Canadian federal election - 2015

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Obviously predictions can't be very accurate at this point, but we can make some educated guesses.

If I have to make a guess, I would say a conservative minority. Despite the fact that Trudeau will likely bring up his party's votes considerably, the conservatives have several advantages, namely:

Cash: The conservatives tend to raise more funds than any other party, as far as I have heard
Incumbency: Incumbency advantage, always a factor, if a small one
Right wing advantage: Regardless of any evidence to the contrary, people seem to like voting for which ever party says "economy" the most in their campaign.
Riding redistribution: The new distribution of riding favours the conservatives considerably
Vote concentration: The conservatives have a stronger riding base than either of the two other main parties, Alberta is so right wing that the other two parties barely have a chance of winning any more than one riding, Interior BC and rural Vancouver are consistently Conservative, most of Saskatchewan, rural Manitoba, and rural Ontario are the same story. NDP and Liberal ridings are more prone to switching, as is exemplified by last election's "orange crush". For the liberals to win, the would have to nearly sweep Quebec, (a tall order, because of the Bloc, NDP incumbency, and a slightly damaged "Trudeau" name brand), and they would have to win practically all of the Toronto suburbs, the Marintines, and a handful of western canada ridings. I expect Harper will use his considerable funding to swamp Toronto with attack ads, thereby greatly reducing the liberal's chance of winning. I hate saying this, but the NDP are the long shot in this election, even if they ran an excellent campaign, they would probably just split the vote with the liberals, and NDP support seems to struggle in the Toronto suburbs.

All the same, anything could happen.

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I find it interesting that the Bloc isn't rising at all, if anything, it's subsiding.

This is strange because before the 2011 election, from the start of 2009, the Bloc remained remarkably steady at about 40% in Quebec, regardless of how much the Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives fluctuated beneath them. That is, until just before the election, when they were crushed by the orange wave.

Common sense would dictate that all the Bloc voters switched to the NDP.

But now that the orange wave has subsided a bit it looks like the Bloc isn't recovering at all.

Before the election, Liberal strength or weakness didn't seem to have much effect on the Bloc voters, but now, it seems all those Bloc voters have given up on the Bloc and the NDP, and are now going Liberal.

Those Quebec votes are an absolute necessity if either Mulcair or Trudeau want to have a shot at winning 2015.

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Bloc has been crushed too much to come back. They only have 5 MPs, their leader is outside of the Commons, they totally fell off the radar.

Hopefully you're right.

It would be bad news for the Conservatives.

Good news for the opposition.

However, I don't think support for sovereignty in Quebec is completely dead yet, the Bloc voters might be just hiding behind the Liberals and the NDP in the opinion polls hoping for the Bloc to gain momentum so they can switch back. Hopefully they don't resurface, that would be very, very bad news for the center-left.

I'd imagine this is why Trudeau is throwing his support behind Quebec right now, if the news is any indication. He doesn't want the Bloc to rise up again, and so he's trying to present the Liberals as a viable alternative.

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The next election looks like it will be mostly decided by the ABCers (Anything But Conservative).

Will they rally behind the NDP or the Liberals? (NDP or Liberal minority)
Will they be divided, and split the vote? (Conservative minority or majority)

Oh, also, there's a way to divide Canada up.

Eastern Canada = Slightly less than a third.
Ontario = Slightly more than a third.
Western Canada = Slightly less than a third.

We can expect the Marintines to go mostly Liberal unless Trudeau really, really messes up. (They're polling above 50% right now) Marintines is a little less than 1/3 of Eastern Canada.

Quebec could go any which way, except Conservative. (over 2/3 of Eastern Canada)

Toronto and the 905 are another area where it could swing. (slightly less than 1/2 of Ontario)

The rest of Ontario is almost entirely Conservative, except for a couple cities and the North. (slightly more than 1/2 of Ontario)

Manitoba and Saskatchewan make up about a quarter of Western Canada. We can expect a ton of Conservative support except for Winnipeg (and now maybe Regina and Saskatoon). Those cities make up about a third of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Alberta will have more ridings next election, practically all will go Conservative (Alberta makes up about a third of Western Canada)

BC is mostly packed into Greater Vancouver, but Vancouver has quite a bit of rural and/or wealthy land, and so is more right wing than most Canadian cities, still, Vancouver has many important swing ridings. Interior BC is somewhat strong Conservative territory (That is, unless Enbridge is pushed through). Vancouver Island is NDP-favourable, but new riding distribution may allow the Conservatives to keep support here. BC makes up more than 1/3 of Western Canada.

The Territories only make up a tiny amount of Canada's ridings (obviously), but they look like they could be swing ridings.

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I think that if we're dealing with a Conservative party dancing around 30% or even below, there'll be more seats at play in, say, non-GTA Ontario or urban Alberta than you're counting on...

I'm not counting on it! It's very, very preliminary, but you're right, the Conservative areas would start breaking down very quickly below 30%.

I just sorta doubt they'll end up that way. The scandals that have happened as of late will be almost irrelevant 2 years from now, they have the advantage of incumbency. They would need a semi-large handful of scandals and a fairly large drop in the economy to be pushed beneath 30 percent I think... not impossible, a lot can happen in two years, but unlikely IMHO.

