Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

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Once we hit the South we're gonna get some real meme county maps, they'll be good to see.

Also I really want to see Maryland (In addition to IL Obviously).  I think Montgomery, Prince Georges, Anne Arundel, Howard, and Baltimore Counties might go R or at least trend R.

[GlobeSoc]

Once we hit the South we're gonna get some real meme county maps, they'll be good to see.

Also I really want to see Maryland (In addition to IL Obviously).  I think Montgomery, Prince Georges, Anne Arundel, Howard, and Baltimore Counties might go R or at least trend R.

I'm going for:

v8: Montana, Both Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa(The reason I'm going to do so many states at once is that the vast majority of counties are high PPP ultra-white counties that I can just color safe R and call it a day. The only real challenge will probably be Montana)
v9: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
v10: Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania
v11: Delaware, New Jersey, New York
v12: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
v13: Florida, Maryland, Virginia, Missouri, Illinois
v14: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
v15: Kentucky, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama
v16: Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas
v17: Final revision(s)

[GlobeSoc]

v8:

[GlobeSoc]

How should I deal with the iron range and its neighboring counties in Wisconsin? Yes, those counties have a high PPP and are very white, but the whites there are open to voting dem, and have relatively strong unions, right? I'm inclined to color that area as lean d or lean r, but I want to hear arguments for what I should rate it.

[GlobeSoc]

v9:

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

v9:

Wow, when they say Iowa would be one of the most R states in the nation, they mean it. It's more Republican than Kansas!

Also, why did you color the Twin Cities and Madison as lean/likely R? I would think that there would be Democratic support in the city centers, which would have high minority populations. Do the suburbs that happen to be in these counties outvote the central cities?

[GlobeSoc]

v9:

Wow, when they say Iowa would be one of the most R states in the nation, they mean it. It's more Republican than Kansas!

Also, why did you color the Twin Cities and Madison as lean/likely R? I would think that there would be Democratic support in the city centers, which would have high minority populations. Do the suburbs that happen to be in these counties outvote the central cities?

I'll adjust them tomorrow when I add Indiana and a few other states.

On Iowa, I was not expecting a sweep like that, but then I realized that every county is thoroughly white, has high PPP, or both.

[ltomlinson31]

Lol, is there is a single county in Iowa that isn't Safe R? Even Wyoming has Teton as Lean/Likely R (can't tell which one).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Johnson County is R suddenly?

[PoliticalShelter]

Looks the theory that Iowa is the next West Virginia are true after all!

I'm interested as to how you are accounting for hownmuch internal migration the Hispanic population undertakes and how much the Hispanic will integrate by this time. I found a map that shows where the Hispanic population seems to be moving too:



It's interesting that the states predicted to get the most influx of Hispanics are coastal southern states like Alabama, Louisania and South Carolina.

Also Eastern Iowa seems to be a future destination for Hispanics so you might need to adjust for that, unless you believe that Hispanics will have integrated enough for there to be no effect.

[GlobeSoc]

Looks the theory that Iowa is the next West Virginia are true after all!

I'm interested as to how you are accounting for hownmuch internal migration the Hispanic population undertakes and how much the Hispanic will integrate by this time. I found a map that shows where the Hispanic population seems to be moving too:



It's interesting that the states predicted to get the most influx of Hispanics are coastal southern states like Alabama, Louisania and South Carolina.

Also Eastern Iowa seems to be a future destination for Hispanics so you might need to adjust for that, unless you believe that Hispanics will have integrated enough for there to be no effect.

In Iowa it will only shift a few counties to likely/lean R.

Thanks for the data, it will help in both revising and adding to my map

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd put Iowa as R+12. Utah as R+17 (Utah actually trends D). Minnesota as R+11 (would be more, but it'll take a bit to swing it). It will probably elect democrats to the senate long after it turns Red.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, these states are going to ticket split for a while, which is going to form the backbone of the Congressional Democratic Majorities during the Cordray Era. Well, Utah won't, and maybe Iowa won't either? But all the Obama 2012 states that went Republican in the 2030s are going to ticket split quite a bit.

[GlobeSoc]

I have a decently large release of New England, New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana ready. I will post it in this thread at 5 cdt.

[GlobeSoc]

Next is Illinois, and then we'll head into the meme zone the south

[Blackacre]

I do not know how to feel about Westchester being a Republican county.

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Wow PA must be like R+7 or something like that.  Also would CT and NH be R here?

[GlobeSoc]

Wow PA must be like R+7 or something like that.  Also would CT and NH be R here?

Yes, but they're much closer than they 'should' be.

[PoliticalShelter]

Wow, interesting that Western PA still seems republican in this alignment (save a couple of counties). I wonder what this means for West Virginia.

