BC will have 93 ridings the next election, up from 87.
https://bcebc.ca/2022-final-electoral-division-names-populations-and-deviations/?step=map-allSome notable changes I saw:
Vernon-Monashee, which was a very close NDP win (36%/35%) is redistributed away into three other ridings.
Kootenay-Monashee picks up the eastern half and would still be a strong NDP seat.
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream takes in some of the southwest and is still a strong BCU seat. Interestingly the new
Vernon-Lumby would remain NDP by a small but slightly larger amount (37%NDP 34% BCL/BCU).
We now have two fully urban seats that cover Kamloops and Kelowna;
Kamloops Centre, which is fully urban and
Kamloops-North Thompson, which is mostly rural-suburban, replace the old North and south seats which were “rurban” seats. The NDP comes very close to winning Kamloops Centre but not close enough, would still remain BCU.
Kelowna Centre is formed from three seats; the core portion of the city on the east side of Okanagan Lake is removed from Kelowna West which is now
West Kelowna-Peachland (since it gains Peachland from Penticton). The southwest corner of Kelowna-Lake Country is moved into KC, making the new
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream more rural.
Kelowna-Mission losses only a small part of its north west. Still BCU country out here
the new
Fraser-Nicola, loses territory in the north to
Cariboo-Chilcotin (Ashcroft, Cashe Creek, Green Timber Plateau area) , but extends west on the south side of the riding taking in areas from Chilliwack-Kent and Abbotsford-Mission. This actually would turn the seat NDP based on 2020 results (using ridingbuilder as best as I can, i got about 41% NDP, 37% BCL/BCU)
In Vancouver, Van-False Creek is redistributed out into three ridings as well; the new
Van-Yaletown now is home to most of the centre-right vote and would be a BCL/BCU seat by about 46% to 39%.
Van-South Granville would be even stronger for the NDP (57%) taking in the southwest part of old Van-False Creek, northern Van-Fairview and a sliver of eastern Van-Point Grey
Van-Little Mountain is made up of areas of 5 ridings, mostly from Van-Fairview (east, south parts) and northern Van-Langara. This would remain NDP (51%)
Vancouver-Langara loses most everything north of 49th but gains some east of Fraser, taking from Van-Fraserview. This makes it safer for BCU by bumping up to about 46%.
The Burnaby-Coquitlam corridor had 9, now has 10 seats, same with Surrey where we also increase from 9-10 seats.
In Surrey, the biggest change would be Surrey-Cloverdale is split basically in half; the western side of HW15 becomes
Surrey-Serpentine River, and the east keeps the name
Surrey-Cloverdale. Both seats would be NDP. Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers are redistributed into an east/west alignment (
Surrey North and
Surrey City Centre now) vs the north/south one currently. Both remain strong NDP seats.
Abbostford/Mission will have 6 seats vs 5; the new
Langley-Abbostford in unsurprisingly a BCU seat (about 43%) While the shrunken down
Langley-Walnut Grove (formerly Langley East) and
Langley-Willowbrook (formerly Langley) have an increase in support for the NDP.
On Vancouver Island,
Cowichan Valley shifts considerably north into Nanaimo, losing from Shawnigan Lake south to Malahat area to
Juan de fuca-Malahat. Bad news for the Greens who would lose this to the NDP who would have won 45% vs 39 for the Greens.
Juan de fuca-Malahat also gains Metchosin while losing Langford and Highlands. This has a sizeable impact to the NDP, decreasing their vote to, based on 2020, to 52% down from 67% (Horgans seat, the NDP held the seat in the by-election but with only 53%). With most of the Green vote from Cowichan Valley now in Juan de fuca-Malahat, this is going to be one to watch as it could be seen as a Green or NDP seat.
The new
Langford-Highlands is a strong NDP seat, again caveat that this used to be Horgans seat so the NDPs numbers are probably inflated.
Nanaimo is split into two seats; the northern portion is now
Nanaimo-Lantzville, pulling Lantzville in from Parksville-Qualicum. The southern part is added with Cedar, Harmac and Gabriola island to create
Nanaimo-Gabriola. Both are NDP seats. Parksville-Qualicum is eliminated and mostly replaced by
Ladysmith-Oceanside, the riding now surrounds the city of Nanaimo from north to south. Would be NDP too.
