This race is a tossup.

[°Leprechaun]

If you feel one of the two is clearly more likely to win, even if you aren't too sure, vote false.
If you think it's basically a tossup vote true.

This poll could easily be criticized, but I don't think it clear at all as to which candidate will win, so I vote true.

It could remain close up to election day and even longer.

Edit: I screwed up the other poll, so I re-did it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I said before, at a minimum this is at least a more sensible summation than Trump being inevitable.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I voted "False, Biden is likely to win" because I think that is slightly but significantly more likely than a Donald Trump win, which is in turn because Donald Trump is an awful-beyond-description candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is the D inc and it's a blue wall it's a 270 to 319 map FL and TX are Safe R

[BlueSwan]

Well, I don't just think Trump is slightly more likely to win, I think he is the overwhelming (~90%) favourite for the following reasons:

- His polling lead in the swing states is solid and stable just like Obamas in 2012.

- Polls in the KEY swing states - which are WI/PA/MI - are far more likely to underestimate Trump than overestimate Trump. The polling errors in 2016 and 2020 were largest in the midwestern states which suggest a systemic problem with polling Trumps support in these types of states, that I very much doubt has been solved (probably because it simply can't be solved if these voters just won't talk to pollsters).

- ALL the key issues outside of abortion favours Trump. I believe those issues are immigration/border security, inflation and "wokeness" in general. People underestimate how much the "wokeness" nonsense motivates people who otherwise don't care about or understand politics. Anything that even smells slightly of "trans", no matter how nonsensical it is (like the bathroom "issue") is a losing issue for democrats.

- Abortion is the BIG winning issue for democrats, but Trump has largely diffused this by taking a moderate position. Infact democrats even risk overplaying their cards by arguing hard against a pretty reasonable 15 week ban (and I say this as someone who is totally pro choice).

- Biden squeeked by a victory in 2020 by securing record turnout from an extremely broad coalition of voters who preferred a "generic D" like Biden over Trump. Biden is now deeply unpopular and Trump has been out of office for 4 years, so Biden is unlikely to get the same turnout and getting rid of Trump won't be as big a motivator either.

- Biden has a massive problem with securing the leftist vote and the youth vote. Unfortunately some people just want to see the world burn.

- People are hoping that the court cases will make a difference but I just don't see that happening. As Trump has said himself, he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and it wouldn't matter.

As radical and risky as it sounds, and yes I know it sounds mad, I think Biden needs to drop out. I don't even care if Kamala is then the D candidate. I think even she has a better shot at turning this around than Biden does, even though I'd obviously prefer a stronger candidate.

[walleye26]

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: This is a country of f*****g rubes. If Trump wins its because there are a lot of people who vote for him similar to family guy described “undecided voters.”

I do think Biden wins Wisconsin though. Trump would flip back GA, AZ, NV, and the Gaza protests cost him MI.

[Inmate Trump]

It's a toss-up, but lean Trump if I had to pick one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a toss-up, but lean Trump if I had to pick one.

No, it's Lean Biden lol stop being a Doomer

[MR DARK BRANDON]

If you believe it’s tilt D, would you vote tossup or is that only if you’re completely unsure?

[DS0816]

If you feel one of the two is clearly more likely to win, even if you aren't too sure, vote false.
If you think it's basically a tossup vote true.

This poll could easily be criticized, but I don't think it clear at all as to which candidate will win, so I vote true.

It could remain close up to election day and even longer.

Edit: I screwed up the other poll, so I re-did it.

Part of this depends on context.

If one wants to color a map which some states shown in yellow…Election 2024 is a “Tossup”.

If one wants to figure out which of these two major U.S. political parties is likely to win with each level of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House…to conclude Election 2024 is a  “Tossup” is not realistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not it's Lean D since SOTU

[emailking]

Coin flip.

[Umengus]

Nope. Trump ahead. Things can change but I doubt it, he has maintened lead for 8 months.

[Xing]

I think Trump is a narrow favorite, though Toss-Up is a fair rating. Far more reasonable than acting as though either candidate winning is a foregone conclusion.

[Dan the Roman]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

1. He will have vastly more money and a better turnout operation. In fact, the GOP in AZ/MI has never recovered from 2020

2. The median turnout scenario favors highly engaged voters, and the median place double-haters who are highly engaged land is Biden+30

However

1. It is clear that the American people, and almost any plausible American electorate, do not want to reelect Joe Biden. They feel their lives have gotten worse, things are headed in the wrong direction, and there is virtually zero chance that things will improve. A majority of the November electorate, regardless of how they vote, will do so believing that Joe Biden has been a bad President in his first term, and that his second term will be worse than his first.

2 Polling shows these voters consistently fantasizing about getting rid of Biden, whether it manifests in high third-party totals, implausible Trump leads, or hypothetical Haley leads approaching Reagan's 1984 numbers. Hostility to Trump exists, and it is extremely deep as illustrated on this website, but it is relegated to around 46%. Another 10-15% seem hostile to Trump more because his refusal to stand aside is an obstacle to their ability to get rid of Joe Biden than because they fear Trump. If their anger is because they do not believe Trump can win, not because they prefer Joe Biden to him, then even if they also believe Trump will be a bad President, they may well swing to Trump.


