Manafort claims Trump's deficits with Hispanics and Women are "distorted"

[Angrie]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-paul-manafort-general-election_us_574619eee4b0dacf7ad3e201?vqp8pvi

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“To get a national sample they rely too much on Hispanics from New York and California, which is where large populations are, but also where most of the radical Hispanics are.”

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“The message is going to be jobs, national security, terrorism, family values and education,” he said. “In that order.”

“Their concerns are the same as the white working families.”

So his candidate doesn’t need 40 percent of Latino voters nationwide. “If we get into the high 20s in those states with Hispanics, we will win them, and in Florida we can do even better if we do what we need to do in the Cuban community.”[/quote]

So he thinks that the national polls are "distorted" and Trump can do well with Hispanics in the midwest and Florida? I guess the "unskewed" polls of this year are going to be "undistorted" polls. And this time it is coming directly from the top of the GOP campaign, not from internet posters like Dean Chambers or Statespolls.

Manafort seems not to realize that Hispanics in Ohio and Pennsylvania are very urban, and are maybe even more Democratic than Hispanics nationwide. They are not like rural Hispanics in Texas or New Mexico with whom Republicans (at least non-Trump Republicans) might have a chance.

There are barely any Hispanics in Ohio, and the few there are live in urban central Cleveland and Lorain. They are heavily Democratic. In Pennsylvania, Hispanics mostly live in central urban parts of Philadelphia, Reading, Allentown, and Lancaster. They were 80-90% Democratic already, Trump is not going to be remotely competitive with them. A lot of them are Puerto Rican. So any Republican will do terribly with them. Trump will do even worse. Hispanics in Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote for Hillary with percentages about as high as blacks.

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Hillary's the one who's got a gender gap? I don't think so. Even while Hillary is an admittedly terrible candidate, she is polling much better with women, and white women, than Obama did, and Trump is polling much worse. When the alternative is Trump, women will flock to Hillary.

Trump's crude language has flowed over into the media to the extent that now even reporters are saying "the women"? Next thing we know reporters will be saying that Trump has a great relationship with "the women" just like his great relationship with "the blacks" and with "the hispanics."

[Virginiá]

There are barely any Hispanics in Ohio, and the few there are live in urban central Cleveland and Lorain. They are heavily Democratic. In Pennsylvania, Hispanics mostly live in central urban parts of Philadelphia, Reading, Allentown, and Lancaster. They were 80-90% Democratic already, Trump is not going to be remotely competitive with them. A lot of them are Puerto Rican. So any Republican will do terribly with them. Trump will do even worse. Hispanics in Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote for Hillary with percentages about as high as blacks.

Obama's share of the Ohio Hispanic vote was 65% and 54% in 2008 and 2012, respectively (source: exit polls from NYT). However, like you were saying, there aren't a whole lot of them in Ohio. In 2008 / 2012, they only made up roughly 3%~ of the electorate. Pennsylvania Hispanics went 80% for Obama in 2012 and their share of the PA electorate has been growing relatively steadily.

Given Trump's rhetoric and plans, I seriously doubt he'll do as well as Romney did in Ohio with Hispanics. Any suggestion by the Trump campaign that he will rack up a big victory among FL Hispanics has to be a joke.

[Wisconsin+17]

I have Florida locked down because of it and Arizona likely Democrat. I can see why the media wants to foster the impression that 'it's a race', because the alternative is boring.