If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016?

[milhouse24]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-special-elections-really-arent-special-predictors-for-midterm-elections/2014/03/12/969b6c54-aa23-11e3-9e82-8064fcd31b5b_story.html

So, at least according to Dana Milbank, the Democrats were likely to lose big in the 2014 midterm elections anyways, regardless of the outcome in the Florida special election.  Despite the better known democratic candidate Sink, who also spent millions more, in the losing effort.  Should the Democrats in congress just roll-over in 2014 and not waste the money in a losing effort?  Would Nate Silver say that in almost every mid-term election, the opposing presidential party always wins? 

In 2006, the Democrats swept into power in Congress (for an impressive 4 year window), and the momentum helped elect Obama in 2008. 

Now would Republican wins in 2014, give momentum to the Republican presidential candidate for a victory in 2016?

Of course, it will depend on the "personality" of the Republican candidate, and the "personality" of the Democrat candidate to determine the outcome presidential election.  But the political climate might favor the Republicans, at least on the political issues, such as repealing Obamacare. 

[milhouse24]

Yep.  That Tea Party landslide in 2010 was a harbinger of the huge Romney victory in 2012.

Well, Obama was the first president to actually "LOSE MORE VOTERS" in his re-election win. 

[milhouse24]

Yep.  That Tea Party landslide in 2010 was a harbinger of the huge Romney victory in 2012.

Well, Obama was the first president to actually "LOSE MORE VOTERS" in his re-election win. 

I forgot FDR wasn't reelected in 1940. Anyway, no, this year has little bearing on 2016 IMO. 2 years is an eternity in politics. 1994 GOP revolution didn't allow a win in 1996, after all.

You do realize that there is a difference with open elections, 2nd term re-elections, and 3rd term re-elections, and 4 term re-elections.  

Sure HRC has some momentum (from the media for a historic story).  But at the same time, are their political issues that voters care about?  Would Obamacare drag down HRC, instead of helping her?  Should Gore have won if Clinton was never impeached or never had an affair?  There are many issues or scandals that could hurt the incumbent Democrats or help them.

[milhouse24]

No. 2010 (and probably 2014) were big GOP wins because the Democratic coalition does not turn out in midterms/off years.

In addition, Hillary is a stronger candidate than any of the GOP presidential candidates could ever hope to be.

The two are not correlated at all, anymore than 2010 signaled a Romney landslide, or 1994 signaled a Dole landslide.

Umm, didn't 2006 signal the Obama landslide in 2008   It certainly gave the Democrats a lot of momentum heading into 2008. 

Hillary certainly has a lot of popularity, and it could be enough to beat any unpopularity with political issues like Obamacare. 

But a generic no-name Democrat like O'Malley, could have a far more difficult time if issues like Obamacare remain unpopular; and Obama's popularity remains below 40%. 

I don't know why "young people and minorities" don't turn out in mid-terms, maybe they just don't care about voting or politics unless there is a cool, handsome bi-racial handsome man running for president.  They didn't really come out for Gore or Kerry, who is to say they will come out for Hillary

[milhouse24]

If you believe in the "Keys to the White House" model, then "Party Mandate" is one of the 13 keys, but that one is if the incumbent party gains seats in the House in the midterms. The Senate is different because only 1/3 are up, and this year is a particularly bad one for the dems with so many red state seats to defend. In 2016 the shoe will be on the other foot with blue state GOPers defending.

So in short, no the 2016 Senate race isn't all that indicative.

I think Liberals and Democrats are really deluding themselves at how unpopular Obamacare is across the country.  Some polls have Obamacare at 35% popularity, and Obama is at 41% approval in the NBC/WSJ poll.  

While I personally perceive Obama as being very likeable and having a likeable personality, I am very surprised at how badly his administration and policies are viewed across the country.  

If Mitt Romney were more sensitive to the unemployed and blue collar workers, he would have done much better and the election would have been far closer.  Obama and the Democrats are very vulnerable now.  Perhaps not on the surface with his smiling appearance, but there is a silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Obamacare and other things.  

I think Hillary or O'Malley will have a very difficult time winning in 2016.  It will be much closer despite demographic shifts favoring hispanic voters.  The anti-Obamacare sentiment is slowly building, and while its not as strong as the anti-Iraq movement in 2006-2008, it may be enough to push the Democrats out of the white house.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular. 
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice? 

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular. 

http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-january-2014/

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http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/brian-schweitzer-obamacare-102204.html

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Why didn't Republicans show up to vote in the Special Senate elections in Mass and NJ?

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Are you just trolling here or?

Hahaha, you quoted schweitzer, someone who is not even in office at any level.  If he was in the senate, I would take schweitzer seriously, but he has as much power now as Arnold Kennedy-Schwartzenegger.  

