Ireland General Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The mildly malicious might wish to point out that there has been something of a cultural disconnect between that section of Dublin and the rest of Ireland for quite a while: it just so happens that the bulk of the Dublin Rathmines constituency that returned the one Unionist MP for a territorial seat outside Ulster in 1918 can now be found in Dublin Bay South (along with a lot of other territory, naturally).

[ObserverIE]

No, not really. The Irish Clegg was Éamonn Gilmore.

And the Irish Labour Party hasn't really recovered, and quite possibly never will.

Kelly was inching - well kind of inching - towards refocussing on economic issues, but the problems were a) that he's still remembered and disliked by the general public for his role in the coalition, and b) he lacks even basic manners and thereby antagonised his party colleagues (having met him briefly at the famous long count in Longford-Westmeath in 2016 I can confirm the latter personally).

The Dublin Bay South by-election was an absolutely Pyrrhic victory for them. It's a very demographically odd constituency; a quite deprived working-class minority in council estates in the city centre, a large and very affluent Old Money majority once you travel beyond the canals, and very little in between (and much of what middle-to-lower-income demographic there is is not franchised because they're not Irish or UK citizens). It's rather like Richmond Park or possibly Wentworth (Australian readers can correct me here). It has a self-image (at least in the western parts of the constituency in Rathmines and Ranelagh and the area between the South Circular Road and the canal) of being "progressive" and it suited Bacik down to the ground once she was first mover for the by-election. But the south-eastern quadrant of Dublin is a complete demographic outlier in the 26 counties and Bacik would be absolutely unelectable anywhere else. The by-election gave her an image as a "winner" and the fact that she's personally personable meant that she was then in a prime position to take over when Kelly was ousted, but she has zero, zilch, nada appeal to anyone outside that "progressive" middle-class academic/media/NGO bubble.

PS: And the boundary changes absolutely screw them in that Duncan Smith, who is the only figure young enough not to be associated with the Gilmore years and grounded enough to have possible wider appeal, sees his constituency split in half and redrawn as a 3-seater where his vote last time was about 8%.

How do you see the differences (such as they are) between Labour and the Social Democrats?

Principally, age (SocDems are a much younger demographic) and idealism untempered by reality versus a reputation for cynicism. The SocDems have if anything even less of a residual working-class vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

[ObserverIE]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

Yes, although that may mainly be due to not having been in government. It is very much a Student Left "we like nice things and don't like horrible ones" party.

[PSOL]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

Yes, although that may mainly be due to not having been in government. It is very much a Student Left "we like nice things and don't like horrible ones" party.

That sort of milquetoast attitude seems like a good idea considering the major parties descend from warlord cliques and the other parties are granola neolibs, abortion haters, blairites, and a Trotskyist coalition.

[LabourJersey]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

Yes, although that may mainly be due to not having been in government. It is very much a Student Left "we like nice things and don't like horrible ones" party.

That sort of milquetoast attitude seems like a good idea considering the major parties descend from warlord cliques and the other parties are granola neolibs, abortion haters, blairites, and a Trotskyist coalition.

Calling FF and FG "descendants of warlord cliques" makes them much cooler than they actually are.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

Yes, although that may mainly be due to not having been in government. It is very much a Student Left "we like nice things and don't like horrible ones" party.

That sort of milquetoast attitude seems like a good idea considering the major parties descend from warlord cliques and the other parties are granola neolibs, abortion haters, blairites, and a Trotskyist coalition.

Calling FF and FG "descendants of warlord cliques" makes them much cooler than they actually are.

To be fair, 1920s Ireland had a pretty uncool class of warlord.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aren't the SocDems (their name notwithstanding) clearly to the left of Labour economically?

Yes, although that may mainly be due to not having been in government. It is very much a Student Left "we like nice things and don't like horrible ones" party.

That sort of milquetoast attitude seems like a good idea considering the major parties descend from warlord cliques and the other parties are granola neolibs, abortion haters, blairites, and a Trotskyist coalition.

Ah well, at least the (hilariously misnamed) Progressive Democrats are no more.

[MayorCarcetti]

Rose Dugdale, a fascinating figure of the Troubles, has died.

An English heiress and debutante who was educated in Oxford, she rebelled against her upbringing and became involved in the IRA in the early 70s. In January 1974, she was involved in a plot with her future husband Eddie Gallagher to drop bombs in milk churns on the RUC station in Strabane (a day she later said was the best of her life). Even more memorably in April, she took part in a raid which stole a Vermeer from a Russborough House in Co. Wicklow, with a ransom of £500,000 and the release of the Price sisters (who'd been convicted of IRA bombings). The pictures were retrieved a week later and Dugdale (who was pregnant at the time) was arrested.

She served six years in prison during which her and Gallagher (who'd been imprisoned for the kidnapping of Dutch industrialist Tiede Herrema) became the first prisoners to marry in an Irish prison. Released in 1980, she remained involved in the cause ever since.

