Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.
I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:
Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG
But isn't the whole point of sites like 538 to be much smarter and insightful than us mere peons?
They are.
Laughable. Very few on AAD ever wavered on Trump being the nominee since July except in a scenario where it was stolen from him. That is true brilliance. Lief and several others also called Cruz winning Iowa 4 months ahead of that too.
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