How many seats...

[Padfoot]

Here's how I'd rate the races if the election was today:

Dem favored: New Hampshire, Virginia
Lean Dem: Louisiana
Tossup: Maine, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Minnesota
Lean Republican: Oregon, Alaska
(All others are safe incumbent party.)

As of today NH and VA are the Democrats' to lose.  I put NM, NE, and MN in the tossup mostly because of candidate uncertainty.  Colorado will be strongly affected by the presidential race IMO so it is really hard to judge until we know who the presidential candidates are for certain.  I think Maine is going to be the most interesting Senate race of 2008.  Both candidates are well known and popular statewide.  I think Maine will set the mood for the Democrats on election night 2008.  Oregon is hard to judge given the strong independent possibility as well as poor Democratic candidate recruitment.  It should be a top Democratic target but they're having too many issues right now to surmount an incumbent toppling challenge.  Alaska is the most volatile at this point.  If Stevens is cleared then it goes back to safe Republican.  If he resigns its another open seat and another big target for Democrats but it would probably favor the Republicans still.  If it looks like he will be charged with something AND he doesn't resign it would move to the tossup category or perhaps even lean Democrat depending on the challenger.