43rd British Columbia general election

[Harlow]

(Moved from International general discussion.)

I couldn't find a thread for this, so apologies if one has already been created.

But I had to post this wild poll somewhere.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1700228230479749351?s=20

Would completely upend politics in the province if other polls confirmed. And to think it could be due simply to BC Liberals changing their name.

[Harlow]

Death, Taxes, BC Conservatives polling well before the election is called.

This is more than just "polling well" like they have in the past outside of election season. They are polling ahead of what has been the dominant right-of-center party in BC for 30 years. I think that's pretty noteworthy, especially if it's repeated in other polling.

[Harlow]

Death, Taxes, BC Conservatives polling well before the election is called.

This is more than just "polling well" like they have in the past outside of election season. They are polling ahead of what has been the dominant right-of-center party in BC for 30 years. I think that's pretty noteworthy, especially if it's repeated in other polling.

I suspect the big problem is than people do not recognise BC United as the main opposition party, due to poor name recognition.

Right, which is hilarious.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1701998033712435553?t=qo_TZszKvmhCvsx...

Well they now have a seat.

They actually already did since John Rustad joined.

Yes, this makes them an official party in the BC legislature.

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1701997140338475501?s=20

[Harlow]

Research Co Poll continues to show a lack of knowledge among British Columbians for who B.C United are.

NDP: 48%
B.C United: 20%
Conservative: 19%
Greens 12%

https://researchco.ca/2023/09/26/bcpoli-sept2023/

I'm beginning to feel like unless we have a polling question specifically asking people if they know the BCU used to be the Liberals, we can't say with certainty how ignorant people are.

It's a little out there to think that half of the Liberals' voter base suddenly forgot the party they like wasn't called the Conservatives.

[Harlow]

Another poll showing the Cons comfortably in second place:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709969175685255604?s=20

We also got a question about how well-known it is that the BC Liberals changed their name:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709976014191792340?s=20

The cross-tabs show that among the four parties, Con voters are the least aware of the name change, although still with a majority for awareness (58-40).

[Harlow]

We also got a question about how well-known it is that the BC Liberals changed their name:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709976014191792340?s=20

I'm fairly certain that awareness of the name change is even lower than what these numbers suggests, I think the phrasing of this question significantly inflates the number of people answering "aware".

Asking people, "are you aware the BC Liberals changed their name to the BC United Party?" is basically just asking them "this thing that happened - does it ring any bells for you?" because it directly prompts them with the information and primes them to dig up any memories about it.

like i bet a lot of people answer that they're familiar with it after having a thought process that's something like, "oh yeah, now that you mention it, I do remember hearing about it when it happened"

so they answer in this poll they're aware the BC Liberals are now BC United, even if they didn't remember that fact at the start of the poll when they were asked about their voting intentions

They should have a poll that doesn’t prompt people on what the parties are, just ask them to name the party they would vote for, and see how many of them say BC Liberals.

Says a lot about me maybe that if I had unlimited money and resources that’s the sort of thing I’d spend it on.

[Harlow]

BCU and BC Cons still virtually tied in new Angus Reid poll. This is one year out from the scheduled date of the next election.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1715037510936465564?s=20

[Harlow]

So...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1731382666027483297?s=20

[Harlow]

When was the last time a Canadian provincial party went from having no seats in the previous election to leading the government? Excluding merged parties like the UCP.

[Harlow]

Abacus Data poll, May 6-9:

NDP: 40% (-4 since November)
Con: 34% (+8)
BCU: 14% (-3)
Green: 10% (+1)

https://abacusdata.ca/bc-poll-ndp-ahead-by-6/

[Harlow]

is the bc Conservative the og Conservative Party? or is it a different entity?

Same party as was founded in 1903. They haven't won a seat in an election since 1975.

[Harlow]

And what will they name this new party? Because if it doesn't have "Conservative" in the name, then you can expect it won't do as well.

It is kind of funny that if they combined the names it would be the United Conservative Party ala Alberta.