Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.
You'd have to be awfully pessimistic to say MO will be the closest state. What makes you think that Obama can make up for the massacres in rural MO? Slightly higher black turnout rates in St. Louis and Kansas City won't cut it.
Ever since we were massacred in 2006, I've tried being unrealistically pessimistic. That way, I'll be pleased by any outcome.
To answer your question though, I'm not sure he'll be massacred that badly. Reagan was struggling in the polls through most of 1980 because he was viewed as a far-right ideologue. He only opened up a huge lead towards the end after he smoked Carter in the debate. Obama's not that good of a debater, but he's very charismatic. I strongly fear something similar will happen with him.
Poll