Edit: Oh, and the Conservatives are below 30% right now (28%), but I would expect that's because of a combination of Trudeau's temporary boost and the very recent scandals.

Maybe I'm paranoid because of the recent upset in the BC election

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I wonder if the Conservatives will end up pushing through Enbridge. Even though Enbridge has been bombarding BC with advertisements for ages now, assuring "State of the art" oil spill management and that safety is their top priority, I don't think British Columbians are buying it, most have by now heard about Enbridge promising this stuff before in other places, and the states later ending up with numerous oil spills.

I'm not sure if the CPC recognizes that giving it the stamp of approval will result in a massive drop in support in BC. I'm pretty sure the BC Liberals have noticed this, they are roughly parallel to the federal Conservatives in terms of ideology, but they seem slightly wary of giving Enbridge free pass in BC, I think they recognize that their voters would not be pleased if BC suddenly ends up with an out-of-control oil spill.

Ultimately, the Federal government and not the provincial one makes the final decision, but I hope they realize they might have to be prepared to lose 15 or so ridings.

And if they do decide to sell BC's coast to China I hope BCers will stand up against it, or at least change all the blue ridings orange next election.

It would be nice to see the CPC lose one of their stronger provinces.

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The Liberals are swinging so far to the right under Justin Trudeau that the Liberals are now like a second conservative party threatening to split the rightwing vote.

Right now, (as is exemplified by the polls) the public perception is that Trudeau is one of the center/left guys, and the ABC voters like him. How long it will take until the fact that he definitely leans right is noticed by the public is anyone's guess. It could be months, it could be years.

We can hope he splits the right, but the CPCs don't view him favourably, and I can't foresee too many of them switching, unless it becomes quite public that Trudeau is right wing, and Harper messes up somehow.

I'm not banking my hopes on the CPCs losing, But I do think there's a fairly good chance he will lose his majority position. Short term, Trudeau will probably just split the vote, but in the long run, I hope, Trudeau's right wing policies will eventually put many of the Liberals off, and it will benefit the NDP.

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On what issue is Trudeau "swinging so far to the right?" If energy, he opposes Northern Gateway, lukewarm on Kinder Morgan, but pushing hard for Keystone and pro-sands generally.

I might be going a little far saying he's "right wing", he's not as right wing as Harper, but his platform should raise some eyebrows for the more more leftish Liberals.

-Supports Keystone XL
-Supports Oil Sands
-Supports Foreign ownership of Canadian resources
-Does not support Senate reform, said it was "a terrible idea" (yes, Harper said he would reform the Senate, but all I've seen is him filling it up with Conservatives, so I consider Senate reform a left wing policy)

The rest of the platform is either vague or not finished yet, so we don't really know what it will look like come election day, but if these policies are any indication, they could be rightish.

I prefer him over Harper, a few of his policies seem okay, but he's no left-center.

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By very definition, I'd say reforming or abolishing the senate would be considered "left wing"

Left wing
Noun
Members of a radical or liberal political party, or those favoring extensive political reform.

From dictionary.com

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Left wing
Noun
Members of a radical or liberal political party, or those favoring extensive political reform.

From dictionary.com

Damn, that's an unbelievably terrible definition. No wonder half of North Americans have no clue what left-wing actually means when dictionaries provide us with such bullsh**t.

Keep in mind that there are a couple ors in there.

Members of a radical or liberal political party, or those favoring extensive political reform.

If you take it to mean the "liberal" definition, "liberal" means...

Liberal
Adjective
Pertaining or noting to a political party advocating measures of progressive political reform.

or...

Favoring proposals for reform, open to new ideas for progress, and tolerant of the behavior and ideas of others; broad-minded.

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Are you guys discussing an Australian Senate in the Canadian federal election forum?

Clearly I really veered this forum way off topic by mentioning my view on the Senate.

New discussion material needed then! -random topic generator-

How about some minor party stuff:

What seats do you think the Bloc will win, if any? Will they hold onto their 4? Lose some? Gain some?

Will are the chances the Greens will gain another seat? What seats have the best odds for them?

Edit: Fixed spelling mistakes

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Well obviously the Greens will want to at least attempt to expand their frontiers. They've been a bit more calculating as of late where they funnel their resources. I think their most viable options (Besides Saanich-Gulf Islands) are:

Yukon:
Last election they garnered 19% of the popular vote, the most in any riding besides Saanich-Gulf Islands. The candidate was John Streicker, a former president of the Green Party.
Maybe if they campaigned heavily in Whitehorse...

Vancouver Center:
Last time they got 15% of the vote here, the third most for them in any riding. The only reason this riding might be viable is because the other 3 parties were split almost evenly (The Liberals, NDP, and CPC at 31, 26, and 26 again respectively). The candidate was Adriane Carr, former leader of the BC Green Party. (Imagine downtown Vancouver coloured Green on a results map!)

