Dave's Redistricting App

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's a stab at redistricting SC into 7 districts.



Probably not the real district boundaries as there is a good chance this would put two Representatives in the same district, and I didn't try to gerrymander it into a potential 6 GOP/1 Dem map.

The 6th District remains majority black (53-41) which probably would pass VRA scrutiny, but it could be made blacker and thereby make neighboring seats safer for the GOP by splitting up even more counties than this does.  A 61-34 black majority contiguous district is constructable with no split precincts if you want a really ugly gerrymander.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If SC gets seven seats, the Justice Department will likely demand a second black-majority seat. Thus the Republican legislature will likely turn Spratt's district into a black-majority one in addition to keeping Clyburn's black-majority. This will allow the GOP to strengthen its hold on the remaning five seats.

I don't believe it's possible to create two majority-minority districts in South Carolina.  If it is, it would be a most hellacious gerrymander.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That's really squeaking by with those SC maps, muon. It won't take much of a difference between estimate and reality for those maps to be impossible.

Also your second map has CD 6 and 7 reversed, since I imagine that the GOP wouldn't be so petty as to make Clyburn change his stationary.

Also if population inflows resume after an economic recovery what you have as CD 6 in both maps would definitely not be majority black by 2020 and might well be majority white by then.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The maps on the link I showed were better. BTW, you can always gerrymander if necessary. In addition, if one of those districts stops having a black majority in 2020 or beyond, then policymakers can always dismantle the district at a later date.

First off, what link?  You mentioned a link, but there was no link.  Second, my point was mainly that a barely majority-minority district crafted based on the 2010 data might well have one or more of the five election cycles of its lifetime when it was not actually majority-minority.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm not certain those gerrymanders would pass scrutiny.  They not only have to make monstrous black majority districts, they make monstrous white-majority districts.  I'm going to see if I can make a more reasonable gerrymander.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd like for him to go back over the South Carolina data.  He has a number of precincts in growing areas that have been split because of the growth still as a single precinct.  To be fair, he might not have that data, especially at the demographic level, since precinct splitting happens in each election cycle, but some of the splits since 2000 he doesn't note have been in place for a couple of elections now.  My own county will be newly splitting four precincts for the 2010 general election cycle (and would like to do ten more but haven't found suitable places for the new precincts to hold balloting yet.)  The goal is a maximum of 2,000 voters per precinct.