This is Obama and Sebilus exact solution to Obamacare --->  Delay mandates and handout waivers until 2016

Now isn't it kinda weird that Obama is letting people and SB's delay the mandate.  Could he be delaying the mandate because it helps Democrats in the elections.  

The Obamacare deadline is this month ---> so Citizens who feel the pain of the higher premiums will be upset and vote against Democrats in November 2014 and November 2016

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 
Again, Obamacare wasn't implemented until March 2014, so there is still more time for people to get angry at paying higher premiums.  You don't seem to understand or comprehend that people get mad when they have to pay more for insurance (than the cheaper plan they had before). 

[milhouse24]

Yeah, Democrats won in 1988, Republicans in 1996.

Oh wait.

Yeah, Democrats won in 2006.

[milhouse24]

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 

"Obama is the only incumbent to lose votes, as long as you don't count that other president who lost vote and proves my claim wrong."

Hahaha, you mean the "dictator" FDR's 3rd term - that was eventually ruled unconstitutional Newsflash - Presidents are now only allowed 2 terms.  FDR became a dictator, plain and simple, and Americans rightfully voted for a constitutional amendment because of what FDR did.  I bet Democrats back then would have voted against the amendment for a 3rd term.

[milhouse24]

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

Correlation does not equal causation, for one thing. Secondly, the reasons why the GOP lost Congress in 2006 and the presidency in 2008 were not identical (2006 had much more to do with the Iraq quagmire, 2008 was much more about the financial collapse and Bush's deep unpopularity).

Hahaha, that is the entire point of the debate.  Is Obama's unpopularity (40% in some polls) and Obamacare's unpopularity going to torpedo the midterms and possibly 2016? 

These are real political issues.  Obamacare is a real voter issue whether democrats want to admit it or not. 

[milhouse24]

If Obamacare is such an albatross, why do polls after polls have people want to keep it and improve on it? The anti-Obamacare sentiment is coming from people from the right, who will never vote for Democrats anyway.

Anyway barring any kind of scandal or massive screw up by Obama in the next two years, the Democrats are going to win the WH in 2016.

Just keep telling yourself Obamacare is popular.  
Besides, nothing is really being "fixed" in Obamacare - no Democrat has made suggestions on how to "actually fix Obamacare"

Here's a serious question: if Liberal voters and Democrat voters are so smart and so loyal to the Democrat Party, then how come the "Democrat voters" didn't show up in the special election in Florida ?

Sink is not as attractive as Obama, but wouldn't Democrat voters want to show their support for Obamacare and the Dem Party, instead of staying home and watching the Voice?  

Hillary is not going to win if stoners, hipsters, and minorities forget to vote.

I never said the law is popular, my point is if it is this huge albatross, why aren't people clamoring to repeal it? And Democrats always have issues in mid-term elections, their base(young, minorities, disenfranchised etc.) just don't show up for mid-term elections, while the GOP have an older, whiter base that is more likely to show up to the polls.

I mean how bad is your memory? We just saw this play out in 2010 and Obamacare proved to be a non-issue two years later. So why the hell would it be an issue in 2016, when the law has in place for well over 3 years now?

How can the Democrat Party claim they have the support of the People, when their own voters can't be bothered to show up to midterm elections?  Doesn't that strike you as non-committal to Congressional Democrats?  If I were a Democrat Senator I would be pissed that these young people and minorities aren't bothering to show up to vote. 

Obamacare is mandatory as of 2014, so citizens won't feel the pain of higher premiums until 2014.  If Obamacare is so popular, then why did Democrats lose so big in 2010

I think Obamacare contributed to Obama losing 4 million voters in 2010.  But also Romney ran a bad campaign, and Obama has a nicer smile and personality (he gets the young ladies and young men excited to vote for him).  Also, Black and Hispanic voters came out for Obama and not the other (white) democrats.  A drop in Black and Hispanic turnout would have hurt Obama significantly.

Obama lost votes in 2012 because he was an incumbent,  not because of Obamacare. If the GOP couldn't use Obamacare to win in 2012, then it isn't going to work in 2016. I mean we already have poll after poll showing that people are against repeal, and this just a few months after a terrible debut.

Hahaha, Obama is the ONLY incumbent to actually LOSE voters in a re-election victory.  (Not counting FDR's 3rd term).  You are admitting that Obama IS LESS POPULAR IN 2012 than in 2008. 

"Obama is the only incumbent to lose votes, as long as you don't count that other president who lost vote and proves my claim wrong."

Hahaha, you mean the "dictator" FDR's 3rd term -

The fact that you're an idiot and think that the fact that being Democratically elected more than twice makes you a dictator doesn't change the fact that you were dead wrong about Obama being the first incumbent to lose votes

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It was never "ruled unconstitutional". The law changed after FDR died.

