Could Muslim voters in swing states cost Biden the election?

[Obama24]

Consider that Wisconsin has a Muslim population of around 70,000.

Michigan has almost 250,000 Muslims.

Between 150,000 and 200,00 Muslims live in Philidelphia.

Could Muslims staying home rather than voting for Biden in those states/locales, in turn, swing the overall election - similar to how WWC voters in those states swung the election in 2016?

Consider that Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just 10,704 votes

Trump won PA in 2016 by 44,000 votes
 
Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22,000 votes.
 
Essentially roughly 72,000 people across three states determined the election in 2016.

Given the numbers of Muslims in these important states, could Trump pull off a similar victory if Muslims decide to either vote for Trump, stay home, or vote for a third party candidate as a response to Biden’s support for Israel?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Short answer: Yes.

By not turning out or voting third party.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

Combine them with the college progressives and that'll increase their impact.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

Yes but given Florida was decided in 2000 by less than 1000 votes, every vote matters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

Yes but given Florida was decided in 2000 by less than 1000 votes, every vote matters.

But there's a variety of reasons you could argue someone loses any close state. In 2020 for instance Trump lost GA because of a combination of Atlanta growth, higher black turnout, Dem gains in amny smaller cities, Biden flipping many suburban voters, particularly those with college attainment, failure to make notable gains with black voters, and so on. No single thing caused him to lose the state - it was the sum of all these factors.

[wnwnwn]

Yes, if it´s a close election

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

Yes but given Florida was decided in 2000 by less than 1000 votes, every vote matters.

But there's a variety of reasons you could argue someone loses any close state. In 2020 for instance Trump lost GA because of a combination of Atlanta growth, higher black turnout, Dem gains in amny smaller cities, Biden flipping many suburban voters, particularly those with college attainment, failure to make notable gains with black voters, and so on. No single thing caused him to lose the state - it was the sum of all these factors.

Well it's not just muslim people who have voting rights, so obviously but that applies to everything. It is always a sum of factors.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not on their own. Their impact is vastly overestimated. Not every single one of those Muslims voted in 2020 and Biden’s not going to go from 100% to 0% with that group.

Combine them with the college progressives and that'll increase their impact.

I think a lot of college progressives will come home to Biden in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, because they aren't rich like whites are. This Arab keeps talking about how unfair Trump tax cuts are. MI is coming back to Biden Zogby has Biden ahead MI and PA 49/45

[SnowLabrador]

They could, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will.

[Vern]

It just depends on how close them states end up being, if Biden loses them.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Might give you an idea of what to expect...

And in the UK Labour actually isn't the incumbent party associated the most with government support for Gaza. While Labour in the overall picture is doing well, and that isn't really the case for Joe Biden's election chances.

In the UK, in a lot of ways a vote for the greens or indies would also be seen as a wasted vote, and we've seen with Galloway's victory also already that muslim voters are increasingly looking for alternatives. Of course, more muslims / arab-americans live in UK than USA. But it's going to play a role.

[Obama24]

Might give you an idea of what to expect...

And in the UK Labour actually isn't the incumbent party associated the most with government support for Gaza. While Labour in the overall picture is doing well, and that isn't really the case for Joe Biden's election chances.

In the UK, in a lot of ways a vote for the greens or indies would also be seen as a wasted vote, and we've seen with Galloway's victory also already that muslim voters are increasingly looking for alternatives. Of course, more muslims / arab-americans live in UK than USA. But it's going to play a role.

I'm not really familiar with European politics, can you in a sense translate the various parties listed in your chart to the Dems and Pubs here?

And by the way, why is Lady Liberty being arrested in your signature?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Might give you an idea of what to expect...

And in the UK Labour actually isn't the incumbent party associated the most with government support for Gaza. While Labour in the overall picture is doing well, and that isn't really the case for Joe Biden's election chances.

In the UK, in a lot of ways a vote for the greens or indies would also be seen as a wasted vote, and we've seen with Galloway's victory also already that muslim voters are increasingly looking for alternatives. Of course, more muslims / arab-americans live in UK than USA. But it's going to play a role.

I'm not really familiar with European politics, can you in a sense translate the various parties listed in your chart to the Dems and Pubs here?

And by the way, why is Lady Liberty being arrested in your signature?

LAB = Labor
GRN = Green
CON = conservative
LD = liberal democrat
IND = independent

Regarding the Lady Liberty

The entire world condemns the Biden's administration response to these protests... except for atlas.

Laughable for a so-called democracy since the right to protest (which is a constitutional right!!! in your country) is essential in a democracy.

When there is no longer a right to protest, there's no democracy... And no it's not trump's fault this time that your democratic rights are at stake.

see: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=591279.0

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

If it's close enough, sure, but we don't know how close it will be.

[holtridge]

Doubtful but not impossible if it is a close enough election.