Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« on: October 08, 2007, 05:19:06 PM » |
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If the environment returns to a neutral (50-50) environment, the number is probably centered around Dem +2-3, though +1 or +4 or maybe even +5 is not out of the realm of possibilities. (key seats being NH, MN, CO, VA, NM and LA).
If the environment is a slight Dem-leaning environment (+4 or +5 generically), the number is probably Dem +4-6. (add OR, ME and maybe NE or AL to the list)
If the environment turns into the so-called double wave environment, +7 or more is possible, 60 is possible.
These numbers connect in some ways to the Presidential environment, but in other ways they don't. It's very hard at this point to say exactly how the up-ballot environment reacts to the down-ballot environment.
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