Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

What happened?!

Why did all opinion polls and predictions overestimate the support off FPÖ?!

Was it the anti-FPÖ campaign by the SPÖ in the final days?!

Definitely looks like it. The SPÖ received some loan-votes from the Greens, who wanted to prevent a FPÖ-victory. Also, it seems many SPÖ-voters remained loyal with their party after flirting with voting FPÖ before and telling pollsters so.

[Zanas]

Final results of the Vienna state election (with all postal ballots counted):



39.59% SPÖ (-4.75%) - 44 seats
30.79% FPÖ (+5.02%) - 34 seats
11.84% Greens (-0.80%) - 10 seats
  9.24% ÖVP (-4.75%) - 7 seats
  6.16% NEOS (+6.16%) -  5 seats
  1.07% ANDAS (+1.07%)
  0.91% GFW (+0.91%)
  0.21% WWW (+0.21%)
  0.16% WIFF (+0.16%)
  0.04% Others

1.143.076 - eligible voters
   854.406 - total votes cast
     21.425 - invalid votes cast
   832.981 - valid votes cast

Turnout: 74.75% (+7.12%)

https://www.wien.gv.at/english/NET-EN/GR151/GR151-109.htm

...

Clickable maps with party strength by district and turnout data (on the left the maps are for the state election, on the right the maps are for the district/"municipal" elections):

http://orf.at/wahl/wien15/#analysis

Fun to see both federal governing parties lose the exact same percentage point share in this election. I guess government fatigue is a thing...

[Tender Branson]

Finance Minister Hans-Jörg Schelling (ÖVP) is holding the 2016 budget speech in parliament right now, saying that the tax cuts worth 6 billion € will start as planned on Jan. 1, 2016 while investing more in education and broadband internet.



The deficit is planned to decrease from 1.9% of GDP this year to 1.4% next year and debt will go down from a HYPO-high of 87% of GDP to 85% next year (and then gradually lower to below 80% by 2019).

Btw: costs for asylum will rise by a billion € next year to a total of 1.5 billion €.

http://derstandard.at/2000023806631/Schelling-wischt-Zweifel-an-Nulldefizit-vom-Tisch

...

Ahead of the parliamentary session, NEOS got a new MP:

Claudia Gamon (26) was sworn in to replace Beate Meinl-Reisinger, who will lead the future NEOS-delegation in the Vienna state parliament, after winning 6% in the state election there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Boston Bread]

I noticed there was higher turnout and a phenomenon of youth being less than FPO friendly than expected. It leads me to guess that Austrian youth who usually don't turn out are generally more anti-FPO and that it was their turnout that gave the SPO a bump.

Finally some good news for the SPO

[Tender Branson]

Here's an Excel comparison of the 2015 state elections with the previous round in 2009/10, which I made:



Overall, turnout increased from 72.9% to 75.1% in the 2015 round.

The SPÖ won the 2015 round with 30%, followed by the FPÖ with 29% and the ÖVP with 25%.

But the ÖVP lost most (minus 8% compared with the 2009/10 round), the SPÖ lost 6% and the FPÖ gained 12% overall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And also for the Borough Councils:

[Tender Branson]

Vienna 2015 by precinct:



Vienna 2010 by precinct:

[Tender Branson]

Precinct results and maps should be taken with a ton of salt though, for 2 reasons:

* Precinct results are without postal votes (which are 25% of the total vote Vienna-wide and certainly up to 40% in some precincts. Postal ballots are extremely Green and ÖVP - while the FPÖ significantly underperforms with postal votes, which means the map would be less FPÖ with postals included. But they are only counted on the district level and not precinct level.)

* Borders of precincts are changing between elections, which makes comparisons even harder.

[Tender Branson]

Peter McDonald will become the new ÖVP General Secretary, after Gernot Blümel took over as the new Vienna ÖVP-leader:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4844653/McDonald-schliesst-Koalition-mit-FPO-nicht-aus

McDonald is from Upper Austria (with Irish roots) and was heading the Austrian Social Security System so far. In a first interview, he said "he's open to a coalition with the FPÖ on the federal level".

[Tender Branson]

The talk about the Presidential Election (spring 2016) is getting into higher gear:

* Erwin Pröll, the Lower Austria ÖVP governor, said "he wants the ÖVP to put up a candidate on their own" - instead of a joint one with the SPÖ. This could be seen as a veiled signal that Pröll actually means ... himself.

* On the SPÖ-side, Rudolf "Dracula/everything's OK in the job market despite 150.000 more unemployed" Hundstorfer looks like 99% in.

* For the Greens, Alexander Van der Bellen is like 99% in.

