Bulgaria 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Takes place May 12th:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2013

Last poll from April 29:

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (populist pro-mafia, pro-corruption party) 28.3%
Bulgarian Socialist Party (prototypical Eastern European post-Communist party) 18.7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (Turkish minority party, the guy who almost got shot is no longer lead, btw) 5.2
Attack (nationalist) 5.2
Movement "Bulgaria of the Citizens" (new Western style conservative party, breakaway from the moribund King Simon II Movement) 4.1
Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (slightly older Western style conservative party, breakaway from UDF)  less than 2%
Union of Democratic Forces (prototypical Eastern European centre-right party that ended Communism but now everyone hates them because of shock therapy) pollster didn't bother to mention them

Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) won the last election but their leader Boyko Borisov was forced to resign earlier this year because of cartoonish corruption. Currently, a caretaker government of former GERBer technocrats is in power.

[GMantis]

I was thinking of making a thread for this for a long time and of course someone beat me

Perhaps I can still add something to the amusing, though rather short description of the parties by WillipsBrighton.

GERB - basically Boyko Borisov's tool to take and keep power. Besides him, it's mostly an appalling collection of mediocrities and lackeys. They present themselves as populists, but in fact are ulta liberals (in the European sense). Borisov's rule has also been the most authoritarian since 1989. And yes, they're deeply connected with the Mafia, though you don't hear much about it from the tame media.

BSP - they are post-Communist, though they are trying to remodel themselves as a modern social democratic party - without much success, though by veering to the right they have lost many of their supporters to various nationalist parties. Their opposition to GERB's government was always rather muted and the fact that their leader is refusing to run for Prime Minister doesn't inspire much confidence (and that his appointed candidate is also very conservative on economics doesn't inspire much enthusiasm among BSP core voters).

MRF - nationalist Turkish party but also as much pro-corruption and pro-Mafia as GERB It's widely considered that the new leader is just for PR purposes and Dogan is still firmly in control behind the scenes. By the way, polls almost always underestimate MRF as their supporters are undersampled and they get many votes from Turkey. For various reasons, they are the most hated party in Bulgaria and most leading parties (with the notable exception of BSP) have declared that they won't ally with them.

Atack - nationalist party, but they unofficially supported Borisov for a long time, which almost led them to extinction, until the recent protests have energized them and they're practically a lock in to enter parliament now.

Movement "Bulgaria of the Citizens" (BDG) - Mostly relies on the personal popularity of Bulgaria's first European commissar and on the remains of the UDF. They are close to the 4% threshold, but will probably enter.

The parties below will probably not enter parliament, though their chances are growing after the recent scandals hitting GERB.

Order, Law and Justice (RZS) -  supposedly a populist party, but mostly the means for their eccentric leader Yane Yanev to enter parliament. They zealosly supported GERB during most of the last four years and most indications are that they will gladly continue in this role if they manage to get in - for which they have a good chance.

Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB) - For all practical purposes a fan club of Ivan Kostov, former prime minister and principal architect of most of the dubious reforms which still shape Bulgarian society today. The fact that his chance to enter parliament is rather low shows well how popular those reforms where. He may have a chance if Borisov is damaged enough by scandals.

National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) - a collection of various nationalist groups, including parts of "Attack", which were alienated by their support of the GERB government. Most notably, they are supported by the cable TV station SKAT which once propeled "Attack" into parliament but broke away from them in 2009.

UDF - Second oldest of the parties currently running, as well as a former party of many of the politicians of the other parties, but now just a pale shadow of its old glory. The were for a long time stronger than DSB, but now that most of their notable personalities have abandoned them and they broke away from their alliance with DSB, they seem to be headed towards the oblivion they should have entered long ago.

Below these are various nationalist and personality parties who have little to none chance to enter parliament, though the so called "company vote" (ie vote buying and the like) shouldn't be discounted.

[Leftbehind]

Cheers for the explanation.

So Bulgaria joins the Eastern Europe trend of Left-less elections.

[Peter the Lefty]

Glad I don't live in Bulgaria.

[ERvND]

During the last days, a big eavesdropping scandal hit GERB. Will it have any impact on the results?

Polls are very mixed. Some predict GERB over 10% in front of BSP, others have them almost dead even.

[GMantis]

Cheers for the explanation.

So Bulgaria joins the Eastern Europe trend of Left-less elections.

Not quite. The BSP has a moderately left-wing platform (very, very moderate as they still propose a flat tax rate for all but a small minority), while the various nationalist parties and protest parties (parties that were formed or claim to represent the mass protest movement) often are very much to the left of BSP, but except for Ataka and perhaps NFSB they have little chance to enter parliament.

During the last days, a big eavesdropping scandal hit GERB. Will it have any impact on the results?

Polls are very mixed. Some predict GERB over 10% in front of BSP, others have them almost dead even.

It has had some effects and in recent polls the margin between BSP and GERB has narrowed.

