43rd British Columbia general election

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP 2012 byelection winner and Chilliwack-Hope MLA from 2012-2013 Gwen O'Mahony is the B.C Conservative nominee for Nanaimo-Lantzville.

Nanaimo is something of an NDP stronghold, but it's also an area that has supported populist right wing types in the past.

She also ran for a federal NDP nomination as recently as 2019. Usually when people swing wildly from left to far right either they are a TERF or they were anti-vaxxers who got radicalized during the pandemic and joined convoy protests etc...

When I first heard the news, I thought it was COVID radicalization, though it seems she was quite pleased with the government's COVID response at the time.

[mileslunn]

While reason she swung over is questionable, it does seem covid radicalized quite a few.  I also think modern left is too closely tied with academia and social activists who focus too much on issues many see as peripheral, not bread and butter ones.  Still even if right winning blue collar on cultural issues, not sure they are economic issues necessarily.  I think much as you see on right, its more an axis than linear line and those who were economically left but socially right seem to be swinging over to right wing parties.  But at same time those who are economically right but socially left progressive parties are having some success amongst. 

On twitter, Christy Clark's ex husband Mark Marissen complained BC United has swung too much to right trying to be like BC Conservatives and he would be going NDP this fall so for every Gwen O'Mahony types, you probably get people like Mark Marissen in other direction. 

I actually think Wab Kinew is type progressives need as he seems to be able to appeal to both centrists and traditional blue collar and very much focuses on pocket book issues.  He is in some ways like Horgan, whereas while early and will see what happens in campaign, I get impression Eby is more like Trudeau or Wynne who have had issues.

[Hatman 🍁]

While reason she swung over is questionable, it does seem covid radicalized quite a few.  I also think modern left is too closely tied with academia and social activists who focus too much on issues many see as peripheral, not bread and butter ones.

The right is just as guilty of this. Case in point.

[mileslunn]

While reason she swung over is questionable, it does seem covid radicalized quite a few.  I also think modern left is too closely tied with academia and social activists who focus too much on issues many see as peripheral, not bread and butter ones.

The right is just as guilty of this. Case in point.

Absolutely thus why you are getting sorting with people going in both directions and a re-alignment rather than just one directional.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Online Leger survey that 'confirms' the B.C Conservative lead over B.C United but also counters the Mainstreet IVR poll.

March 22-24, 2024

Overall
NDP 43%
B.C Conservative 26%
B.C United 18%
Green 11%

Metro Vancouver (whatever that includes)
NDP 42%
B.C Conservative 28%
B.C United 19%
Green 9%

Vancouver Island
NDP 46%
B.C Conservative 17%
B.C United 20%
Green 14%

Rest of Province (this is the term Leger used, and not 'Interior')
NDP: 44%
B.C Conservative 27%
B.C United 16%
Green 12%

Essentially I don't know where they included Surrey and the Fraser Valley, or maybe just the Fraser Valley. There are a handful of other areas I don't know either, but they aren't as big (the North Shore mainly: North and West Vancouver and Powell River-Sunshine Coast.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1776654069144207512

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

[Holmes]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

Might as well if these are the numbers they’re seeing too.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

Very unlikely. Eby has said on many occasions he wouldn't and they NDP only just started nominating candidates this weekend.

This rumor has been thrown out since Eby won the leadership.

[mileslunn]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

Very unlikely. Eby has said on many occasions he wouldn't and they NDP only just started nominating candidates this weekend.

This rumor has been thrown out since Eby won the leadership.

Eby's wife is pregnant and expecting a baby in June so probably doesn't want to be on campaign trail for that.

[mileslunn]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

[DL]

A lot of the remaining BC United voters are federal Liberal types - and I suspect that many would vote NDP before they would vote for a party of rightwing conspiracy theorists, climate change deniers and anti-vaccine fanatics like the BC Cons. Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marissen tweeted this week that he would vote NDP if the only alternative was the BC Cons.

Also, no one knows the BC Con leader John Rustad - and by all accounts he is very weak and underwhelming - so once you get into a leadership focused campaign - the BC United party could regain some ground since they have way more money, more incumbents and a leader in Falcon, who while unappealing - is much more experienced performer than Rustad

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

A lot of the remaining BC United voters are federal Liberal types - and I suspect that many would vote NDP before they would vote for a party of rightwing conspiracy theorists, climate change deniers and anti-vaccine fanatics like the BC Cons. Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marissen tweeted this week that he would vote NDP if the only alternative was the BC Cons.

