2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Sam Spade]

Don't really see Buck loses at this point, given what's out.  GOV is anyone's game.

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

[Torie]

I expected Handel to pull off a Haley-lite victory here to be honest.  Never expected her to dominate like Haley, but I expected the whole corrupt-DC-congressman vibe to lose to the mamma grizzly thing that Handel was running with.

Whatever, Barnes will have better contrasts to draw against Deal and I think he'll make a better governor anyhow

Well, I hope Barnes wins, after that execrable ad Deal ran. F him!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Which if so would benefit Kelliher, the DFL establishment candidate.

[Torie]

It looks to me that Buck will probably win. Too many precincts are out in Larimer which Buck is winning better than 60%, and Weld, which Buck is winning by 3-1 or something. Norton is winning by small margins in some other big counties, with a clear margin in Arapahoe (sp), but eye balling it, it does not look like enough. I would guess Buck will win by about 15,000 votes maybe (could be 20,000 really). I am not calling it yet, but the odds are about 85%-90% that Buck will win, is what it looks like to me. I can't call it because of the empty precinct phenomenon. Sometimes a lot of precincts don't generate that many votes, and sometimes they do.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee finally managed to back a candidate who won his primary (Deal).

[cinyc]

Fedele lost, but one of these things is not like the other:



He's also winning Fairfield County and CT-04 so far.

Top Ancestry or Race is the highest percentage of first-listed ancestry or Hispanic or Asian subgroup (which for some bizarre reasons aren't ancestries to the Census Bureau) or African-American, excluding "Other" in each town.

[Sam Spade]

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Which if so would benefit Kelliher, the DFL establishment candidate.

However, Dayton's been kicking her butt there so far.

[Sam Spade]

CO-Sen called for Buck.

I'm not staying up for CO-Gov or MN-Gov.  Nite.

[Lunar]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

[redcommander]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ughh. Guess I better get on the Bennett and Barnes band wagon then.

[tpfkaw]

CO-Sen called for Buck.

Yay! One less neocon creep in the Senate.

[Mr. Morden]

Haven't really been tracking Colorado for a while.  Are the vote counts there still increasing, or have the vote counters all called it a night?  Seems like the rate of increase of votes has slowed to a trickle.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Which if so would benefit Kelliher, the DFL establishment candidate.

However, Dayton's been kicking her butt there so far.

Dayton's running mate is from there.

But yeah that would make it good for him that much of it is still out.

[Lunar]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Reminds me of Lowden, really.   Someone picked out of the blue by the state party establishment, but never really had a credible case as to why, y'know, anyone should actually vote for her?

I've always been a huge fan of drawing contrasts.  Even artificial contrasts.  Me-tooism on the issues is lame.  If you're behind, come out with some anti-GOP positions, backed by polling and survey research, that grabs attention and plays to the demographics that you're trying to reach.  DO SOMETHING.  Nothing is more frustrating than 3-6 candidates in a tight race who can't find anything to disagree on.

If you agree on every single issue, well, turning the election into grassroots vs. the establishment is not gonna work for ya in this cycle.  So what are you doing?  What was the central Norton message against Buck? 

[redcommander]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Norton wasn't a fricken establishment puppet. Buck is the one who supports a pathway for citizenship for illegal aliens, pull out from Afghanistan, and increased spending. Whatever, as far as I'm concerned Republicans have shown they don't deserve to take back the senate by nominating Angle and Buck. The GOP also has a bigger problem in that Buck and most likely Deal winning will just contribute to Democrat attacks that the party is unwilling to nominate more female candidates. A record number of women were running for office this year, and a paltry if any increase has been shown in their nominations by Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well District 50 is almost all in and Chaudhary went down hard. He didn't even break 30% and got wiped out almost everywhere.

Also in District 12 Koering, the gay Republican is down 13 points with over 80% of precincts in.

[Vepres]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Norton wasn't a fricken establishment puppet. Buck is the one who supports a pathway for citizenship for illegal aliens, pull out from Afghanistan, and increased spending. Whatever, as far as I'm concerned Republicans have shown they don't deserve to take back the senate by nominating Angle and Buck. The GOP also has a bigger problem in that Buck and most likely Deal winning will just contribute to Democrat attacks that the party is unwilling to nominate more female candidates. A record number of women were running for office this year, and a paltry if any increase has been shown in their nominations by Republicans.

Buck is no Angle. He's been a DA for years, and comes off very moderate. He is endorsed by the Tea Party, but he has not had many great things to say of the Tea Party. Norton seemed to move far to the right during the primary, and knowing the state, I think she is less electable.

[Lunar]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Norton wasn't a fricken establishment puppet. Buck is the one who supports a pathway for citizenship for illegal aliens,

That has more to do with sanity..you can't deport12 million people out of the USA, and you can't ignore them.

pull out from Afghanistan,

She said this explicitly?  What's the quote?

  

and increased spending

She said this explicitly?  What's the quote?

[Vepres]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Norton wasn't a fricken establishment puppet. Buck is the one who supports a pathway for citizenship for illegal aliens,

That has more to do with sanity..you can't deport12 million people out of the USA, and you can't ignore them.

pull out from Afghanistan,

She said this explicitly?  What's the quote?

  

and increased spending

She said this explicitly?  What's the quote?

He said he doesn't want to have Afghanistan be an open commitment, though he doesn't support a public timetable.

On spending, he increased it as Weld County DA, but only because he was required to.

[cinyc]

MN Dem Gov Map (2770 precincts in):



Anderson Kelliher in Blue, Dayton in Green, M. Entenza in Red, P. Idusogie would be in yellow.  Gray= no data.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, MAK won Hennepin County pretty solidly.

[Mr. Morden]

MN Dem Gov Map (2770 precincts in):



Anderson Kelliher in Blue, Dayton in Green, M. Entenza in Red, P. Idusogie would be in yellow.  Gray= no data.

The AP has Kelliher winning Hennepin and Ramsey.  Is that a mistake?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually comparing the SoS site it looks like he just picked colors at random. The two he has going for Entenza voted over 50% for Dayton.

[cinyc]

MN Dem Gov Map (2770 precincts in):



Anderson Kelliher in Blue, Dayton in Green, M. Entenza in Red, P. Idusogie would be in yellow.  Gray= no data.

The AP has Kelliher winning Hennepin and Ramsey.  Is that a mistake?

I very quickly put that together.  I'll have to check for data integrity.

[Mr. Morden]

Kelliher's lead is down to ~4000 votes, or 1% of the vote.