For example (number of deputies - 240 in total -  in parenthesis):

                  Alpha Research (7-8 May)     Mediana (6-8 May)   Sova Haris (2-7 May)  Gallup Int. *
GERB         33% (96)                               32% (88)                 33.2% (99)                  34.3% (93)
BSP           28% (81)                               31.5% (87)              32.4% (97)                  33.8% (91)
MRF          10% (29)                               11.6% (32)              8.3% (25)                    10.2% (28)
Ataka       7.5% (22)                             8.0% (22)                 6.4% (19)                    5.3% (14)
BDG         4% (12)                                 4% (11)                    3.8%                           5.2% (14)        
RZS         2.7%                                                                       3.8%
DSB                                                       1.9%                         1.7%
NFSB                                                      2.1%                         1%
UDF                                                                                         2.3%

An outlier, NCIOM (who are suspected of being controlled by GERB), has indeed a nearly 10% margin: GERB 34% (101), BSP 25% (74), MRF 13% (38), Ataka 9% (27).

It seems that most of those who are disappointed with GERB either won't vote or will prefer voting for a minor party (with some suggesting as many as 8 parties in parliament), which explains GERB is still consistently in the lead. It has also been suggested that the GERB vote may be inflated, due to voters being reluctant to claim that they oppose them.

* Not affiliated with Gallup, Inc.

[GMantis]

In other news, GERB are retaliating to the eavesdropping scandal by claiming that Sergei Stanishev, the leader of BSP, bought his position of leader of PES by awarding a contract for Bulgarian identity documents to Siemens, which has connections with Hannes Swoboda, the President of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. Stanishev who doesn't seem to be fazed by this rather dubious accusation (as Swoboda pointed out, Stanishev wasn't even nominated by him), has stated that he would give up his parliamentary immunity and challenged the former interior minister Tsvetanov, who is deeply involved in the wiretapping scandal) to do the same.

Regarding the electoral campaign, thankfully this dreary, content-less, debate-less and pointless campaign is ending today, which is the best that can be said about it. Somewhat more interesting is how a new government is going to be formed. As coalitions are not exactly popular among Bulgaria's electorate, all leading have been making solemn vows not to enter into certain (or any) coalitions. In short:

Boyko Borisov has said that he won't ally with anybody (he has backtracked recently to claim that an alliance is possible with a right-wing party)
BSP and MRF have promised won't ally with GERB.
Ataka won't ally with anybody and especially not with GERB and MRF (not that anyone would want to ally with them).
BDG won't ally with GERB, BSP or MRF
The situation is further complicated by the fact that it's very likely that three parties may be needed to form a stable coalition. So it remains to be seen whether one (or all) of the party leaders have been shamelessly lying or whether there will be yet another election...

[Famous Mortimer]

Is the King Simon II Movement still around? I know they changed their name to something more generic but does that party even still exist? Or have they totally changed into the DBG?

[politicus]

What are the reasons Bulgarian voters are voting on such horrible parties? I get that voters are cynical and apathetic by now, but its still surprising that such high numbers support parties that are so objectively awful.

So what factors are at work here. Clientilistic networks where they hope to gain if "their" patron gets in? Media monopolies distorting reality?

[GMantis]

Is the King Simon II Movement still around? I know they changed their name to something more generic but does that party even still exist? Or have they totally changed into the DBG?

Yes, it's now called the National Movement for Stability and Progress (the acronym is the same in Bulgarian) and they're no longer led by Simeon. They're participating in the election together with the People's Party Freedom and Dignity, a breakaway fraction from the MRF.

[GMantis]

What are the reasons Bulgarian voters are voting on such horrible parties? I get that voters are cynical and apathetic by now, but its still surprising that such high numbers support parties that are so objectively awful.

So what factors are at work here. Clientilistic networks where they hope to gain if "their" patron gets in? Media monopolies distorting reality?

There is obviously a lack of choice. At this point all major parties have been discredited at this point but the alternatives are too divided and weak. The mass protests earlier this year were directed against all parties, which had the drawback that they were unable to organize themselves for the election and as a result there are several parties who claim to represent them (though many of these are just of collection of have-been politicians) and of course many simply won't vote due to their disgust with the political system.

Your explanations are partly correct. While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time. Regarding media manipulation, this certainly exists, with most mass media having become extremely pro-GERB and with most polling agencies under control of various parties (very often GERB). Which may explain why GERB still hasn't collapsed despite all the revelations about them.

[GMantis]

Speaking of electoral irregularities, Bulgarian police seized today 350 thousands supposedly defective ballots, which were for some reason kept by the printing house which also made all other ballots. In an interesting coincidence, the owner of this company is a local GERB councilor. In light of this, one wonders how many ballots would have been found if this raid had been carried out earlier...

[Tender Branson]

A relatively close race so far, according to the "temperature" reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bulgaria has an exit-poll ban until the vote is over, but the news media uses "temperatures" instead ...

