The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Likely Voter]

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so what happens if they both want to run and neither has 'faded away'?  Paper Scissors Rock?

[Likely Voter]

I think Huntsman will run again. He is on a quest to bring the party back from the extreme. It wont work but give him points for trying.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that if Ryan runs again it wont be for a while. And Walker is now a bonafied conservative hero after crushing unions and surviving a recall. I can't see how he doesn't run.

Losing VP candidates have a poor history in getting nominations. The last losing VP candidate to win a nomination was Dole and it took him 3 tries...and he still lost the general. The election after Dole's had  Kemp (a hero of Ryan's) and Quayle who was actually a previous VP as well as a losing VP both get nowhere in 2000. And on the Dem side recent elections show Lieberman and Edwards perform poorly after losing for VP.

[Likely Voter]

What's the deal again with Paul's filing deadlines to keep his Senate seat? Isn't it sometime in Feb? I suspect Paul will run to get into the 2015 debates but he will drop out to keep his Senate seat.

But what if he wins IA and becomes the leading anti-Christie? Imagine if he were in the same situation as Santorum, with a mathematical chance but unlikely to win. Does he still drop out or stay in?

[Likely Voter]

Perry will decide in June on reelect, '16 later this year.

http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/19/perry-to-decide-on-presidential-bid-in-2013/

P16 on the Top 5's faiths. All but Walker are Catholic.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/religion-and-republican-front-runners.html

I think being evangelical is going to give Walker (and possibly McDonnell) an advantage. The christian conservative wing can back a Catholic like Santorum if given no other choices, but they would prefer one of their own. Especially a seemingly successful governor as opposed to a losing Senate candidate.

[Likely Voter]

oops... After all the hubbub about McDonnell's masters thesis from Pat Robertson's Regent University I assumed he was evangelical...my mistake.

So then, more good news for Walker

[Likely Voter]

Immigration hawks turn to Jindal. I doubt he hammers them on this, just lets it blow up on the tarmac and say "I was always against it."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/immigration-hawks-turn-their-lonely-eyes-bobby-jindal_708737.html

I've been saying that with so many GOP 2016ers jumping on the comprehensive immigration bandwagon (semantics aside), someone has to emerge to try and grab the support of the nativist wing. Romney did it. They are just begging for someone to pander to them.

[Likely Voter]

If Perry wants to run for reelection as gov he should probably STFU about running for prez. No one wants to hear that their gov is looking to leave office in two years and polling shows Texans dont want him to run for prez.

not that he has a chance to be nominated for prez anyway

[Likely Voter]

WSJ says Christie, Paul and Ryan have improved their standing in the shutdown.

Improved their standing with establishment GOP, but Cruz has helped himself with primary (and especially caucus) voters.

[Likely Voter]

WSJ says Christie, Paul and Ryan have improved their standing in the shutdown.

Improved their standing with establishment GOP, but Cruz has helped himself with primary (and especially caucus) voters.

That's arguable.  I think GOP primary voters have shown a significant deference to electability in the past two cycles, and Ted Cruz is not electable.  Now, it's my belief that in light of the McCain and Romney losses their will be a strong push for a more principled conservative to generate excitement, but Cruz would have to compete with other candidates just as principled but much more electable than he.

In 2008 and 2012 McCain and Romney won because of too many from the conservative wing splitting the vote.  2016 may end up the same, but if a consensus conservative candidate emerges early on, then they could win. 

That being said, I don't think Cruz could go all the way. He is sure to self-immolate at some point.

[Likely Voter]

This morning on ABC Howard Dean said if Hillary runs he would not challenge her in the primary and would in fact support her.

[Likely Voter]

I think Rick Perry knows he is the perfect GOP candidate. Good-looking conservative evangelical white male governor from southern state with low unemployment a business-friendly reputation and a history of standing up to Obama and the Fed gov. That is why the second he announced in 2012 he was the front-runner, even though it was the same weekend that Bachmann won the IA straw poll. And he also knows that the GOP usually nominates someone on their second attempt. So in theory he is set to win.

As for that whole national joke for seeming like an idiot thing, he has that sorted...with new hipster glasses!
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115185/rick-perrys-glasses-make-him-look-smarter

...problem solved!

[Likely Voter]

Speaking of Perry (and in case you had any doubt he was running), here he is visiting an gunmaker in Iowa this week



Smart, sophisticated, heavily armed...Rick Perry 2016!

[Likely Voter]

Walker went on to say that "ideally the nominee should be a governor, probably of a mid-westerns state, and ideally one that has a reputation for great cheese, as all Americans love great cheese"

/snark

[Likely Voter]

Santorum definitely is an undeclared candidate. The CW on Rubio has gone from undeclared to unlikely in the last few months, but who knows what 2014 will bring.

Speaking of trips to IA, it would be interesting to see a summary of which candidates actually did trips to IA, NH, SC this year (and how many).

[Likely Voter]

Mike Pence (R-IN) was on Daily Rundown and when asked if he might run for prez in 2016 he said he was "committed to make sure that Indiana continues to grow" and then went on to tout all of his accomplishments in Indiana, when pressed he would not rule out a prez run

http://www.msnbc.com/the-daily-rundown/watch/pence-climate-change-not-a-resolved-issue-163507267685

[Likely Voter]

Jindal goes on Baier to continue on his RGA presser rant against Obama.

Jindal took big advantage of Christie's non-appearance at media events while the govs were in DC. As vice-chair of the RGA he is now the defacto public face of the RGA and whenever he was in front of a mic he was throwing red meat to the base to get some notice.

[Likely Voter]

Apparently The Lord has spoken to him....

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[Likely Voter]

Interview with Mike Pence:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/08/22/indiana-gov-mike-pence-on-iraq-immigration-and-2016/

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Continue to believe that he will run and do well, the "more convinced than ever" thing is interesting. I wonder if he has been getting behind the scenes support from some establishment types.

[Likely Voter]

With the few interactions Bush has had with politics in the last couple of years it is hard for him to come away thinking he will be able to campaign "joyfully" which was his precondition. He is seeing that today's GOP primary electorate are not very 'joyful' people

[Likely Voter]

Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz are scheduled to attend Steve King's "Iowa Freedom Summit" in January

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/18/steve-king-to-host-iowa-freedom-summit-in-january/

Wonder if any of them will have formed an exploratory by then.

[Likely Voter]

Hillary is expected to announce in January.

So early? Can't everyone wait until April at least?

Well I imagine she wants to raise some money in Q1 and clear the field, however one would hope she would at least wait until a couple weeks after Obama's state of the union.

Once Hillary announces, she becomes the defacto leader of the Democratic party (at least until she gets a serious challenger).

[Likely Voter]

With the GOP race so open a lot are thinking "why not me?" hence Pataki, Fiorina, Graham, even Quayle. I suspect more. 2015 is going to be a great year for GOP political consultants, pollsters etc.