[GlobeSoc]

Wow, interesting that Western PA still seems republican in this alignment (save a couple of counties). I wonder what this means for West Virginia.

Pay more attention to eastern Ohio, in the ohio valley.

[The Govanah Jake]

I see there has been a rebound for democrats in the industrial areas from 2016 in the Midwest (Specifically Ohio and Pennsylvania). They also are doing much better in the rural areas here and in the Northeast post-trump. Again i could easily mistake this for say a 1968 Election map which goes to show how this is more or less a return of normalcy to the New Deal Coalition except with more minority's as a factor and a little more rural and industrial appeal for republicans.

Also is Maine a democratic PVI? there. I see the democrats regained the northern county's there and industrial timber areas there which seems odd due to the fact that republicans are still winning those same types of areas big in the midwest in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and too a lesser extend in Ohio and Michigan.

Also i see Manhattan and Queens borough are 40%> along with 50%> in Queens and the Bronx. Is that a mistake because the Five boroughs are so democratic and have been throughout history and with non Hispanic white populations still staying in a minority and probably growing more so combined with a the city still containing loads of poor whites and minority's which would seem perfect ground for a Populist democratic party (the poorer working class would trend back to the democratic from say a high in the 2020s-2030s in trumpist republican politics as shown from democratic gains in the Midwest margin wise) i would assume it would either be a mistake or a error. Don't get me wrong, i would think a republican party like this would narrow the margins here big time due to moderates and wealthier folks coming home to there party (like pre-reagan) but i see that narrowly going only as far as 60-40% margins throughout the four boroughs minus Staten island with maybe 55-60% in Queens if the Republican is right and other factors are there.

Orleans County in New York seems out of place. It has only voted once for a Democrat and that was in 1964. It doesn't have any significant minority population (89% White plus White Hispanics) nor no democratic trend. If any thing as shown through its history, i think it would trend for a moderate republican party.

Why would Wisconsin be so much more republican then Michigan? At a national level, yes, Wisconsin is 1-3 points more, on average, more republican then Michigan but that maps shows Wisconsin something like a R+5-10 State while Michigan is much less so. Why would democrats gain here like in the rest of the rust belt and narrowly some of those western and eastern county's. Its already been questioned below but i cant see any way the republicans can make Madison a likely county for them. If any there best shoot is tossup up and they will gain post alignment margin wise but unless Madison College and city is suddenly populated by conservatives then i fail to see how republicans win. Even if the Suburbs in the county go here plus the outer rings of the city, the county would most likely still go democrat and by a fair 1-10 point margin.

[_]

Yay IL is next, ima guess the Ds have a bit of ground in NW IL and Southern IL, but that's defeated by GOP Domination in the Collars and thinning of the Cook margin, R+3 overall.

[GlobeSoc]

I see there has been a rebound for democrats in the industrial areas from 2016 in the Midwest (Specifically Ohio and Pennsylvania). They also are doing much better in the rural areas here and in the Northeast post-trump. Again i could easily mistake this for say a 1968 Election map which goes to show how this is more or less a return of normalcy to the New Deal Coalition except with more minority's as a factor and a little more rural and industrial appeal for republicans.

Also is Maine a democratic PVI? there. I see the democrats regained the northern county's there and industrial timber areas there which seems odd due to the fact that republicans are still winning those same types of areas big in the midwest in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and too a lesser extend in Ohio and Michigan.

Also i see Manhattan and Queens borough are 40%> along with 50%> in Queens and the Bronx. Is that a mistake because the Five boroughs are so democratic and have been throughout history and with non Hispanic white populations still staying in a minority and probably growing more so combined with a the city still containing loads of poor whites and minority's which would seem perfect ground for a Populist democratic party (the poorer working class would trend back to the democratic from say a high in the 2020s-2030s in trumpist republican politics as shown from democratic gains in the Midwest margin wise) i would assume it would either be a mistake or a error. Don't get me wrong, i would think a republican party like this would narrow the margins here big time due to moderates and wealthier folks coming home to there party (like pre-reagan) but i see that narrowly going only as far as 60-40% margins throughout the four boroughs minus Staten island with maybe 55-60% in Queens if the Republican is right and other factors are there.

Orleans County in New York seems out of place. It has only voted once for a Democrat and that was in 1964. It doesn't have any significant minority population (89% White plus White Hispanics) nor no democratic trend. If any thing as shown through its history, i think it would trend for a moderate republican party.

