So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I've just read that the Georgians are planning to withdraw 2000 of their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan and bring them back home in the next few days.

Yeah, when Sakachvili sent them to Irak he said something like that: "It will be a good training for them [georgian soldiers]".

I saw tonight that Russia sent tanks in South Ossetia. To engage a fight against the georgian army? Let us see...

Anyway, I think the reaction of the whole West, so especially the one of the US, will be interesting to follow. Georgia is an ally they want in NATO. On the other hand, West is sensed to defend freedom and democracy by which South Ossetian said they wanna be part of Russia, as long as we can trust the fairness of the 1992 referendum.

For sure I don't think that these foreground considerations are important for Western leaders. Would US/West have reasons to support Georgia against Russia? If yes, how far? Personally, I would be very surprised of it, I don't see an important reason for some consesquences which could be too much big. Georgia might be alone against Russia, let us see...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

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erm, you do realize Russia didn't start this, right?

Each side accuses the other of starting it.

But I think no one has any doubts that in a full fledged war between Russia and Georgia, Russia wins, hence the concern with what Russia will do. Technically South Ossetia was a part of the Georgian SSR, and broke away in the 1990s.

If we really want to spread blame around, Stalin started it. After all, Ossetia was not a part of Georgia until he shoved it into the Georgian SSR.

That's right, it seems that Caucasian borders have been created to create problems...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

This is what happens when you steal the name of a U.S. state.

Interesting, it could be effectively US which would have asked Saakachvili to attack, because they knew that Russia could erase them and so that punish them for this story of name, hmm, why not, geopolitics is sometimes so machiavellian...!

It's sad to see that that the U.S. media cares much more about John Edwards and his infidelities than it does about the situation in Georgia.

Although we should expect nothing less, I suppose.

Wow, I didn't know it was so much! Though my country has no lessons to give...

TV news sucks.

Yeah but that are them who "make" the news, that are them who are listened by a large majority of peoples, that are them who create the image of the world.

Today the reality no more matters, it is the image of the reality which matters, an image given by mass media, and by TV first. I don't say I'm OK with it, I note it.

Poor Georgians and Ossetians...knowing they're being cannon fodder in a game between the Russians and the West, and that they're stuck.

No one's talked about it yet, but this is the reason for all this fuss:



It's the only pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Western market that doesn't go through Russia or Iran, hence its importance.

Yeah, I forgot this one.

The questions would be:

Could this conflict make enough big troubles to make Western interests, like this one, in danger?

If yes, how far is West ready to go to defend these interests?

Then, I consider that Saakachvili is a very bad leader who can take bad and hazardous decisions which can have heavy consequences, and at least for the population of his country and for its soldiers.

I expect him to have done it to force a Western support to his actions no matter the Russian response. Because, unless he is insane, he must have expected that by doing this there was a lot of chance for a Russian military response and he must have been aware that alone he had no chances.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

      It just occurred to me that this might not get much play in the United States because people here might think that it's Georgia the state going to war with Russia (since Americans don't know geography).

With hope this to only be irony...

The South Ossetian war seems to be competing with the Olympic Games in German news coverage. Yesterday's evening news on ARD showed a five-second-teaser of the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, then five minutes on the situation in Georgia and then five minutes on the Olympic Games. The Saturday morning news on n-tv decided to report on the Olympic Games first and then on the Georgia concflict.



SPIEGEL ONLINE is a bit different though.

First article (the moment I'm writing this): War in Georgia.

Second article: McCain's and Obama's reaction to the situation in Georgia.

Third article: Andrea Ypsilanti is still planning to get elected minister-president of Hesse with the votes of the Left Party.

Fourth article: A German citizen who had protested on the Tiananmen Square was arrested by Chinese authorities.

Fifth article: A report on how the average Chinese is following the Olympic Games.

