2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Vepres]

Teller County's 31 precincts all came in at once just now. It gave slight boosts to Maes in the Gubernatorial race and Ament in the Treasurer's race.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, Dayton leads by a bit over 300 votes (and growing).

[xavier110]

I sort of didn't expect MAK to do this well, so good for her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll concede that Dayton is probably the stronger candidate, based on the demographics of the map.

[Vepres]

It looks to me like Maes is going to win. McInnis had only one thing going for him, Mesa County. In fact, looking at the counties, the vote totals look wrong. Maes should have a bigger margin, per my eye balling. Whatever.

The Republicans are concentrated in different areas. For instance, Mesa county has more total votes than Denver county. The high Republican population counties that Maes won were by close-ish margins, while McInnis is pulling in huge margins in most of the counties of his former district.

[cinyc]

It looks to me like Maes is going to win. McInnis had only one thing going for him, Mesa County. In fact, looking at the counties, the vote totals look wrong. Maes should have a bigger margin, per my eye balling. Whatever.

The Republicans are concentrated in different areas. For instance, Mesa county has more total votes than Denver county. The high Republican population counties that Maes won were by close-ish margins, while McInnis is pulling in huge margins in most of the counties of his former district.

So what's left is basically suburban Denver (Arapahoe, Boulder, Douglas, Jefferson) and Colorado Springs (El Paso), where Maes is winning, versus Pueblo, where McInnis is ahead?  And there are many more precincts out in the Maes counties than Pueblo?

Maes should have this.

[Sarnstrom]

The AP has called the race for Mark Dayton.

[cinyc]

The AP has called the race for Mark Dayton.

Maes has to be next.  He's pulling away.

[minionofmidas]

Man Nobles County is weird. Always is.

Entenza has over 50% there, what? He's not from anywhere near there, he's from St. Paul.

It probably just wants to be in Iowa.

Which just goes to show how weird it is.

[Tender Branson]

Red = Deal
Green = Handel
Grey = Tie

[Sam Spade]

There is a logic to the GA map, of sorts, actually.

As for MN, since they have the habit of electing the worst candidates possible, why am I not surprised - Dayton has always been a grade A idiot and so is Emmer.  ugh.

[Sam Spade]

Dayon is going to overtake her very shortly now. He's surging at this point. With 83% in he's behind by 2200 votes.

BRTD had it right 45 minutes ago. It was only a matter of time, assuming later Duluth matched earlier Duluth.

BRTD? ahem... 

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

[Tender Branson]

It´s time to check through my predictions:

My predictions:

GA Runoff

Deal: 54.8%
Handel: 45.2%

Actual: Deal 50.2%, Handel 49.8%

CT Governor & Senate

Foley: 36.7%
Fedele: 35.9%
Griebel: 27.4%

Actual: Foley 42%, Fedele 39%, Griebel 19%

Malloy: 50.2%
Lamont: 49.8%

Actual: Malloy 58%, Lamont 42%

McMahon: 51.1%
Simmons: 29.7%
Schiff: 19.2%

Actual: McMahon 49%, Simmons 28%, Schiff 23%

MN Governor (Democrats)

Dayton: 38.1%
Kelliher: 34.7%
Entenza: 25.8%
Idusogie: 1.4%

Actual: Dayton 41%, Kelliher 40%, Entenza 18%, Idusogie 1%

CO Governor & Senate

Maes: 51.4%
McInnis: 48.6%

Actual: Maes 51%, McInnis 49%

Bennet: 50.7%
Romanoff: 49.3%

Actual: Bennet 54%, Romanoff 46%

Norton: 51.9%
Buck: 48.1%

Actual: Buck 52%, Norton 48%

I´m happy, too bad Norton didn´t win, it would have been 8/8.

[minionofmidas]

Dayon is going to overtake her very shortly now. He's surging at this point. With 83% in he's behind by 2200 votes.

BRTD had it right 45 minutes ago. It was only a matter of time, assuming later Duluth matched earlier Duluth.

BRTD? ahem... 

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Everybody knows you're his sock account.

There is a logic to the GA map, of sorts, actually.

As for MN, since they have the habit of electing the worst candidates possible, why am I not surprised - Dayton has always been a grade A idiot and so is Emmer.  ugh.

I don't understand the far southwest (nor Catoosa). Otherwise, certainly so. Much as one would guess, actually.

[Vepres]

Final maps!

Colorado Republican Senate:



Blue is Buck
Green is Norton

Colorado Democratic Senate:



Red is Bennet
Green is Romanoff

Colorado Republican Governor:



Green is Maes
Blue is McInnis

Colorado Republican Treasurer:



Blue is Stapleton
Green is Ament

[Vepres]

Maes won, and by a large enough margin to avoid an automatic recount.

