IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Free Bird]

This seat is subject to a single term; anyways. Mosley-braun, Fitzgerald, Obama, Kirk.

Only Alan Dixon was able to hold seat consecutively.

When Durbin retires, that seat will be in flux for Dems as well.

You're implying therefore that the mighty Duckworth will be defeated in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that it is a midterm, her chances on holding on will be small.

But, given the House gerrymandering of IL, there is Bustos and Quigley and Duckworth, but no shoes to fill after Rauner or Kirk, for statewide office.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Given that it is a midterm, her chances on holding on will be small.

But, given the House gerrymandering of IL, there is Bustos and Quigley and Duckworth, but no shoes to fill after Rauner or Kirk, for statewide office.

Not exactly true. Peter Roskam (R-IL6) could make an excellent Senate candidate. Adam Kinzinger, an Iraq veteran, could make a better one.

As for this race, Duckworth is an unproven candidate and ran behind President Obama in 2012 against the fatally-flawed Joe Walsh, a far easier opponent than Mitt Romney was for Obama. But Kirk is largely unproven as well. He defeated a corrupt opponent in 2010, barely, and right after the impeachment and removal of Gov. Rod Blagojevich, which cast a shadow on the state Democratic Party, not to mention that 2010 was a GOP wave year and right after the emergence of the Tea Party.

Kirk's approval numbers are going to take a hit. No way all the Suburban Dems who like him now are going to stick with him. He'll have to run the table downstate and in the collar counties while keeping the Democrat under 70% in Cook County. If Duckworth is the nominee, Kirk's path to victory includes tying her to state House Speaker Michael Madigan, whose approval ratings downstate are below those of Emperor Palpatine, and Blagojevich, for whom she once served in an appointed position. That'll keep downstate red if they buy it and possibly do the same with the collar counties. Remember that Pat Quinn only carried one county in 2014, Cook County. Illinois has 101 other counties, and a victorious Democrat probably needs to carry at least a couple more than just Cook. Some Democratic downstate counties that voted for Obama voted against Quinn by double-digit margins. Some of these were Democrats who don't like the state party, personified in "Boss Madigan", who's not known for caring about any of the 101 counties in Illinois that are not named "Cook".

I'm not sure about anyone else's chances against Kirk. The big name that nobody's mentioned is Rep. Dan Lipinski, a moderate Democrat (who voted against the ACA) from the north suburbs. He may start out ahead.

Look for Rauner to consider putting money in this race. Kirk has a very Rauner-esque ideological profile.

Bottom line: Kirk needs a Republican win at the top of the ticket by at least 2-3% (nationally) and to run an A+ campaign (or have his general election opponent flounder) in order to keep this seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also; being behind Leader McConell who blocked Loretta Lynch, wasnt the smartest move by Kirk, which lasted too long.

Given Obama and the race barrier in IL, which galvanized blacks against Kirk; unlike last time against Ginnoulias.

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

Funnily enough, this race would be easily winnable for Kirk in a midterm year and he would be considered the favorite (Tilt R/Leans R). Illinois is not New York. It's the fact that 2016 will be a Presidential year that is hurting Kirk.

Please name for me the last election in which a Senate election in Illinois was considered "easily winnable" for the Republicans.

Or a Presidential.

Or a Gubernatorial, which you would have to go back to Jim Edgar for.

Illinois is apparently the new fools gold as the GOP gets cocky about Rauner's victory.

[moderatevoter]

Durbin endorses Duckworth.

[ElectionsGuy]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

Funnily enough, this race would be easily winnable for Kirk in a midterm year and he would be considered the favorite (Tilt R/Leans R). Illinois is not New York. It's the fact that 2016 will be a Presidential year that is hurting Kirk.

Please name for me the last election in which a Senate election in Illinois was considered "easily winnable" for the Republicans.

Or a Presidential.

Or a Gubernatorial, which you would have to go back to Jim Edgar for.

Illinois is apparently the new fools gold as the GOP gets cocky about Rauner's victory.

I agree. It took an incumbent governor with mid-30's approval and a wave year for Rauner to win. An open seat and a wave year for Kirk to win. If it isn't a wave year for Republicans in 2016, they're already at a big disadvantage in the state.