* And Irmgard Griss looks likely to run as an Indy now, which would hurt Pröll most. FPÖ and NEOS are thinking about backing her run and not running their own candidates. Recently, Josef Moser was mentioned as an FPÖ-candidate.

http://derstandard.at/2000023932002/Zwischen-Machtkaempfen-und-eindringlichen-Bitten

Btw: If Pröll runs for President, Lower Austria needs a new Governor. Most likely candidates: worn-out Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner or Stephan Pernkopf. If ML indeed becomes Governor, either Pernkopf or Wolfgang Sobotka could become the new Austrian Interior Minister - a job nobody really wants right now (=> asylum crisis).

[Tender Branson]

In Upper Austria meanwhile all signs are pointing towards a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, as Gov. Pühringer said today "talks with the FPÖ have a priority for him".

http://derstandard.at/2000023596810/Puehringer-fuehrt-Koalitionsgespraeche-mit-Prioritaet-zur-FPOe

Of course, Upper Austria has Proporz, which means every party above 10% is automatically in the state government. The ÖVP will likely have 4 government posts (incl. that of the Governor), the FPÖ 3 and SPÖ and Greens 1 each.

The new government should be ready by Oct. 23, when the new state parliament convenes.

The government talks in Upper Austria are going to be tough between ÖVP and FPÖ, because the ÖVP lost so much and the FPÖ gained that much.

And because Upper Austria has 9 state cabinet posts under Proporz, it's still not known if the ÖVP will get 3 or 4 cabinet posts (currently, they have 5).

The ÖVP demands that they are getting 4, while the election results would yield them only 3.

The SPÖ demands 2, but the ÖVP would give them only 1.

The FPÖ is solidaric with the SPÖ and also wants the ÖVP to cede them one of their own.

Also, the FPÖ demands a strong FPÖ-handwriting in a possible ÖVP-FPÖ coalition contract, such as more money and investments into local infrastructure, police and firebrigades and that their cabinet posts also "wield some power", which means that they are not getting sidelined by the ÖVP with being responsible for non-important policy areas ...

The FPÖ actually has good cards against the ÖVP, because they can always threaten to leave the talks and enter a coalition with the SPÖ ... (FPÖ-SPÖ would have a majority of seats in Upper Austria) and sideline the ÖVP ...

The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks are shifting into high gear right now, with a good deal of chapters already agreed on and some which still need a good deal of negotiating.

Unfinished "hot-button topics"

Immigration/asylum/foreigner integration (pretty obvious with the FPÖ's hardline stance)
Infrastructure, apartment construction & housing aid (FPÖ wants more power and money for it)
Culture
Public Administration

Topics already agreed on:

Agriculture
Health
Education
Family
Economy & Labour
Land use regulation
Sport
Energy

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2737279

[Tender Branson]

In Vienna, 3 coalitions are likely after the election:

* a renewed SPÖ-Green coalition
* SPÖ-ÖVP
* SPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS

Coalition talks will start on Tuesday.

http://derstandard.at/2000023991465/Wiener-SPOe-schmiedet-Verhandlungsplaene

[Tender Branson]

The first poll after the Upper Austria and Vienna elections shows the FPÖ remains 10% ahead:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-ist-nicht-zu-stoppen/208393113

Also, the fact that the FPÖ won big in the 4 state elections this year means that they will receive about 50 Mio. € more in public party financing in these states over the next 5 years.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Siege-bringen-FPOe-48-Millionen/208426813

[Tender Branson]

The Green Party has axed their independent/critical-minded Bundesrat MP Efgani Dönmez today, by installing a more politically-correct MP, true to their party line ...

On Dönmez, a guy with a spine in a party that is becoming more and more spineless and autocratic by axing anyone who's not in line with their left-leftist thinking anymore:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165607.msg3764808#msg3764808

It's a shame.

[Flocke]

true to their party line ...

That's what people voted for, if he wants to go against the party line and appear at FPÖ events to discuss about "privileged homosexuals, women and migrants" he should at least stand in an election.

[Cranberry]

true to their party line ...

That's what people voted for, if he wants to go against the party line and appear at FPÖ events to discuss about "privileged homosexuals, women and migrants" he should at least stand in an election.

Exactly. The Greens are a party of "left-leftist" thinking, Tender, and no whining will ever change that. If it had been the other way round - he being an FPÖ-politician but sympathising with the Greens - he would have been "axed" long ago, so why should the Greens continue to support him?

Great to see a new Austrian, by the way, Flocke, especially one with a Socialist avatar

[Tender Branson]

true to their party line ...

That's what people voted for, if he wants to go against the party line and appear at FPÖ events to discuss about "privileged homosexuals, women and migrants" he should at least stand in an election.