[Torrain]

Varadkar to stand down as Taoiseach and FG leader.

Was this telegraphed at all? Seems to have come out of nowhere.

[Mike88]

Varadkar to stand down as Taoiseach and FG leader.

Was this telegraphed at all? Seems to have come out of nowhere.

Will he stand down now, or only when the next election is schedule, March 2025?

Interesting that the 3 European PMs with Indian ancestry, Costa, Varadkar and Sunak, are all poised to leave office roughly at the same time.

[YL]

Varadkar to stand down as Taoiseach and FG leader.

Was this telegraphed at all? Seems to have come out of nowhere.

Will he stand down now, or only when the next election is schedule, March 2025?

Interesting that the 3 European PMs with Indian ancestry, Costa, Varadkar and Sunak, are all poised to leave office roughly at the same time.

As FG leader immediately, as Taoiseach as soon as his successor is chosen.

[MayorCarcetti]

Varadkar to stand down as Taoiseach and FG leader.

Was this telegraphed at all? Seems to have come out of nowhere.

Nope, totally kept under wraps until shortly before announcement. Irish Independent a 'political earthquake' announcement about to be made followed shortly afterwards by the news. Nobody expected it at all - some rumours of June election but not of Leo resigning.

Quite shocked tbh - while polls weren't favourable towards, general expectation was he'd remain until election at least. The referendums didn't help but would be surprised if that would force him out. No job lined up he says, could a personal decision

[Logical]

Elections after new FG leader chosen?

[CumbrianLefty]

He admitted in his statement that FG's immediate electoral prospects were pretty bleak.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Guess he wanted a trip to the US before he left office.

[Chickpeas]

Any chance Varadkar is planning to run for President either in 2025 or at a later date?

[ObserverIE]

Any chance Varadkar is planning to run for President either in 2025 or at a later date?

More likely to be eyeing up a position in Brussels or in California.

[MayorCarcetti]

Any chance Varadkar is planning to run for President either in 2025 or at a later date?

More likely to be eyeing up a position in Brussels or in California.

Yeah European position is the obvious one at moment. FF are due the commissioner position, but perhaps Varadkar is aiming toward President of the Council (still seems too soon to count his chickens though).

President is very unlikely - it's a popularity contest by and large and he's a deeply unpopular man. In any case, Mairead McGuinness is all but a shoo-in to be their candidate.

[MayorCarcetti]

Inevitably talk has already turned to who will succeed Varadkar and the big favourite is Simon Harris, the current Minister for Higher Education and previously Minister for Health. Simon Coveney, who lost the 2017 leadership election to Varadkar has already counted himself out.

[Lord Halifax]

Inevitably talk has already turned to who will succeed Varadkar and the big favourite is Simon Harris, the current Minister for Higher Education and previously Minister for Health. Simon Coveney, who lost the 2017 leadership election to Varadkar has already counted himself out.

A college dropout (after one year..) as Minister for Higher Education.

Very "anglo" name. I know many Irish Catholics have stereotypically English names, but is a Protestant?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harris is primarily/historically a surname of the West Country and South Wales, which is why it's also common in Leinster. Consider also e.g. Morgan and so on.

[MayorCarcetti]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

[ObserverIE]

Inevitably talk has already turned to who will succeed Varadkar and the big favourite is Simon Harris, the current Minister for Higher Education and previously Minister for Health. Simon Coveney, who lost the 2017 leadership election to Varadkar has already counted himself out.

A college dropout (after one year..) as Minister for Higher Education.

Very "anglo" name. I know many Irish Catholics have stereotypically English names, but is a Protestant?

No, a Catholic (at least nominally so) who is, I think, from what was originally a Dublin family that moved out to the exurbs of Greystones.

A hyper-ambitious empty suit and a perpetual plotter and leaker of material from Cabinet to his favourites in the media (the cultivation of the media, along with an obsession with social media, has been a consistent theme of his political career).

Was an absolute disaster as Minister of Health but was rescued from the point of view of the national media by his championing of REPEAL in the 2018 referendum which cemented his appeal to a heavily female and socially-liberal polcorr class.

Has spent his time since his appointment as Minister for Higher and Further Education (arguably not deserving in itself of a separate Cabinet position) making feel-good announcements (often the same announcements on multiple occasions) but without much in the way of delivery. Stepped in as Minister of Justice (Home/Interior Minister) when the incumbent was out on her second maternity leave and was seen as an improvement but that was a very low bar to cross.

In brief, not a fan.

[ObserverIE]

Harris is primarily/historically a surname of the West Country and South Wales, which is why it's also common in Leinster. Consider also e.g. Morgan and so on.

Harris:



Morgan:



One complication is that many "English" names can often be anglicisations of underlying Gaelic names and in the case of Morgan it's frequently an anglicisation of Ó Muireagáin (principally based in the Louth/Armagh/Down area and otherwise anglicised as Merrigan).