UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[MaxQue]

The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

Becoming a Blair clone.

[MaxQue]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

9 June confirmed.

[MaxQue]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

9 June confirmed.

Despite the date of emission of the writ allowing an election on 9 June, the council called it for the 16 June.

[MaxQue]

Interestingly, Dan Jarvis doesn't seem to be resigning as MP, despite being elected as Sheffield regional mayor.

The NEC tried to pass a rule that would have forced him to resign as an MP (or withdraw) but virtually all of the Labour MPs/Councillors in the region kicked up a fuss, and Jarvis was allowed to remain an MP.

It's more than the NEC tried to apply the rule that bans having two paid elective jobs (councillors are not paid, they have allowances according to law), but it appears Sheffield regional mayor isn't paid and so the rule doesn't apply.

[MaxQue]

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard.

Yeah, no, that's still risible. Most of the constituency has been entirely English speaking for centuries - Radnor especially for a very, very long time. Most families have more to do with Herefordshire than they do with anywhere in other parts of Wales. Nationalism has no emotional pull whatsoever.

They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

If there's a by-election in Brecon & Radnor the LibDems won't campaign on Brexit. They'll campaign on how the Tory incumbent is a crook and how you should vote for that nice farmer/farmers wife/daughter they're running who is extremely local and who probably knows your father/mother/daughter/son.

The LD candidate is actually Jane Dodds, leader of Welsh LDs, former councillor in Richmond-upon-Thames, 3 times candidate in Montgomeryshire and raised in Wrexham. Doesn't really fit the profile.

[MaxQue]

Scottish Parliament by-election to be held in Shetland, after the resignation of Tavish Scott (former leader of the Scottish LDs, MSP since the inception of the Parliament in 1999) to become head of external affairs for Scottish Rugby.