[Miles]

^ If there was one "mad as hell, can't take it anymore" state last year, it was IL.

Durbin's performance was very close to the overall statewide average. Even then, Republicans carried all the collar counties but Lake and still lost by over 10%.

[Free Bird]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Why hasn't there been any meaningful polling on this race yet?!

[Türkisblau]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Did you really think he'd endorse a Republican?

...

[Miles]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Kirk campaigned for Oberweis, after he initially said he wouldn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why hasn't there been any meaningful polling on this race yet?!

Well we know; Kirk and Rauner duo performed pretty well in his home district and Lake county; and in presidential years the county flips towards the Dems, with a Schneider, not Dold win, propels Duckworth to victory.

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

Funnily enough, this race would be easily winnable for Kirk in a midterm year and he would be considered the favorite (Tilt R/Leans R). Illinois is not New York. It's the fact that 2016 will be a Presidential year that is hurting Kirk.

Please name for me the last election in which a Senate election in Illinois was considered "easily winnable" for the Republicans.

Or a Presidential.

Or a Gubernatorial, which you would have to go back to Jim Edgar for.

Illinois is apparently the new fools gold as the GOP gets cocky about Rauner's victory.

Exaggerated a bit there; it may not be easily winnable but Kirk would still be the favorite if the election was held in a midterm year. I'm convinced of that. Like I said before, Illinois may be a blue state, but it is not as unwinnable for Republicans as NY, CA and yes, even MI. Dick Durbin ran as a popular incumbent Democrat in 2014 and still underperformed by quite a bit. Jim Oberweis didn't even run a campaign and still won 4 of the 5 collar counties around Chicago.

Further confirming the delusion over the meaning of ILGOP's circus victory in 2014.

Yes, Michigan is more winnable for Republicans than Illinois is. Yes, Peters did very well. Yes, so did Snyder. No, 2014 isn't the end-all-be-all anyway, so who cares...

[Free Bird]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Did you really think he'd endorse a Rpeublican?

...

No, but you'd think that he'd at least stay neutral

[moderatevoter]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Did you really think he'd endorse a Rpeublican?

...

No, but you'd think that he'd at least stay neutral

Why would he do that? He's the Senate Minority Whip. He wants a bigger caucus.

While Kirk and him might have a good working relationship, I'm sure Durbin would prefer to work with Tammy Duckworth.

[Miles]

Schakowsky for Krishnamoorthi to succeed Duckworth in CD8.

[Mr. Illini]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Did you really think he'd endorse a Rpeublican?

...

No, but you'd think that he'd at least stay neutral

You can be friends with people on the other side of the aisle while still endorsing their opponent. Especially if you're friends with their opponent as well, and she is on your side.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Kirk endorsed and campaigned for Oberweis last year, why wouldn't Durbin do the same with Kirk's opponent, especially when Kirk's opponent has an exponentially higher chance of winning than Oberweis?

[Ebsy]

It's only in this modern era that people take personal affront when politicians of the other party campaign for, you know, people of their party, and then that somehow means that after the election is over, both sides can't come together and have a working relationship.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And it's not as if this is the only case of this happening - Harry Reid and Dean Heller have a good working relationship but still campaign against each other. Same goes for Mark Begich and Lisa Murkowski before Begich lost last year (Begich touted his relationship with Murkowski in his ads, yes, but then Murkowski came out and said she was endorsing Sullivan).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state legislature is as unpopular as Quinn. But, Mike Madigan and Dems run Springfield, and wont put congressional term limits on ballot for Kirk.

Which would be his second term anyways. So, Tammy Duckworth has steared clear of the chaos and Durbin, and has a slight lead.

By the way, it wouldnt bind Kirk, because federal official, but IL GOP has already endorsed it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Mark Kirk to Donald Trump: Shut up

[MT Treasurer]

Mark Kirk: Obama wants to get nukes to Iran; deal is "the greatest appeasement since Chamberlain gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler" and will create a nuclear war

[windjammer]

Mark Kirk: Obama wants to get nukes to Iran; deal is "the greatest appeasement since Chamberlain gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler" and will create a nuclear war

Windjammer to Mark Kirk: Shut up!