polls say everyone will get over the threshold, except Feminists.

[EPG]

isn't it primarily S's fault if they can only muster 29% of the vote while being the serious party that has governed Sweden for forty years ? Isn't it their job to convince voters that they are the credible alternative, and not FI or any other option ?

Yes, and yes.

If there is a problem, it is the arbitrary percentage threshold, not the existence of parties or people who support parties below that threshold.

Even if politics were just about policy, look across the North Sea to the UK. UKIP gets issues on the agenda that other parties would prefer to ignore, even though UKIP will win very few, if any, Westminster seats.