All in all, I don't buy the polls as representative of what will happen in November, but I do buy them as indicative of public opinion. A large majority do not want Joe Biden to be President, the number who see Trump as an existential threat are numerous but not quite a majority, and if we had mandatory voting like Australia I think Trump would be a solid favorite. However, the plurality that is most motivated to vote are the anti-Trump fanatics and if turnout is low they may be enough.

[xavier110]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

1. He will have vastly more money and a better turnout operation. In fact, the GOP in AZ/MI has never recovered from 2020

2. The median turnout scenario favors highly engaged voters, and the median place double-haters who are highly engaged land is Biden+30

However

1. It is clear that the American people, and almost any plausible American electorate, do not want to reelect Joe Biden. They feel their lives have gotten worse, things are headed in the wrong direction, and there is virtually zero chance that things will improve. A majority of the November electorate, regardless of how they vote, will do so believing that Joe Biden has been a bad President in his first term, and that his second term will be worse than his first.

2 Polling shows these voters consistently fantasizing about getting rid of Biden, whether it manifests in high third-party totals, implausible Trump leads, or hypothetical Haley leads approaching Reagan's 1984 numbers. Hostility to Trump exists, and it is extremely deep as illustrated on this website, but it is relegated to around 46%. Another 10-15% seem hostile to Trump more because his refusal to stand aside is an obstacle to their ability to get rid of Joe Biden than because they fear Trump. If their anger is because they do not believe Trump can win, not because they prefer Joe Biden to him, then even if they also believe Trump will be a bad President, they may well swing to Trump.


All in all, I don't buy the polls as representative of what will happen in November, but I do buy them as indicative of public opinion. A large majority do not want Joe Biden to be President, the number who see Trump as an existential threat are numerous but not quite a majority, and if we had mandatory voting like Australia I think Trump would be a solid favorite. However, the plurality that is most motivated to vote are the anti-Trump fanatics and if turnout is low they may be enough.

I agree with this. Dems need to pray for significant turnout dropoff because a lower turnout with highly engaged voters will be a repeat of 2022 where the swing states almost uniformly go D despite strange things going on elsewhere.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not look at MD S and WI and AZ and it will come down to MT S for the majority control  and NEB

Where is that Trump Toupee he is no where l

[DS0816]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

…

Not with a job-approval rating which consistently struggles for 40 percent.

April 26, 2024—Gallup reports 38.7 percent.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Trump is about a 60-40 favorite, but I think that's within the range that I'd call the election a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

…

Not with a job-approval rating which consistently struggles for 40 percent.

April 26, 2024—Gallup reports 38.7 percent.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx

Gallup had it 38%, in 22 and we won blue states other polls have had it at 45(51, Marist and PPP, besides it's votes not polls that count we haven't voted yet

Look at Gallup in Nov 22 it never been at 50% since 21

[Dan the Roman]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

…

Not with a job-approval rating which consistently struggles for 40 percent.

April 26, 2024—Gallup reports 38.7 percent.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx

I think the only direction both candidates are going is down. Both are old, deteriorating noticeably, and Trump has benefited that whereas he is deteriorating in an air conditioned court from which cameras have been banned, Biden is falling apart amidst violence on the streets and chaos abroad.

I honestly think the talk of probabilities is off because this election, like 1980 has the potential to break wide open. Biden is unpopular enough and things are going badly enough it is possible thr voters who believe things cannot go on like this turn out en masses and worry about the consequences later.

So my 60-40 odds include a 25% chance of a Biden landslide and a 20% chance of a Trump one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite

…

Not with a job-approval rating which consistently struggles for 40 percent.

April 26, 2024—Gallup reports 38.7 percent.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx

I think the only direction both candidates are going is down. Both are old, deteriorating noticeably, and Trump has benefited that whereas he is deteriorating in an air conditioned court from which cameras have been banned, Biden is falling apart amidst violence on the streets and chaos abroad.

I honestly think the talk of probabilities is off because this election, like 1980 has the potential to break wide open. Biden is unpopular enough and things are going badly enough it is possible thr voters who believe things cannot go on like this turn out en masses and worry about the consequences later.

So my 60-40 odds include a 25% chance of a Biden landslide and a 20% chance of a Trump one.

It won't be a landslide, it's a 319 map AZ, GA, NC, VA, WI, PA and MI and NV for a 218/217 DH 51/49 Sen net NE lose WV and win NH, WA and NC G for 26R/24 DG

That is a 45/51% Approval the same as we did in 22 when Biden was at 45% the MSNBC and Steve KONAKI ALREADY said Biden isn't at 38% Gallup he was at 45/51.

There is a slight chance we win TX but ALLRED and Powell are gonna do exactly like Hegar -9%

[Plankton5165]

I voted false, Trump will win.

Trump won in 2016 and almost did in 2020.

He was expected to lose both times, according to the polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I voted false, Trump will win.

Trump won in 2016 and almost did in 2020.

He was expected to lose both times, according to the polls.

Lol Trump is an insurrection voters are gonna take that to the polls when we vote that the polls aren't showing and Marist and PPP as always shows Ds gaining not losing


You are the only D that believes Trump will win, that's odd

[SnowLabrador]

False. Trump is heavily favored unless there's a seismic shift.