What will be the closest state this year, part II

[J. J.]

I'm going to be a contrarian and say MI.

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

I mean, I could see it too...(McCain falling big in the West, Virginia...etc)...but my question is...how often does a candidate win a state that the predecessor from his party failed to win in a closer election?

I could see several realistic possibilities:

Obama takes NH and CO

Obama takes VA

This is not a McCain sweep situation.

Obama/Bayh takes IN.

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

you picked Michigan, not Ohio.  If Michigan is the closest state, McCain will win the election.  I am not suggesting that is YOUR opinion.  I'm stating MY opinion.  You could disagree but I doubt if you are picking Michigan to be the closest state that you think say, North Carolina will be a nailbiter, or even Virginia.

EDIT:  I guess I just personally doubt mccain can compete in MI and NOT carry CO, VA, OH, etc.

I think OH is a bit more solid for McCain than everybody thinks, but I can very easily see him winning MI while losing VA and CO.