Biggest "Rising Star" flops

[LabourJersey]

Chris Christie, Anthony Weiner, Lil' Marco and Bobby Jindal all fit the bill. I also think Rahm Emmanuel fits the bill pretty nicely--I remember in 2011 he was pretty heavily hyped, and there was even talk of him running for POTUS in 2016. Now of course he's a disgraced mayor who barely won against a total nobody.

[Pink Panther]

The biggest recent flop has to be Jon Ossoff

Things have changed, my friend.

[Roll Roons]

The biggest recent flop has to be Jon Ossoff

Things have changed, my friend.

Imagine going from being best known for losing the first big election of the Trump era to being the one who took away Mitch's gavel. Hell of a journey.

[Ferguson97]

Marco Rubio, John Edwards...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

How is Ossoff considered a flop, he is elected senator of Georgia

My picks:
Tulsi Gabbard
Bobby Jindal as some have said
Pat Buchanan?
Sarah Palin as some have said
Jeb!

In some ways, not entirely a flop but for presidential races certainly a flop:
Rubio
Christie
Walker
Ryan

Foreign countries:
AKK lol
Renzi

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How is Ossoff considered a flop, he is elected senator of Georgia

Back in 2017 things looked quite bleak for him and there was a lot of criticism he got, for his role in the GA special election (which was seen as having been lost by him). If I recall correctly, I was one of the few people defending him back then, saying that he wasn't very bad at politics or whatnot.

[Cassius]

From recent British political history: Stephen Crabb, Andrea Leadsom, Gavin Williamson, Rory Stewart, Jo Swinson, Derek McKay, Owen Smith and, of course, the one and only Chuka Umunna.

[Xing]

Republicans: Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, John Kasich, Chris Christie (arguably the entire 2016 Republican field), Martha McSally

Democrats: Bruce Braley, Martin O’Malley, Patrick Murphy, Beto O’Rourke, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bullock, Amy McGrath, Max Rose, Abb- (oops, almost said Finkenauer, but caught myself.)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

From recent British political history: Stephen Crabb, Andrea Leadsom, Gavin Williamson, Rory Stewart, Jo Swinson, Derek McKay, Owen Smith and, of course, the one and only Chuka Umunna.

Amber Rudd perhaps too?

[Vosem]

How are at least a third of the people described as "flops" in this thread still holding office (and often still have a marked upward trajectory)?

[VPH]

-Kathleen Kane is a great example of how a scandal can make a flop
-Artur Davis
-Jack Conway
-Lucy Flores
-Richard Ojeda
-Donna Edwards
-TW Shannon
-An article in The Hill described Joe Crowley as a star in 2017. Oof.

[Mr. Morden]

Republicans: Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, John Kasich, Chris Christie (arguably the entire 2016 Republican field), Martha McSally

Democrats: Bruce Braley, Martin O’Malley, Patrick Murphy, Beto O’Rourke, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bullock, Amy McGrath, Max Rose, Abb- (oops, almost said Finkenauer, but caught myself.)

This seems like a weird list.  Many of these people don't seem like they ever really rated much as "rising stars", at least not on the same playing field in which they "flopped".  For example, in the 90s, Kasich was more well known than the average Congressman, sure.  But not well known enough that many ever really expected him to be nominated for president.  (Maybe Vice President, but that's always a shot in the dark.). So no one was surprised that his 2000 presidential race was a dud.

And then in his second political life in the 2010s, no one expected him to get very far in the 2016 presidential primaries, and I think for a couple of those early 10 person debates, he was on the bubble for even qualifying for the debate, as opposed to being pushed off to the kiddie table debate.  I'd say coming in 3rd or 4th in the primaries counts as beating expectations for him.

This (and some other posts in the thread) seems more like a list of people who got at least a little bit of national attention among political observers at some point in time, and didn't win the highest office that they ever ran for.  But that's true of a huge number of politicians from American history.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How are at least a third of the people described as "flops" in this thread still holding office (and often still have a marked upward trajectory)?

The most common name in this thread seems to be Jon Ossoff which is hillarious in hindsight. Anyway in Singapore, Jamus Lim has been very invisible despite being hyped on the campagin trail and having built a cult following.

[Illiniwek]

If we are talking presidential aspirations, the name that comes to mind is Rick Perry. I was certain he was going to enter the race, clobber the field, and defeat Obama. Then he said oops and free fell out of contention, never to be seriously considered again. I really, really thought he was going to be the real deal though.

[Mr. Morden]

If we are talking presidential aspirations, the name that comes to mind is Rick Perry. I was certain he was going to enter the race, clobber the field, and defeat Obama. Then he said oops and free fell out of contention, never to be seriously considered again. I really, really thought he was going to be the real deal though.

I guess there are two categories of “rising star flops” on the presidential campaign stage.  Generally, presidential candidates are at least somewhat popular among whatever constituency that elected them locally to begin with.  But in terms of how that translates nationally, there are two ways things can go awry.

On the one hand, you have someone like Rick Perry, who actually did lead some polls for a while, and was a co-frontrunner for the nomination with Romney for a time.  But he screwed it up, and his star faded during the campaign (which actually started before “oops”).  In those cases, I wouldn’t say it’s so much about pundits misjudging things, because the candidate in question *was* popular with primary voters nationally, at least for a while.

But then you’ve got people like I guess Jindal, whose presidential campaigns never took off in the first place, and the idea that his campaign was ever going to catch fire was a big pundit miscalculation.  In that case, the “rising star” status was pundit groupthink.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How are at least a third of the people described as "flops" in this thread still holding office (and often still have a marked upward trajectory)?

I think a big issue might be a political version of the Peter Principal, for example Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand used to be considered rising stars, and in a sense they did end up well, both have themselves Senate seats that they have basically a lifetime hold on, which is pretty good for politics. But their Presidential campaigns show they won't go any higher. So they're obviously not rising stars anymore because of the "rising" part, but flops? By that standard the only real "rising star" of the century who didn't flop is Barack Obama.

[Wormless Gourd]

Classic answer is Dan Quayle but also:
Rick Santorum - Kinda long career but especially after '12 people assumed he was gonna have his presidential moment and it never occurred, ducked out after Iowa in '16. Silently fizzled out and holds no office now. Scott Walker similar story but didn't even make it to Iowa and was quietly and uneventfully defeated in 2018.
Beto(assuming he doesn't try to run again) - The media coverage was painfully glowing and he was just so mediocre, and lost anyway but this describes a lot of '18 Ds. Lost to Ted Cruz. Failed presidential run. Very forced appeal to young people that didn't pan out. Whatever he did/wanted to do, Buttigieg did better.

[Roll Roons]

I think Beto O'Rourke is the best answer to this question. I don't think many people were actually expecting him to win, but to come within 3 points of winning as a Democrat in Texas is no small feat. If anything, his star burned even brighter after that. But he waited too long to get into the presidential race, and by that time his moment had passed and he resorted to making a total fool of himself to save his dying campaign. It didn't work, and he certainly will never win statewide in Texas.

Another one: Rudy Giuliani. America's Mayor to Four Seasons Total Landscaping. And now he may be going to prison.