Why would Wisconsin be so much more republican then Michigan? At a national level, yes, Wisconsin is 1-3 points more, on average, more republican then Michigan but that maps shows Wisconsin something like a R+5-10 State while Michigan is much less so. Why would democrats gain here like in the rest of the rust belt and narrowly some of those western and eastern county's. Its already been questioned below but i cant see any way the republicans can make Madison a likely county for them. If any there best shoot is tossup up and they will gain post alignment margin wise but unless Madison College and city is suddenly populated by conservatives then i fail to see how republicans win. Even if the Suburbs in the county go here plus the outer rings of the city, the county would most likely still go democrat and by a fair 1-10 point margin.

Orleans County, NYC are mistakes. New York was one of the last states I added in the previous revisions. Orleans is just a misclick, NYC is overexaggeration of the democratic losses there.

Madison is >40% because it's a lean r county, although I could see the case for it being lean or likely d. What rating would you assign it?

Michigan is WAD, it has PPP closer to IN and OH than WI and MN. So is Maine, it's poorer than Minnesota and Wisconsin, lasted longer for dems in this alignment, and is closer to OH and MI

Politically, WI and MN are very similar to the interior plains in this alignment, even if more urban.

[GlobeSoc]

Yay IL is next, ima guess the Ds have a bit of ground in NW IL and Southern IL, but that's defeated by GOP Domination in the Collars and thinning of the Cook margin, R+3 overall.

The only real improvements for dems will be in Peoria, Central, and Southern Illinois. The rest will stay the same or crater. The problem for dems in NW IL is that most(but not all, Fulton is one exception) counties west and north of peoria have political behavior similar to Iowa these past couple of elections and have similar PPP to Iowa, and similar to Iowa=doom for democrats

[The Govanah Jake]

I see there has been a rebound for democrats in the industrial areas from 2016 in the Midwest (Specifically Ohio and Pennsylvania). They also are doing much better in the rural areas here and in the Northeast post-trump. Again i could easily mistake this for say a 1968 Election map which goes to show how this is more or less a return of normalcy to the New Deal Coalition except with more minority's as a factor and a little more rural and industrial appeal for republicans.

Also is Maine a democratic PVI? there. I see the democrats regained the northern county's there and industrial timber areas there which seems odd due to the fact that republicans are still winning those same types of areas big in the midwest in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and too a lesser extend in Ohio and Michigan.

Also i see Manhattan and Queens borough are 40%> along with 50%> in Queens and the Bronx. Is that a mistake because the Five boroughs are so democratic and have been throughout history and with non Hispanic white populations still staying in a minority and probably growing more so combined with a the city still containing loads of poor whites and minority's which would seem perfect ground for a Populist democratic party (the poorer working class would trend back to the democratic from say a high in the 2020s-2030s in trumpist republican politics as shown from democratic gains in the Midwest margin wise) i would assume it would either be a mistake or a error. Don't get me wrong, i would think a republican party like this would narrow the margins here big time due to moderates and wealthier folks coming home to there party (like pre-reagan) but i see that narrowly going only as far as 60-40% margins throughout the four boroughs minus Staten island with maybe 55-60% in Queens if the Republican is right and other factors are there.

Orleans County in New York seems out of place. It has only voted once for a Democrat and that was in 1964. It doesn't have any significant minority population (89% White plus White Hispanics) nor no democratic trend. If any thing as shown through its history, i think it would trend for a moderate republican party.

Why would Wisconsin be so much more republican then Michigan? At a national level, yes, Wisconsin is 1-3 points more, on average, more republican then Michigan but that maps shows Wisconsin something like a R+5-10 State while Michigan is much less so. Why would democrats gain here like in the rest of the rust belt and narrowly some of those western and eastern county's. Its already been questioned below but i cant see any way the republicans can make Madison a likely county for them. If any there best shoot is tossup up and they will gain post alignment margin wise but unless Madison College and city is suddenly populated by conservatives then i fail to see how republicans win. Even if the Suburbs in the county go here plus the outer rings of the city, the county would most likely still go democrat and by a fair 1-10 point margin.

Orleans County, NYC are mistakes. New York was one of the last states I added in the previous revisions. Orleans is just a misclick, NYC is overexaggeration of the democratic losses there.

Madison is >40% because it's a lean r county, although I could see the case for it being lean or likely d. What rating would you assign it?

Michigan is WAD, it has PPP closer to IN and OH than WI and MN. So is Maine, it's poorer than Minnesota and Wisconsin, lasted longer for dems in this alignment, and is closer to OH and MI

Politically, WI and MN are very similar to the interior plains in this alignment, even if more urban.

1. I figured.

2. I would rate it as a lean D due to Madison but it could just as well be a tossup due to everything else

Also waiting for the county returns from the upper south; probably the most interesting part of the rest of the map for me.