2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The teabagger should have the edge based on that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

If Spade's theory as to what the Tea Party actually is happens to be accurate, then it makes a lot of sense.

And that theory is...?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

The GOP disagrees. For them, it's all about OMGZ teh socialsim  obama muslim pelosi kenya.

That's still an "issue" (note the scare quotes). Some of the incumbents who lost were defeated because they were perceived as too close to Obama/the Democrats--even though only delusional crazies would see Bob Inglis that way. (Others, like Cannon, did lose on an issue; in his case, not hating Hispanics enough.)

Cannon lost in 2008. You might be thinking of Bennet, who lost on the same "issues" that Inglis did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was going to do a Minnesota megathread but realized it wouldn't be very interesting, just lots of incumbent vs. joke or two essentially identical candidates races.

Two State Senate seats worth looking at though are 50 and 67. 50 has the embattled DFL incumbent with some revealed ethical issues having his endorsement revoked and is facing a former State Rep who now has the party endorsement. Seat is heavily leaning DFL but could conceivably flip with a damaged candidate like the incumbent. 67's DFL primary is a literal free-for-all, there is NINE DFL candidates running, three of which are Hmong like the outgoing incumbent, one who is Indian, and one who is black. Seat is on the east side of St. Paul, completely safe DFL. Senate Seat 7 is a safe seat being vacated by Dayton's running mate, and there's a primary between a former Republican and standard liberal Democrat.

The GOP primary in House district 08B might be interesting too, the former mayor of the town of Mora and described moderate will face a 22-year old teabagger for the GOP nomination. Seat is fairly conservative but has a DFL incumbent who barely won last time. Can't think of a better opponent for him than some young teabagger nut. A few other seats have establishment candidate vs. teabagger matchups, including 29A being vacated by Randy Demmer to run against Tim Walz. The teabagger is actually kind of hot though in a very trashy way: http://www.kerrystoick.com Although from looking at her site it appears she has six kids even though from her timeline of education she's only about 33. Um, that's just...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Romanoff would be the stronger GE candidate, so him. Bennet isn't a bad guy but he's really out of his league, should've just agreed to be a placeholder which he would be fine for.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gotta stick with Lamont out of residual loyalty.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's raining pretty bad in Minneapolis now. Doubt that'll affect much as only more hardcore voters will show up on primaries anyway. I dislike rainwater though so I took a second shower just after getting back. Should clear up in the afternoon though, a second wave is coming but won't hit us until after the polls close, if there was something big in western Minnesota that could be a factor.

Voted around 10:45AM and was the 96th person in my precinct to vote. Not bad turnout really. Voted for Margaret Anderson-Kelliher and for Keith Ellison, Lori Swanson and Mark Ritchie over their token opposition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey all. Nice to get off work and be here.

Looks like the DFL ground game has been fantastic. I received calls from Kelliher's people, so it's not too surprising, but she is way overperforming.

Also the mentioned ethically challenged State Senator in district 50 is going down in flames...

Another seat to watch is the GOP race in District 12. The incumbent is a gay who was outed in 2005. He got a primary challenger in 2006 who basically insisted that he wasn't running because the other guy was gay even though he couldn't give any other reasons and defeated him soundly. This year though he lost the endorsement after a revelation he once lived with a gay porn star. With 5/79 precincts reporting he's at 35% and going down hard.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Heh, my precinct:

    OLE' SAVIOR AND TODD "ELVIS" ANDERSON    1   10.00   
    LESLIE DAVIS AND GREGORY K. SODERBERG    2   20.00   
    BOB CARNEY JR AND WILLIAM MCGAUGHEY    1   10.00   
    TOM EMMER AND ANNETTE T. MEEKS    6   60.00

    MARGARET ANDERSON KELLIHER AND JOHN GUNYOU    195   49.62   
    PETER IDUSOGIE AND LADY JAYNE FONTAINE    0   0.00   
    MATT ENTENZA AND ROBYNE ROBINSON    66   16.79   
    MARK DAYTON AND YVONNE PRETTNER SOLON    132   33.59

The Republican running unopposed for CD 5 has 8 votes. On the DFL side:

    BARB DAVIS WHITE    23   6.08   
    KEITH ELLISON    341   90.21   
    GREGG A. IVERSON    14   3.70

Davis White was Ellison's Republican opponent in 2008, and she has more votes than the actual Republican.

Now of course it's true that there was no real reason for Republicans to vote but still quite amusing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Which if so would benefit Kelliher, the DFL establishment candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-GOV is anyone's game too.  The advantage for Dayton is that a lot of Duluth is still out and games often happen there.

Which if so would benefit Kelliher, the DFL establishment candidate.

However, Dayton's been kicking her butt there so far.

Dayton's running mate is from there.

But yeah that would make it good for him that much of it is still out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well District 50 is almost all in and Chaudhary went down hard. He didn't even break 30% and got wiped out almost everywhere.

Also in District 12 Koering, the gay Republican is down 13 points with over 80% of precincts in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, MAK won Hennepin County pretty solidly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually comparing the SoS site it looks like he just picked colors at random. The two he has going for Entenza voted over 50% for Dayton.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Or me either. And it's quite off from the Minnesota SoS site that I'm reading.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man Nobles County is weird. Always is.

Entenza has over 50% there, what? He's not from anywhere near there, he's from St. Paul.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmmm I always knew he was born in California.

Oddly he's getting owned in the counties just to the west of it. Demographically based on the rest of the map it's very odd how strong they are for MAK...I wonder if it's because they're hyper-conservative and the few Democrats are establishment hacks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well that Young Republican teabagger douche I mentioned is down big with 50% in, though he got almost a third, which is kind of impressive. Though Mora isn't in yet, the town his opponent was mayor of.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's an interesting map, demographic-wise...

Yeah Dayton has won. Not a single precinct in from his running mate's State Senate district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Young Republican teabagger prick in 8B has impressively closed the gap and up to 44%, but Mora is still out. He ain't winning, but it's amusing he ran so well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll concede that Dayton is probably the stronger candidate, based on the demographics of the map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was going to muse about why Entenza won the majority black precincts in Minneapolis until I remembered that his running mate is black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Benishek was the teabagger right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm glad to see Svensson has dropped the rather comical facade and adopted the correct avatar.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No it's just something I noticed while browsing the results.