[GMantis]

A relatively close race so far, according to the "temperature" reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Apparently, now it's getting warmer around the BSP headquarters (31.7), while around the GERB headquarters it's getting cooler and cloudier (28.6)...
In other news, a mobile listening station has been spotted with equal frequency near Bankya and Buzludzha at 30.4%. 11% claim to have seen the station near the Saray, while 6% have seen it at protests in front of Sofia's mosque. 3% report seeing it in front of SKAT TV and it has been seen with lesser frequency at other places.

Bulgaria has an exit-poll ban until the vote is over, but the news media uses "temperatures" instead ...

Book rankings are also popular on election day. For example, a newspaper is rating comics popularity among their staff.

[Tender Branson]

Did you vote and if yes, for which party ?

Also: Any government site/news site with good charts/maps of the results ?

[Famous Mortimer]

A relatively close race so far, according to the "temperature" reports:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Apparently, now it's getting warmer around the BSP headquarters (31.7), while around the GERB headquarters it's getting cooler and cloudier (28.6)...
In other news, a mobile listening station has been spotted with equal frequency near Bankya and Buzludzha at 30.4%. 11% claim to have seen the station near the Saray, while 6% have seen it at protests in front of Sofia's mosque. 3% report seeing it in front of SKAT TV and it has been seen with lesser frequency at other places.

Bulgaria has an exit-poll ban until the vote is over, but the news media uses "temperatures" instead ...

Book rankings are also popular on election day. For example, a newspaper is rating comics popularity among their staff.

Care to explain the joke behind that article for those of us who don't speak Bulgarian?

[GMantis]

Did you vote and if yes, for which party ?

Yes, for the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is of course the official site of the Central Electoral commission, though it's only in Bulgarian. Electoral geography has pretty detailed results, usually with maps, though of course with some delay. The problem with the official results is that besides the national level results, only the electoral district and individual precinct results are reported. From the precinct data more detailed maps can be made, though it's a laborious process.

[GMantis]

Care to explain the joke behind that article for those of us who don't speak Bulgarian?

I presume you're asking about the comics? Most of them have the party colors and the silhouettes of their leaders, but the comic "titles" are also hints:
The first one is "We can return.." which references BSP motto "Let's return Bulgaria to people".
The second one is titled "We build and we go", referencing GERB's claim to have build more than any other government since 1989.
The third is "The tower is speaking, answer Falcon", alluding to Dogan, the former MRF's leader, who's name means falcon in Turkish.
Fourth is "I have a plan" referencing Ataka's controversial economic program.
The fifth is "Television games", referencing the National Movement for the Salvation of Bulgaria, which was formed around SKAT television.
Sixth is "Isn't it normal to be me", which parodies the opening lines of a frequently aired radio ad by Miglena Kuneva, leader of DBG.
Seventh is "The violets are not speaking to me any more" and is a joke about how the DSB leader Ivan Kostov once said that he talked to his violets.
Eight is "We bring signals. Of all kinds" referencing how the leader of RZS Yane Yanev became famous by reporting alleged cases of corruption and abuse of power.
Ninth is "Do you remember madam", which is the name of an old song. This is presumably about the UDF, who has only memories to give them comfort. The lion silhouette is also a reminder of their old symbol.
The last one is "And some ride a bicycle", which is about the Greens

[Famous Mortimer]

Thanks.

So the Movement for Stability and Progress isn't even worth mocking? They did run the country more recently than the UDF.

[GMantis]

Thanks.

So the Movement for Stability and Progress isn't even worth mocking? They did run the country more recently than the UDF.

Probably they're not getting enough votes in the exit polls to reach 1 percent. After all, who is going to vote for the King's party if the King has left it. But it's possible that they're under-polled, as they're allied with a breakaway faction which is likely to be under-sampled and/or get most of their votes from abroad. So it's not entirely impossible for the NMSS to enter parliament or come close, but it won't be due their efforts.

[Hash]

All the parties are horrible, but it would be cool if BSP won and the pattern of governing parties never winning re-election held up.

[Hifly]

The Bulgarian Embassy in London is right next to my house and at the moment there's a massive queue outside, but it's moving so slowly it looks as if no-one is even entering the building. Perhaps the fact that people are lining up from 2 completely different positions on each side of the building doesn't help.

[GMantis]

All the parties are horrible, but it would be cool if BSP won and the pattern of governing parties never winning re-election held up.

Even if BSP lost, it seems unlikely that GERB would be able to form a government. Of course, MRF have been capable of even more dramatic reversals.

The Bulgarian Embassy in London is right next to my house and at the moment there's a massive queue outside, but it's moving so slowly it looks as if no-one is even entering the building. Perhaps the fact that people are lining up from 2 completely different positions on each side of the building doesn't help.

Interesting, in Bulgaria turnout is slightly lower than last time. I wonder if these are people enraged by Borisov's attempt to steal the election or people afraid of the "communists" winning.

[Leftbehind]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

[GMantis]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

Lider, the personal party of Hristo Kovachki, owner of various energy-related businesses. The core voters of his party were the workers in his plants or mines, by all accounts under threats. He won a municipality, where he controlled a large coal mine, the main employer there.