Australia - 7 September 2013
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« on: January 29, 2013, 09:03:46 PM »
« edited: August 04, 2013, 12:26:31 AM by Senator Polnut »
Julia Gillard has announced a Federal Election for Saturday 14 September.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2013, 09:18:56 PM »
That's not exactly normal procedure. Tongue So dissolution on 6 July if my math's right, and game on.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2013, 09:24:24 PM »
Nope Parliament will be dissolved on 12 August. Holy sh**t Tony's got to get some policies and he's got oodles of time to cost them.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2013, 09:27:59 PM »
Balance & Repeal isn't good enough? Wink (Isn't for me either, as I've often said) Even Repeal can't be done without 39 Coalition senators, which certainly won't happen this cycle.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2013, 09:49:12 PM »
Here are the 2010 election results, including notional results to account for the South Australian and Victorian redistributions. All credit to Antony Green for his pendulum. Bigger version in the gallery.

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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2013, 10:15:02 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2013, 10:20:35 PM by Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son »
This will be an interesting campaign and election, that's for sure!

Way too early to make seat-by-seat predictions, but I predict a Coalition majority.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2013, 10:31:34 PM »
I stand by my prediction of a 54-46 coalition win in the 2PP... huge swings against the government in Tasmania and New South Wales, etc...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2013, 10:33:25 PM »
I'd say 52/48 2PP. I'll believe '96 if and when it happens, not before.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2013, 10:38:15 PM »
Way way too early to make a prediction. What I will say, is there won't be a blow-out either way.
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Knives
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM »
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2013, 02:23:37 AM »
September looks to be a great election month:

09.09. - Norway
14.09. - Australia
15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany/Hesse
29.09. - Austria (unless SPÖVP are stupid enough to set a joint date with Germany)
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2013, 02:56:15 AM »
Quote from: Solopop on January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2013, 03:26:35 AM »
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 02:56:15 AM
Quote from: Solopop on January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.

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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2013, 03:39:52 AM »
Quote from: Former President Polnut on January 30, 2013, 03:26:35 AM
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 02:56:15 AM
Quote from: Solopop on January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.



That's from the latest poll for the state Labor party, not the federal one. The latest federal poll that included Victorian data, published a month ago yesterday, showed a small swing towards the Coalition.
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Knives
solopop
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2013, 04:06:49 AM »
Generally looking at polls in Victoria, Labor are in a better position than the Liberals, whether that equals gains who knows.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2013, 04:25:27 AM »
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 03:39:52 AM
Quote from: Former President Polnut on January 30, 2013, 03:26:35 AM
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 02:56:15 AM
Quote from: Solopop on January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.



That's from the latest poll for the state Labor party, not the federal one. The latest federal poll that included Victorian data, published a month ago yesterday, showed a small swing towards the Coalition.

Sorry the last poll had the ALP up 54-46 in VIC Federally, I didn't remember clearly.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2013, 04:32:32 AM »
Quote from: Former President Polnut on January 30, 2013, 04:25:27 AM
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 03:39:52 AM
Quote from: Former President Polnut on January 30, 2013, 03:26:35 AM
Quote from: Reagan and Thatcher's Long Lost Son on January 30, 2013, 02:56:15 AM
Quote from: Solopop on January 30, 2013, 01:36:23 AM
It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.



That's from the latest poll for the state Labor party, not the federal one. The latest federal poll that included Victorian data, published a month ago yesterday, showed a small swing towards the Coalition.

Sorry the last poll had the ALP up 54-46 in VIC Federally, I didn't remember clearly.

That's alright, and the 54-46 figure is a 1.3% swing to the Coalition in VIC since the last federal election. If repeated uniformly, Corangamite and Deakin would go Liberal, and La Trobe would narrowly stay Labor.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2013, 07:07:51 AM »
Candidate declaration from the London-Ecuador constituency
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2013, 07:16:23 AM »

Useless attention-seeking twat...
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Franzl
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« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2013, 07:19:22 AM »

For the Troll Party of Australia, perhaps?
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2013, 07:52:37 AM »

Even if he does run, I can't see his chances of winning being too high.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2013, 04:15:07 PM »
Antony Green had an article on t this a couple of months back. He'd need to take his seat within a certain amount if time or be disqualified, but to take his seat, he would need to set for outside his sanctuary and face up to those rape allegations.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2013, 10:22:43 PM »
BREAKING NEWS: Craig Thomson, Labor-turned-Independent member for Dobell, has been arrested for 149 fraud charges.

Read more here: http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=841104
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2013, 05:41:29 PM »
This is both amazing and utterly hilarious:

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/membersgallery/galleryindexpage.shtml

Showbusiness for ugly people indeed!
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2013, 11:35:30 PM »


Wow.
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