Canadian federal election - 2015

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Far too early for this thread to really have much purpose, but whatever.

Anyways, Trudeau may well be able to do what his dad did (let us not allow understandable dislike for him or his party obscure the possibility), but he's not a solution to the Liberal Party's longterm problems.

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He's pretty clearly arguing along the general lines of 'bubbles burst'.

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Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created...

No, it dates from the 1990s. Of course there were rurban ridings before then, but not the peculiar quartering of the cities.

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And if 40% = minority, it might just be a Canadian version of the "monkey in the middle" dilemma that plagues centrist parties (cf. Britains' Lib Dems)

You know, if the Canadian Liberals didn't have a (very) recent history as a party of power, I'd be tempted to write this all off as some kind of non-real Centre surge thing.

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The experience of Ireland would argue very strongly against the above.

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They only ever won Oshawa during the Cretin era Liberal sweeps of Ontario. Canada is a strange country when it comes to elections, but I think Comrade Earl has been spending too much time fussing over regional poll breakdowns

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No, nothing more than that. It's Canada remember

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I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.

Thing is, if the Liberals won the election and Trudeau became Prime Minister, then another Conservative majority government is exactly what you would end up with as soon said Trudeau government collapses amid inevitable hilarious incompetence.

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Riding polls...

Ahem. Here I am again...

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You should also be careful (very very careful) about regional breakdowns for the smaller provinces. They are often (usually?) howlingly inaccurate.

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The rurban seats were once the NDP's plan to pick up more seats, but it backfired and ended up hurting them.

The distinctive quartering rurban seats that have caused such dismay over the past decade were actually a Liberal plan originally.

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Quebec Nationalists got a bit complacent about the future and over time this led to self-indulgence and (provincially rather than federally: the BQ was just Duceppe plus fifty or so nonentities) factional strife, and the electorate got bored of it and them. They'll be back in some form at some point, but probably only after new faces take over.

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Oh but they'll try. They'll try.

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Well I think we can now be pretty sure that This Government Is In Trouble. Which is not the same as saying that it is doomed, alas.

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Atlantic and Prairie subsamples are always questionable because they are so small (and in places that are politically diverse; not a good combo).

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Tactical voting does absolutely exist, but it's all a bit weirder than that. I don't think anyone really understands exactly how it happens or works or fails to work.