How many seats... (user search)
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  How many seats... (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will the Democrats gain in the 2008 elections
#1
0
 
#2
1-3
 
#3
4-6
 
#4
7-9
 
#5
10+
 
#6
They will lose seats
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 41

Author Topic: How many seats...  (Read 2393 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« on: October 08, 2007, 04:04:58 PM »

I assume you're talking Senate?  If that's the case, I'm guessing it's D+3.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2007, 04:45:17 PM »

I like how "ten plus" is an option here.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2007, 08:45:14 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2007, 08:57:19 PM by Mr. Moderate »

Because I know you're all so eager to know, here are my odds of where I think the Senate races are going (and the odds of the opposite party candidate winning each).  Pickups are in colored boldface, open seats in italics, and the chances for retirements are currently factored in.

REPUBLICAN HELD (22)
Virginia 66.7%
New Hampshire 60%
Colorado 57.5%
New Mexico 49.9%
Minnesota 49.9%
Oregon 45%
Maine 35%
Nebraska 25%
Alaska 20%
Kentucky 17.5%
North Carolina 15%
Texas 10%
Idaho 10%
Rest: Less than 10%

DEMOCRAT HELD (12)
Louisiana 51%
South Dakota 25%
New Jersey 15%
Montana 15%
Iowa 10%
Arkansas 10%
Rest: Less than 10%

I think it to be all but impossible for Democrats to win more than seven, even in the most friendly of environments.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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Posts: 13,431
United States


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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2007, 08:55:21 PM »

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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Posts: 13,431
United States


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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2007, 04:45:56 PM »

I do think another seat will develop for Republicans as something (at least remotely) "competitive" by Election Day.  Personally, I think it'll be New Jersey, though I doubt the GOP will actually wind up winning it.

Republicans can't afford to play 100% defense when they're facing some sure losses.
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