Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Wiz in Wis]

Tuesday 24 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

All hands... steady as she goes.

[Wiz in Wis]

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?

Neither... its July

[Wiz in Wis]

5+ point leads in both tracking polls...

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

[Wiz in Wis]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

McCain isn't in the lead... just sayin

[Wiz in Wis]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Midweek = Wednesday Right?

[Wiz in Wis]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

So far, no indication of weakening, but Monday might just have been less damaging than Friday... Right?

[Wiz in Wis]

Surprised the Republicans haven't jumped on this one quicker...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
McCain 46 (+1)
Obama 44 (-1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
Hard to tell yet, and it'll get muddled up in convention noise, but there may have been a negative bounce from the Biden pick.  damn nomo types...

I don't think Biden hurt, but it didn't help, nationally.

There should be a convention bounce by this time next week.  If there isn't, Obama has a problem.

Agreed, but at the same time, none of this sample is even from the convention... the Monday numbers were undoubtedly called before Michelle or even Kennedy's speeches... We'll see though

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

The race has undoubtedly tightened, but only a few points. Obama never lead by more than an average of 5 or so, so being tied is not a collapse so much as a minor regression. I'll be more worried when Obama starts losing in blue states.

[Wiz in Wis]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sam, I'm sure you've already discussed this elsewhere, but how do you see the GOP essentially stepping on the Dem's convention working out?

EDIT:

In terms of the bounce and polling, of course.

Am I the only one who thinks naming his VP now, the Friday before Labor day, when people are on vacation, you arent going to get the same response you would have any other time.

Not that McCain had a choice, but circumstances seem to be screwing him (see: Gustav, Hurricane).

[Wiz in Wis]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

So he got a three to six point bounce. Not bad for McCain.

And, it's the weekend, probably a bit inflated for Obama in this poll.  Palin still isn't completely in the mix, but it looks like it is favorable.

Considering the day that was dropped saw a 5 point shift to Obama, only losing 2 is not exactly terrible

[Wiz in Wis]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

It's the hurricane. Republicans aren't home to answer the phones.

In a national poll... there arent that many republicans in the gulf states... remember, even at their max, their only 60% of four states... not exactly a big deal.

Still, 2pt shift is small enough to just be an artifact of Labor day polling

[Wiz in Wis]

give it a few days... though it is instructive that both Ras and Gallup show little movement, buy this time last week Obama had gained 5 points in the spread.

[Wiz in Wis]

The scales have tipped in our favor. If I were to use a baseball analogy, we just scored a touchdown in the 7th inning.

How do you score touchdowns in baseball?

You make a basket... duh!

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

Actually, according to the data, the best night in weeks actually dropped off today, given the largest shift (3 points) was September 15

[Wiz in Wis]

Things should be tied by Friday.

Is this from the bureau of statistics fomented in your butt?

[Wiz in Wis]

Interesting... Dkos, Battleground and Rasmussen all move towards Obama, Hotline and Gallup to McCain...

Of course, today's state polling is all Obama so far.

[Wiz in Wis]

Bleh

Plenty of time left... Plenty.

[Wiz in Wis]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

Very disappointing.

lol? I'll take it.

I'll take it, but I had hoped he would build on his lead, at least a little bit.

Statistical noise is also a possibility... considering that every other tracker moved Obama's way today, and on other days they have each retreated, this is not surprising.

[Wiz in Wis]

"you havin poll problems, I feel bad for you son, I got 99 problems but Gallup Trackin aint one"

[Wiz in Wis]

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Wiz in Wis]

Thursday, October 9
Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 41 (nc)

Delicious

[Wiz in Wis]

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

ZOMG Obama's slipping again by not leading by 10!!!!!!11!!1eleventy

[Wiz in Wis]

Awesome.

With numbers like this, he almost has to take a fall tomorrow though.

agreed, though I think its just as likely that he picks up a point or two in Rass, so it will probably be a wash. Interesting that all the trackers post between a 1-11 point Obama lead. Some spread there.