In France, on the main TV news, the most watched, those of TF1, which begins at 08h00 pm and finishes at about 08h30, maximum 08h35, what I saw must have lasted no more than one minute and not before 08h20.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Here is a video news report on MSNBC from (I guess their partner) ITV:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26095477#26095477

Right after that is an interview with Richard Holbrooke, the former U.N. Ambassador. Sounds like the U.S. will be 100% behind Georgia.

If West supports Georgia, at best South-Ossetia go back to Russia by diplomatic ways, at worst, I let your imagination work...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The Russians and the South Ossetians are claiming that 1500 people were killed during the shelling of Tskhinvali, which has yet to be confirmed. But I've noticed that some media are trying to twist this into a version, where the Russians are responsible for the deaths. For example, see here.

The trend was already here in western medias, so now with a war, we have to expect it to become bigger. Bad thing because it actually seems that the responsible of all this is Saakachvili more than others, and to make this guy avoided his responsibilities is encouraging him to continue his bad course. Taking away from Saakachvili the weight he can have on this crisis could really be welcome...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We'll turn our backs on them like we (not just the US, the West at large) have done many times before all over the world.  If we have nothing to gain but the liberty of others, we're not very consistent about helping.

dude, Georgia is the one that started this conflict.

Yeah, how dare they try to impose their sovereignity over their own territory?

It depends if you recognize or not referendums of 1992. I don't say it to support a part, that's just an element of the conflict.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We'll turn our backs on them like we (not just the US, the West at large) have done many times before all over the world.  If we have nothing to gain but the liberty of others, we're not very consistent about helping.

dude, Georgia is the one that started this conflict.

Dude, Russia is the one ruling over the oil in the region with an iron fist.

Oh, and for sure West doesn't...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I actually agree with StatesRights here, Putin's Russia is super manipulative and wants a large Russian sphere. I am surprised they didn't take advantage of the ethnic Russian riots in Estonia.

Yeah, we're effectively speaking about Russia (where the hell are the soviets on Earth??? In the French LCR maybe...)

Estonia? Russia is wanna be imperialist, but not crazy, Estonia was a Web War, and for a while it had consequences for the Estonian Web.

The interests of the west are more in line with helping the people then harming them. Unlike the Soviets. See what the Soviets did to the Ukraine over energy a few years back.

West hasn't an only strategy, it is more pragmatic than that...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

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More simply, I would say: War is a part of politics.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Luckily, France, in the name of EU, comes in the game and say:

"Please turn back to your positions of before the war"

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080809/wl_afp/georgiasossetiarussiaunrest_080809203148;_ylt=Av1VBQTjbEEFSUJapBQW8Z6s0NUE

...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Why should Georgia, or any other state, have to conduct its affairs around what pleases Moscow? Or Washington?

Doesn't it work for every weak state?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Luckily, France, in the name of EU, comes in the game and say:

"Please turn back to your positions of before the war"

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080809/wl_afp/georgiasossetiarussiaunrest_080809203148;_ylt=Av1VBQTjbEEFSUJapBQW8Z6s0NUE

...

What did you expect Kouchner to say? Kill all Russians? Kill all Georgians? Kill all South Ossetis?

I would have expected him to propose serious and accurate things. With what happened the situation just can't no more be as before, and it seems so evident for me that I wonder why I write it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Last events:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_south_ossetia;_ylt=Asj5_XWxYUqWqdE3ora8ghqs0NUE

Now that Georgia has accepted to militarily leave South Ossetia, the crisis could go down.

Now we have to know if it is ready do definitely give up its sovereignty on the place given that Russia militarily took it and said that Georgia will now have to give up this province. It seems that it would be the same for Abkhazia.

But before the next security council to speak about all of this, Russia could profit of the fact that things are not yet clear to continue its military actions against Georgia.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!

The problem with these articles, and with this war in general is that we just have: "Georgian official says", "Russian official says", who to trust...?

With hope to have more "according to our reporter..."

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find (or invent) someone to "invite" them in.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

Not worth a nuclear war. And that's what any war between the West and Russia would entail...

Until that come some leaders who would be fascinating by apocalypse...