Manchin probably won't switch parties. But let me just add that predicting the individual races is indeed difficult. Every race has its own dynamics. I for example think that Heitkamp could prove to be less vulnerable than Bill Nelson. She's in a state where a strong grassroots campaign can make the difference. Stabenow won't lose against a mediocre Republican candidate. She is beatable, but she must be beaten. I'm assuming that MI Republicans will finally find their Cory Gardner and PA Republicans will blow it. That's nothing but speculation of course. The only race I'm pretty confident about is Missouri. McCaskill is DOA, she is one of Clinton's biggest supporters in the Senate and unlike Donnelly or Manchin has shown no signs of moderation. The MO GOP is already preparing for this race and working hard to recruite establishment candidates like Ann Wagner. And no, the dirty tricks McCaskill used last time won't work again this time.
Who is Michigan Republicans' Cory Gardner? I'm not even sure Cory Gardner would be able to win in Michigan anyway. It's a substantially more Dem state than Colorado.