Victoria:
Here, the Greens got *only* 9%, but if I remember correctly, it'll be a little more feasible next election because the redistribution cuts off a big chunk of Green support from Saanich-Gulf Islands and attaches it to Victoria. Also, last time the NDP got over 50% in this riding, and presumably if the Greens were to win a riding most of their new votes would come from the NDP. Their candidate last time was the relatively obscure Jared Giesbrecht, but if they were to run one of their star candidates, and add some more funding, maybe...

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With that said, how do the other provinces gaining seats look?

I know Alberta is the Conservative fortress, but can the opposition make some gains? Edmonton-Strathcona seems to have been fairly solidified in the NDP camp. What would come next for them now? What about the Liberals? And can any other party potentially break into Calgary?

My other question is how thew new proposed maps ultimately deal with the balance of power. How do the proposed lines in each of Ontario, Quebec, and BC favour the parties?

There will be 15 new ridings in Ontario, 6 in BC, 6 in Alberta, and 3 in Quebec.

The 15 Ontario ridings are mostly in the Greater Toronto Area, traditionally Liberal, but this whole area was won by the Conservatives last election, and so it is extremely important for any party that wants to win.

The 6 in BC are slated for Greater Vancouver (4), Inner Vancouver (1), and 1 on Vancouver Island. Greater Vancouver is traditionally Conservative, the new riding in Inner Vancouver is in a Conservative section of the city, and Vancouver Island tends to balance between the NDP and the Conservatives.

The 6 in Alberta will all go Conservative. It's true that it's possible that the NDP or the Liberals will win a few seats in Alberta, but there are easier seat pickups elsewhere, and I doubt they'll really try too hard in Alberta.

The 3 in Quebec will be on Montreal Island, it's anyone's guess who they will end up voting for.

New seats aside, the old seats will all be shuffled to make room for them, but besides in Saskatchewan, there doesn't seem to be too many extremely significant changes, or we won't be able to see the changes too clearly until the election starts to loom closer.

1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

What?

Also, you would think lumping a massive amount of rural land with each of the four quarters of two cities would be considered a Conservative gerrymander. Am I missing something?

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1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

What?

Also, you would think lumping a massive amount of rural land with each of the four quarters of two cities would be considered a Conservative gerrymander. Am I missing something?

The gerrymander was originally meant to favour the NDP. Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created, the NDP still had a prairie populist element. This made the cities safe NDP, and the rural areas only sort of conservative. By combining them together into rurban ridings, you got many marginal NDP seats. As time went on, the NDP lost the prairie populist part of their coalition and the rural areas became super conservative, which in turn flipped the gerrymander to favour the Tories.

I found the notional results for Sasketchewan. NDP pick up a seat each in Saskatoon and Regina. As expected, the rural areas are super safe Tory seats.

Ah, I see, that makes sense. The other Regina and Saskatoon city ridings will also probably be marginal seats, even if the Conservatives are slightly ahead.

Victoria:
Here, the Greens got *only* 9%, but if I remember correctly, it'll be a little more feasible next election because the redistribution cuts off a big chunk of Green support from Saanich-Gulf Islands and attaches it to Victoria. Also, last time the NDP got over 50% in this riding, and presumably if the Greens were to win a riding most of their new votes would come from the NDP. Their candidate last time was the relatively obscure Jared Giesbrecht, but if they were to run one of their star candidates, and add some more funding, maybe...

You seem to have forgotten the recent byelection where they nearly defeated the NDP.

Sorry about my lack of recent political knowledge. I only got interested in politics quite recently.

If that's the case, Victoria will definitely be a target for the Greens. Maybe the other two ridings as well if they think they have the resources.

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No way the Liberals only get 152 seats with those numbers...

2 more reasons:

1: ThreeHundredEight has given the NDP the advantage in rural Quebec. Liberal power is heavily concentrated in and around Montreal, this knocked off a very, very large amount of seats, in fact, the Liberals are over 10 points ahead of the NDP in Quebec, but his projection is giving the NDP more seats than the Liberals.

2:The CPC's vote share is extremely effective. Rural ridings virtually all have a "perfect" vote share, at the point where their vote isn't concentrated and therefore wasted, but is also powerful enough so that even if the Conservatives have low percentages, they have just enough support in these ridings to win.

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Might as well give a run down of what the graphs are showing.

BC: The three parties are almost tied now. Liberals are bound to hit the roof soon here, the Liberals have never done that well in BC.

Alberta:The CPC is at... 47%! Below 50! The Liberals are at 33. It'll never hold... The 7 seats that ThreeHundredEight is giving the Liberals in Alberta will be nonexistent come election day.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba: CPC at 38, Liberals at 33, NDP at 22. Nothing unusual here really, the CPC's small drop in support already seems to be leveling out.

Ontario: Liberals are skyrocketing and not yet slowing down, at the expense of all three of the other parties. They are almost 10 points ahead of the CPC at the moment.

Quebec:The Bloc is at a historic low of 17%. Interesting here though, the Liberals seem to already be hitting their ceiling at roughly 41%, and the NDP are already recovering, going from 26 to 28 percent in the last month.

Atlantic: At expected, The Liberals are rocketing upwards here. Doesn't look like they're about to stop yet. The CPC and NDP are tied here at 21%. The Liberals are at 53 and counting.