Also, no one knows the BC Con leader John Rustad - and by all accounts he is very weak and underwhelming - so once you get into a leadership focused campaign - the BC United party could regain some ground since they have way more money, more incumbents and a leader in Falcon, who while unappealing - is much more experienced performer than Rustad

Obviously I have a bias, but both Rustad and Banman are unappealing. When people desire change sometimes that doesn't matter of course.

Rustad was a provincial Liberal MLA from 2005 and a cabinet minister under Christy Clark from 2013 to 2017. As a Liberal MLA and cabinet minister he signed off on all the things he now claims to oppose such as the carbon tax and SOGI.

Although not high profile, he is clearly an opportunist who likely recognized that B.C United Leader Kevin Falcon's Reagonomics economics views combined with support for 'woke' social policy was an odd combination that created space for an alternative. Of course, I don't know what went on behind the scenes to create this split between Rustad and Falcon.

It's interesting how these far right types who see conspiracy theories everywhere keep falling for obviously inauthentic people or outright con artists like John Rustad, Maxim Bernier and Donald Trump.

Bruce Banman meanwhile is a defeated one term mayor of Abbotsford whose highest profile move was to authorize the spreading of chicken manure at night around a homeless camp in order to clear it out. This inhumane method likely cost Banman reelection although it was a narrow defeat.

[adma]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

As an example of this, not in British Columbia, but in New Brunswick, former Jean Charest era Progressive Conservative M.P John Herron, is seeking the New Brunswick provincial Liberal nomination. Blaine Higgs is probably the closest example of John Rustad given that B.C, like New Brunswick, isn't resource dominated right wing like Alberta or Saskatchewan. Of course, New Brunswick does have the Irving dominance unlike British Columbia.

[mileslunn]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

As an example of this, not in British Columbia, but in New Brunswick, former Jean Charest era Progressive Conservative M.P John Herron, is seeking the New Brunswick provincial Liberal nomination. Blaine Higgs is probably the closest example of John Rustad given that B.C, like New Brunswick, isn't resource dominated right wing like Alberta or Saskatchewan. Of course, New Brunswick does have the Irving dominance unlike British Columbia.

New Brunswick is also a lot more rural and there is the Baptist belt in South while BC has Bible belt in Fraser Valley, with more moving out from GVRD that is weakening considerably.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1783897808493220347?t=xBk_Fw0zs_3v5qA...

And so what became a possibility has become reality.  A poll finds the Conservatives tied, which I think gives the lead in modeled seats. Now for now this is a outlier, but it may be all that they need. Just Polling close enough to the NDP will mean that there is enough viability for opposition consolidation - rather than dissolution - for whenever there happens to be the next election.

[Harlow]

When was the last time a Canadian provincial party went from having no seats in the previous election to leading the government? Excluding merged parties like the UCP.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1783897808493220347?t=xBk_Fw0zs_3v5qA...
And so what became a possibility has become reality.  A poll finds the Conservatives tied, which I think gives the lead in modeled seats. Now for now this is a outlier, but it may be all that they need. Just Polling close enough to the NDP will mean that there is enough viability for opposition consolidation - rather than dissolution - for whenever there happens to be the next election.

Odd, the full poll has slightly different numbers including a slight Conservative lead. The first caveat of course is that Mainstreet Polls are junk as CEO Quitto Maggi has been caught previously trying to influence elections and not just poll them (both in Calgary in 2017 against Naheed Nenshi and I believe in Toronto as well in the recent mayoral by-election.) Apparently during several other municipal elections and by-elections as well.

After the Calgary election when the polling association called him out, Maggi gave a very Trumpian reply denial.

In this case, everybody should realize the graphic presented can't be correct as a sample size of 475 produces a margin of error at the 95% confidence interval of +-4.6% and not +-3.2%.

For anybody not familiar, determining the margin of error at the 95% confidence interval (19 times out of 20) is fairly simple. It's 1/square root of the sample size.

Even taking this poll totally seriously though, there was a nearly as recent ResearchCo poll that has the NDP up 18% over the Conservatives. There has been a difference in results between online surveys like ResearchCo and IVR polls.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1783974004056834267

[warandwar]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

[Oryxslayer]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

Exactly what I meant. The poll may be a (obvious) outlier, but if the purpose is to consolidate the opposition to the NDP, well then stuff like this doesn't need to be perfectly accurate.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

[adma]

Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

[MaxQue]

Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

There is no Poilievre bleed, there is only a fraudulous "pollster".