Part II - The Kasich Path to Victory
1. 1,237 Delegates
Many comments are raising the fact that Kasich cannot mathematically reach 1,237 delegates, before the convention. While that is true, it really does not matter because realistically (as opposed to theoretically) at this point nobody can. Cruz certainly can't do it, with the three of them still competing, and while Trump could come very close, it is highly unlikely that he will. Therefore this one is going to the Convention, where nobody would have the necessary votes on the first ballot.
2. Convention Environment
The GOP Convention is being held in Cleveland and organized by the Ohio Republican party, which is loyal to Kasich. That alone gives Kasich some procedural advantages. By that time, Trump's negatives will begin to be felt in the media and with voters, especially the independent swing voters. Democrats will be playing up his negatives and running ads. GOP will be genuinely looking who can get elected, and the delegates would vote in subsequent ballots, not out of loyalty to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but out of necessity to try and win the Presidency, and hold its control of Congress.
3. Later Ballot Choices
After the initial ballots, the delegates will have a choice to nominate someone else, other than the three candidates. However that course of action would compromise the GOP Candidate from the start (the Democrats would have a field day with someone like Romney who"didn't run but used backroom deals"). To have any general election credibility, the only candidate which makes sense is one of the aforementioned three! And as I said, the only electable one is Kasich. Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot, Kasich will eventually be the nominee!
Yes. And as I mentioned elsewhere, in the last 150 years, the GOP has had
eight contested conventions, of which
five ended up with a nominee other than the guy that was the frontrunner going in to that convention. So it's not like Governor Kasich is out of the question. I'm holding out hope that the #NeverTrump folks will find Kasich...
