GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Crumpets]

I'm heartened by the fact that the vote has been both disproportionately old and disproportionately Democratic so far. It implies that there is still a large amount of (presumably Democratic-leaning) young people left to vote and the Dems aren't just cannibalizing their election day vote like they did in November.

[Crumpets]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

[Crumpets]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

[Crumpets]

Hmmm...

https://i.imgur.com/icC1G6d.png

That's quite a gender gap.  If Ossoff can fire up the high energy old Georgia women, and the men stay home, then we might actually have a shot!

Careful, though.  We saw last fall that the early vote was coming in ~56% female in many states.  That didn't hold.

It did in this district, though. The polling and early results failed to take into account the walloping the Democrats got in rural areas, but they predicted the urban swings pretty accurately.

[Crumpets]

If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.

Yeah. My Congresswoman (Jayapal) didn't live in my district either, but nobody really cares because she did going by the old boundaries, still lives reasonably close, promised to move after the election, and the fact that nobody really notices a cultural distinction just by crossing Madison St where the congressional line is. We trust her to represent us. I'm guessing there are similar dynamics in metro Atlanta.

[Crumpets]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

I know the typical adage is that bad weather hurts Democrats, but when the Republicans are expected to win the election day vote handily, might bad weather and low election-day turnout be good for them? Looking back on the election in 2016, the weather was pretty good across the country, and election day voting was strong, but only served to help the Republicans.

[Crumpets]

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are expected to be cast in total?

[Crumpets]

Hope he loses just to see Dems sh*t themselves.

Well, he's going to get the most votes tonight regardless, so your wish won't be granted just yet.

[Crumpets]

This is some painful stuff from Handel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgcDMYC27JM

So, seeing as Ossoff is presumably "Johnny" in this metaphor, Handel must be the Devil?

[Crumpets]

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

Republicans know what they're doing.  They know how to win.  When will Democrats start being as mean and ruthless as they are?

"The unhinged right is endorsing crashing planes into NY liberals. When will it stop? It won't if George Bush wins reelection. These same terrorists all support George Bush, and if he wins, they win. Stop them. Stop them now. Stop George Bush. Stop Denny Hastert. Vote John Kerry."

[Crumpets]

Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

This will backfire.  Holy sht.

Also, let's stop trusting decimals in polls.

Not with their target audience. The shooter was a man but all the faces in the ad are women. It's a smartly targeted ad tapping into GOP misogyny. Those who normally might sit this out but will come to oppose the likes of Pelosi. Very smart.

That's a really good point.