[Torie]

Just to note in passing from Campaign Spot,  Maes appears to be a kook. So in one night, two kooks got nominated for the GOP: Deal and Maes. Good job GOP!

"Scott McInnis and Dan Maes battled relentlessly in an exceptionally hard-fought contest to not be the GOP gubernatorial nominee, but in the end, Maes’s suggestion that a Denver bike program represented a United Nations plot — and willingness to go on MSNBC to discuss the idea before an incredulous anchor! — just wasn’t enough when matched up against McInnis’s admission that he used part of a judge’s work for a series of essays on water rights that the gubernatorial candidate published without crediting it, a mistake he called unacceptable and inexcusable, but also unintentional. (Initially blaming the staff was a nice touch.) As you probably guessed, Maes will be an underdog against the Democratic nominee, Denver mayor Hickenlooper."

[RI]

Some maps I uploaded (click to go to their page):

Georgia Republican Governor:


Minnesota Democratic Governor:


Minnesota Independece Governor:

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Re: Buck

I think everyone wins here.  Democrats win with a less palatable general election candidate, and Republicans win with someone who isn't an establishment puppet.

Norton wasn't a fricken establishment puppet. Buck is the one who supports a pathway for citizenship for illegal aliens,

That has more to do with sanity..you can't deport12 million people out of the USA, and you can't ignore them.

Subjective opinion. I think its insane to reward law breaking. The fact is you can through a varity of methods, you just don't want to.

[cinyc]

So I guess I owe you some updated Connecticut maps.  No results are in at all from Berlin or Union on both party primaries, Sherman in the Democratic primaries and Bethel in the Republican primaries.  New Haven is only about half in.  Bridgeport and a few other towns are also missing precincts.

All maps use the Atlas 100% color scale, with the first AP-listed candidate in blue, second green, third red, fourth yellow, etc. if necessary:

Starting with CT-Gov-D:


Malloy in blue, Lamont in Green.  Lamont loses almost everywhere.

Now, CT-Gov-R:



Foley in blue, Fedele in green, Griebel in red.  Foley wins much of the state, generally except some towns in Fairfield and New Haven counties, some of which have heavy Italian-American populations.  Griebel won a few towns in Northern Hartford County - is he from there?

Finally, CT-Sen-R:



A very clear pattern here.  Simmons (in red) wins his old CD, especially the easternmost portion, where he lives.  Simmons took over 70% of the vote in some SE Connecticut towns.  McMahon (in blue) wins the rest of the state, except Salisbury on the NY/Mass line, which went to Schiff (in green).  The island of gray in Simmons' sea of red, Griswold, was an exact tie.

More to come, including CT-CD-R maps and perhaps some turnout and thematic maps.

[cinyc]

There is a logic to the GA map, of sorts, actually.

Cities and suburbs vs. rural GA?

[tmthforu94]

In case anyone didn't know, Karen Handel has conceded from the race and will not be requesting a recount. She has also warmly endorsed Nathan Deal. I suppose it's for the good of the party, since Deal stated he wouldn't endorse her. It's all too bad.

[Bacon King]

Actually, what the Georgia gov map almost looks like at a glance is "McCain + Romney = Handel" and "Huckabee = Deal", with a couple obvious exceptions. Of course, don't read into this that Huckabee's endorsement meant anything at all, because it definitely didn't.

[cinyc]

The CT-CD Republican primaries.

CT-01:



CT-01 was a bloodbath.  Pending results from Berlin, Brickley (in blue) won 60-40, and took all towns save a few on the fringes of the oddly-shaped district.  Zydanowicz (in green) took Bristol by 17 votes and New Hartford by 2 votes.

CT-02:



Peckinpaugh (in red) racked up big margins in the western part of the district, especially Middlesex County.   Novak (in blue) was competitive everywhere else, but didn't win any county.  Dubitsky (in green) won 4 random towns, in all but Chaplin, not by much.  Windham was an exact tie.  Results from Union are missing.

CT-04:



Not much to say here.  Debicella (in blue) won big, taking every town but Wilton, which Merkle (in green) won handily, and Bridgeport, where Torres (in red) won - but practially nobody voted in the Republican primary.  

Note - according to the AP count, for some odd reason, there were about 10x more votes for CT-Gov-R in Bridgeport than CT-Sen-R or CT-04-R.  Must be a typo somewhere.

Finally, CT-05:



A true three-way race.  Caligiuri (in blue) won by racking up the vote in the New Haven County part of the district.  Bernier (in green) won much of the rest.  Greenberg (in red) took Danbury and did best in the five Fairfield County towns that have reported (Bethel is missing).

[redcommander]

Roy Barnes 2010!