Sol
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,198
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« on: December 22, 2013, 01:16:34 PM » |
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If I recall, Black turnout in Georgia actually fell in 2012- probably due to voter ID. However, the demographic changes in Georgia aren't the kind that will be canceled out by any potentially decreased turnout- they'll make up for lowered turnout an then some.
That's assuming, as Mechaman has pointed out, that current trends will continue with no modification thanks to changes in the parties. However, I actually think the trends in Georgia are more likely to put the state in the D-column long term than those in NC and VA. That's simply because in the latter 2, the shift is more dependent on moderate white suburbanites.
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