Exactly. The Greens are a party of "left-leftist" thinking, Tender, and no whining will ever change that. If it had been the other way round - he being an FPÖ-politician but sympathising with the Greens - he would have been "axed" long ago, so why should the Greens continue to support him?

Great to see a new Austrian, by the way, Flocke, especially one with a Socialist avatar

Bullsh*t.

Apparently "left-leftist" thinking now means having no brain or no common sense anymore. Thinking that pro-Erdogan supporters who want to create a parallel-AKP in Austria are "normal" and that Burka-wearing women and foreigners abusing/taking advantage of the welfare system etc. are tolerable things ...

A party like the Greens need critical people like Dönmez who can speak up against the party line, to "wake up" the increasingly moral-apostolic party leadership. Yesterday they just behaved like plain fascists or the Nazis in the "Night of the Long Knives" ... just eradicating anyone who tries to speak up.

If a party like the Greens - who are preaching of tolerance and critical-thinking the whole time and expecting the whole world to do it, cannot handle a few independent-minded people with a spine and a different opinion, they are only to pity. Nothing more.

[politicus]

true to their party line ...

That's what people voted for, if he wants to go against the party line and appear at FPÖ events to discuss about "privileged homosexuals, women and migrants" he should at least stand in an election.

Exactly. The Greens are a party of "left-leftist" thinking, Tender, and no whining will ever change that. If it had been the other way round - he being an FPÖ-politician but sympathising with the Greens - he would have been "axed" long ago, so why should the Greens continue to support him?

Great to see a new Austrian, by the way, Flocke, especially one with a Socialist avatar

Bullsh*t.

Apparently "left-leftist" thinking now means having no brain or no common sense anymore. Thinking that pro-Erdogan supporters who want to create a parallel-AKP in Austria are "normal" and that Burka-wearing women and foreigners abusing/taking advantage of the welfare system etc. are tolerable things ...

A party like the Greens need critical people like Dönmez who can speak up against the party line, to "wake up" the increasingly moral-apostolic party leadership. Yesterday they just behaved like plain fascists or the Nazis in the "Night of the Long Knives" ... just eradicating anyone who tries to speak up.

If a party like the Greens - who are preaching of tolerance and critical-thinking the whole time and expecting the whole world to do it, cannot handle a few independent-minded people with a spine and a different opinion, they are only to pity. Nothing more.

If you are sufficiently at odds with your party you should form a new one (despite the difficulties). There is a limit to how broad-tent a party can be.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, I remember the Night of the Long Knives, when the Nazi party infamously dropped Gregor Strasser off their parliamentary list and kindly informed Ernst Rohm that his faction was was no longer welcome in policy meetings. Great comparison Tender.

[DavidB.]

Still, it is very telling that Western European Social Democrats and Greens have a tendency to talk a lot about tolerance and openness, but cannot stand party members with a migrant background being open about the problems in their communities - for ideological reasons ("don't break my happy multicultural bubble", which often applies to Greens) or for electoral reasons (being too honest = scaring away constituencies that vote heavily for this party - this often applies to Social Democrats). Ayaan Hirsi Ali switching from PvdA to VVD in the Netherlands is also an excellent example for this.

[politicus]

Still, it is very telling that Western European Social Democrats and Greens have a tendency to talk a lot about tolerance and openness, but cannot stand party members with a migrant background being open about the problems in their communities - for ideological reasons ("don't break my happy multicultural bubble", which often applies to Greens) or for electoral reasons (being too honest = scaring away constituencies that vote heavily for this party - this often applies to Social Democrats). Ayaan Hirsi Ali switching from PvdA to VVD in the Netherlands is also an excellent example for this.

We had an interesting case were the Alternative first silenced and then expelled their Integration Spokesperson Uzma Ahmed Andresen (an ethnically Pakistani feminist academic, who is married to a Dane, but a practicing Muslim) for advocating that immigrants who do not accept gender equality and other Western core values should be repatriated. Logical from a feminist POV, but unacceptable to their voter segment.

But still, the logical thing is to form separate parties based on this cleavage, its too important to handle within the traditional parties.

[Zanas]

I had un-ignored Tender to follow the Vienna election ; I will now merrily re-ignore him.

[Cranberry]

Just some more info here:

Efgani Dönmez was not "axed", he was merely not reelected by the Upper Austrian Greens leadership. Seats in the Bundesrat are proportioned by state, and within the state, according to a party's result in the last state election. State party leadership thus elects the number of Bundesrat MPs allotted to the party after each election - and they chose another, younger guy over Dönmez this time, unsurprisingly given some of his remarks which were quite out of party line, and at times blatantly homophobic.

He was not "axed" or expelled from the party or whatever, it was a plain, normal party vote.

By the way, no one in Austria but Tender seems to care about this, I had to search directly for it to even hear about it.