MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill is moderate.

She was not like Sherrod Brown who immediately said no to Gorsuch. She gave it thought.  I did disagree with her final decision on that issue ftr.

And she is not trying to pander at all. I think Missouri voters will respond well to that. Voters do not like pandering.

Sherrod Brown did not come out against Gorsuch immediately, at least not completely. He was one of the "undecideds" on filibustering him for quite a while.

[politicallefty]

I am willing to bet right now that McCaskill wins reelection, so long as Trump's approval ratings are in the low 40s or below. I think she and a number of other Senate Democrats are vastly underrated, especially in a Trump midterm.

[The Other Castro]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

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When Wagner jumps in its Lean R and barring an Akins style gaffe she wins by about 5 points.

[jamestroll]

Wagner seems to do better in polling compared to Hawley.

Still McCaskill is not in an impossible race by any means.

I did explain yesterday how Wagner's endorsement, unedorsement and re-endorsement of Trump will end up either being a huge blessing or huge curse for her I see no middle ground in this.

I also hope Democrats take opportunity in contesting the vacated seat. It is not an impossible district at all.

Also McCaskill's progressive punch grade is a D

[jamestroll]

Wagner seems to do better in polling compared to Hawley.

Do we know what Hawley's name recognition is like in comparison to Wagner?

Hawley is better known statewide but Wagner is not terribly far behind. She is not entirely anonymous outside the St. Louis metro.  Hawley just got off a statewide campaign but Wagner has been in office longer and the STL media market does dominate a large portion of the state. For someone who has not ran any ads last year Wagner's name ID is OKAY.

How the hell is Hawley going to explain this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_zzqEA9N2A

My sense is that this could potentially doom her during the primary, but if she survives the GOP primary mostly intact it it may assuage some suburban swing voters. What do you think?

Yea pretty much this. I know McCaskill's strategy for 2018 will be heavily rural based. Too early to count McCaskill out but if Wagner manages to win the GOP primary and Trump remains quite unpopular it could very well help her mitigate a Democratic wave.

I hope she knows she potentially leaves her house seat vulnerable in a strong Democratic year.

[MT Treasurer]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

Excellent news! While I have little doubt that Hawley could beat her as well, Wagner is from the right part of the state and a very strong candidate.

GOP recruitment in MO, IN, WV and FL is looking really good, but ND and MT aren't encouraging so far. Not sure about Mandel.

[jamestroll]

I AM IN LOVE WITH CLAIRE MCCASKILL.

I will faint if she loses.

[publicunofficial]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

Excellent news! While I have little doubt that Hawley could beat her as well, Wagner is from the right part of the state and a very strong candidate.

GOP recruitment in MO, IN, WV and FL is looking really good, but ND and MT aren't encouraging so far. Not sure about Mandel.

Are you assuming Rick Scott will get in?

[MT Treasurer]

Wagner plans to enter the race in July, and apparently has private polling showing her leading McCaskill.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR&mref=homepage-free

Excellent news! While I have little doubt that Hawley could beat her as well, Wagner is from the right part of the state and a very strong candidate.

GOP recruitment in MO, IN, WV and FL is looking really good, but ND and MT aren't encouraging so far. Not sure about Mandel.

Are you assuming Rick Scott will get in?

I'd be shocked if he declined to run. And tbh, he's the only one who could even put a fight against Nelson. Apparently some people think that Tim Fox will run against Tester (he's been campaigning for Pianoforte and has been more visible recently), but I'm not convinced yet. ND is shaping up to be a bloodbath for the GOP and it looks like there's also going to be a nasty primary in WI, IN and potentially WV.

[HAnnA MArin County]

She red baited so hard against Bernie and he almost won her state in the primary anyways. What a joke.

It's time to come out of the Dead Sea, jfern.

[The Other Castro]

Wagner team pushing back on reports that she'll enter in July. She is still likely to enter, but they're saying it'll be late July if it is in July, or potentially later in the cycle.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/will-wagner-announce-senate-bid-in-july-not-so-fast/article_21bc8700-4d59-5214-ae31-8a481ce742dc.html

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@MT Treasurer: oh God, I think she might actually win again after watching this last week unfold.

>One week automatically decides an election 18 months away.

[_]

@MT Treasurer: oh God, I think she might actually win again after watching this last week unfold.

>One week automatically decides an election 18 months away.

Key word is "might." He's been writing her off as an automatic pickup for months, and I think all of this news is certainly reason enough to think that her and Donnelly won't start off any worse than tossup.

I won't put them at tossup, and they've never been automatic, with Wagner in MO and Messer in IN its lean red for both, but if the perpetual scandal continues they can move to tossup.

[jamestroll]

I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

[The Other Castro]

I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

Wait wait wait what?

[jamestroll]

I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

Wait wait wait what?

umm. yea if McCaskill can manage to win next year I believe she would be an exceptionally strong candidate for President in 2020.

Look at her picture she looks like a president!

[Virginiá]

I predict Mccaskill will win next year and in 2020 win the presidency.

Wait wait wait what?

umm. yea if McCaskill can manage to win next year I believe she would be an exceptionally strong candidate for President in 2020.

Look at her picture she looks like a president!

Oh Jimmie

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I still wish Kander would be running in 2018 and not McCaskill. It's such a shame he lost last year

[Dr. Arch]

As attractive as he is, I would never vote for him.

[America Needs R'hllor]

As attractive as he is, I would never vote for him.

[VPH]

He can't win the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He can't win the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Hawley will be the nominee.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Austin's a great guy, he called me yesterday... he has a growing fanbase and I legitimately think that he could win the primaries and defeat McCaskill. People always underestimate libertarians in congress, for example Kentucky. Before 2010, the Kentucky senate went to either democrats, or republicans in close calls. Rand won in a landslide and was the nominee easily.

Not impossible in the primaries, but very very tough. He will most probably be up against some big power players with party backing and with state name recognition. I doubt he could win, but I could very well be wrong. Assuming he runs and wins the primaries, I think it would be a tossup vs McCaskill.