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I had no idea man you just blew my mind

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Again, even if your idiotic claims were true, they mean nothing to this debate

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Good. Term limits are worthless

Hahaha, at least you are proud to admit both Obama and FDR lost popularity in their re-elections.  But Obama was the first president to lose voters in his 2nd term re-election (something to be proud of).  I concede to you, Obama is less popular now than he was when elected in 2008.  Congratulations!!!  You must be so proud.

Hahaha, think about, FDR did something so wrong, that every American decided we needed to make a Constitutional Amendment against it. 

As for Obamacare, the next president can decide to extend the waivers past 2016.  I'm sure other HC regulations can be amended as well (medical device tax, etc.).  Even the HC penalty may be reduced or eliminated.  Laws change all the time.  It will depend on the makeup of the Congress.

[milhouse24]

The seat had been Republican for a long time.

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Stoners?

But Obama won the district easily.  So there is a disconnect between Obama's popularity, and the Democrat Party popularity.  Voters seem to like Obama, but don't seem to like or bother to vote for other (white) democrats.  I don't know what the answer is other than having more Non-white Democrats as candidates, which would theoretically drive up the democrat voters. 

"Stoners" are people who prefer marijuana-legalization, amongst other things.  Maybe they forgot to vote or had the wrong date - its always the 3rd thursday in november. 

[milhouse24]

The fact that you're an idiot and think that the fact that being Democratically elected more than twice makes you a dictator doesn't change the fact that you were dead wrong about Obama being the first incumbent to lose votes

Good. Term limits are worthless

Hahaha, I don't know if its just sad that you think this.  You do realize that dictators like Putin , Saddam Hussein, and Chavez all have "democratic elections" that they all someone won easily. 

At least you are proud to admit you are "pro-dictator" 

Congratulations to closet fascism.

[milhouse24]

Not if 2014 is the new 1986.

The Democrats may well lose the Senate, but that's a feature of demographics.  The seats they have up are tough to defend, and 2 of them (WV and AR) are in the middle of major realignment that will, ultimately, put these states in the extreme GOP column.  2016 is a long way away.  The economy could still be on an upswing; even slow growth might point to the wisdom of a slow-but-steady growth policy.  The issues with Putin and Ukraine may well fade away to where they will only interest the talk show crowd.  Obamacare will go on, and the initial rollout problems may fade in memory as more people get signed up and benefit from it; problems with the WEBSITE are something much different than problems with the program itself.

If the bottom falls out of the economy, the GOP will win big, and expand the map in doing so.  If not, the GOP's main problem is its poor candidates.  The leading names are what leading Democratic Presidential hopefuls used to be; the latest rock star/flavor of the month, and not the most qualified candidate.  The problem that the GOP has is that their "best qualified" candidate may well be Jeb Bush.  This might be mitigated by Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate; it would obscure the "dynasty" issue; if Jeb were running against Biden or Schweitzer he'd have real problems.  But the guys seen as the likely GOP nominees are a combination of novices and quacks, with a few failed losers (Rick Perry) crashing the party. 

For the GOP to win in 2016, they need to airlift a candidate in and force that candidate on a party that is bent on the kind of purity that loses elections.  This is a party that finds Thad Cochran and Bob Bennett insufficiently conservative.  That's a problem.  The GOP can be a conservative party and elect a President, but there's a difference between being a responsible, yet flexible, conservative, and being a doctrinaire kook.

I agree that it will come down to "the Economy" as things usually do.  There is still enough time for the economy to sour or improve.  Obamacare is still a drag on economic growth.  Americans just don't like paying taxes for anything. 

I think anti-Obamacare can still be a strong issue to help GOTV for Republicans in 2016.  Especially if the economy doesn't grow.  If the economy does grow, then that helps HIllary. 

I'm trying to think if Hillary has a "ceiling on voters" - she took the unpopular side on issues of Iraq and Hillarycare.  But she might have moved on after being SoS.  She's got a awkward and sometimes confrontational style of speaking.  I think Hillary can get at least 62 million voters. 

I think Jeb's problem is that he doesn't have much personality but is seen as more competent and moderate.  There will still be lingering anger from code pinkers and anti-military industrial complex.  But at the same time "Fiscal conservatives" would want to repeal Obamacare, instead of rehashing Iraq war spending.  Dubya had a gregarious and friendly personality.  Most voters will vote for the friendlier personality.  The liberal media will be out for blood if Jeb is the nominee, but having a Hispanic VP could satisfy the liberal rage. 

But in a Hillary vs. Jeb matchup, it will come down to Ohio, which is a tossup in myopinion.