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30-35.

*Cries*

The only good thjng about the Trump appointees is that they aren't Alito or Thomas.

Don't give him any advice.

Trump's campaign being over-confident and incompetent is necessary for Biden to have a chance.

Discuss your thoughts and opinions below.

That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

Exactly this (plus NV/AZ/GA too).

It would be possible for the EC advantage to shift back toward Trump again.

No it isn’t.

In 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump.

Not really. Most serious pundits thought Trump’s EC advantage would be significantly larger than it ended up being.

Remember that people thought Biden would win the PV by a lot more than he did in reality, whereas the eventual EC result was very close to the actual state-by-state breakdown that people expected.

I saw many predictions where Biden was winning the NPV by 7 or even 9 points but Biden was still under 300 EVs. If you’d told them Biden would only carry the PV by 4 points in the end, many of them would’ve taken that to spell certain doom for him.

The election results in places like MD, IL, NY, and especially CA were way closer than people thought they would be. Trump also outperformed expectations in safe red states, just not to the same extent. However the 2020 “red wave” didn’t really reach the swing states at all (aside from exceptions like WI), since Biden’s campaign did a good job of targeting the real battlegrounds.

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?

About two thirds I'd assume. They are ground zero of his crossover appeal.

It's not 2014 anymore though. And these are the types of voters who would recognize what an extra Republican number in the Senate means.

I mean, what share of Biden voters do you think Hogan will get? I personally think it will be between 15% (on a bad night) and 25% (on a great night). And voters who were republicans not so long ago are probably going to be voting for Hogan at far higher rates than the average Biden voter.

Oh by the way: Hogan backs codifying Roe v. Wade, calls himself ‘pro-choice’.
He's really trying to get that democratic crossover vote.

Regarding Hogan's latest abortion comments, it should be noted that his past actions do not support them (for example, as governor, he vetoed legislation expanding abortion access in Maryland, and he also didn't think codifying abortion rights in MD's state constitution was necessary). Thus, he can still be attacked on that front as a flip-flopper, and that he would probably "fall in line" with his party on this and other issues should he enter the Senate.

Yeah, Krystal Ball is definitely NOT alright and 100% harmful to democrats electoral prospects. At BEST she a useful idiot for the right. Like 95% of the time she spends criticizing Biden and democrats with the remaining 5% spend on Trump criticism.

"Left wing" youtubers convincing gullible young people that they should support "mainstream" democrats is a big problem for democrats. "Accelerationism" is the most idiotic idea ever.

Ipsos appears to be the new "it" pollster lol. This is Ipsos by itself, so we now have Reuters/Ipsos, ABC/Ipsos, NYT/Ipsos and just Ipsos.

Which is funny because Ipsos is french. I guess they are good at polling?

It is interesting (although unsurprising) that people with a foreign background are slightly more pro-independence than people from the rest of Spain. What I find really peculiar, even if probably driven by small sample sizes, is the other chart that says among people with a foreign background support for independence decreases with income, contrary to the trend in all other background categories where richer people are more supportive of independence.

One of the big Nationalist conspiracy/narrative that is spoken only in the lightest of dog whistles is that Spain encourages rich Latin Americans to invest, study and/or live in Barcelona (with the passport that comes quicker than other demographics remember) to eventually Hispanicize the region as a whole.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/justice-alito-upside-down-flag.html?smid=tw-share

After the 2020 presidential election, as some Trump supporters falsely claimed that President Biden had stolen the office, many of them displayed a startling symbol outside their homes, on their cars and in online posts: an upside-down American flag.

One of the homes flying an inverted flag during that time was the residence of Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., in Alexandria, Va., according to photographs and interviews with neighbors.

The upside-down flag was aloft on Jan. 17, 2021, the images showed. President Donald J. Trump’s supporters, including some brandishing the same symbol, had rioted at the Capitol a little over a week before. Mr. Biden’s inauguration was three days away. Alarmed neighbors snapped photographs, some of which were recently obtained by The New York Times. Word of the flag filtered back to the court, people who worked there said in interviews.