The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 147095 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #50 on: June 04, 2014, 02:53:50 PM »

Rankin County is all in now, and Cochran narrowly won it, 50-49 percent.

Still a few precincts out in Hinds county, but Cochran is winning by a wide margin there. Everything else is in. 49.5 to 49.0 McDaniel. AP still hasn't officially projected a runoff though.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #51 on: June 04, 2014, 03:29:02 PM »

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.
So, Cochran could get to 50% of the vote still?
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #52 on: June 04, 2014, 04:45:48 PM »

With every single precinct now in, the primary finishes at 49.5 to 49.0 McDaniel. Get ready for a nasty runoff.

Cochran should worry - Larry Sabato just updated his ratings, and MS-Sen has been shifted from Safe R to Likely R - with a primary rating of Lean McDaniel.

Other rating changes based on last night's results include:
CA-26 from Likely D to Leans D
CA-25 from Leans R to Safe R
IA-4 from Safe R to Likely R
IA-2 from Safe D to Likely D
NJ-3 from Toss-Up to Leans R


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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #53 on: June 07, 2014, 11:25:09 AM »

The main attraction is the SC senate primary - if Graham falls short of 50%, it goes to a runoff, in which he may very well be quite vulnerable. The GOP Lt. Gov. primary is worth your time as well.

ME-2 is worth a glance, as are all of the AR runoffs (Att. Gen. (R), State House District 16 (D), State Senate District 17 (R).)

If you like seeing weak candidates face each other, take a look at NV-Gov (D) , but do note the GE race is Safe R, so the democratic primary is really just a big beauty contest.

ND and VA are boring.

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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #54 on: June 07, 2014, 05:00:20 PM »

Any chance that McDaniel's success inspires something similar in South Carolina? Does the South Carolina Democratic Party have a candidate who can give them a shot against a crazy Tea Partier?

There's a State Senator in the race who shouldn't be an awful candidate.
I don't see State Sen. Brad Hutto being competitive against State Sen. Lee Bright, who is the most likely to defeat Graham, but if Graham is defeated by Businessman Richard Cash or Businesswoman Nancy Mace, and they make several big gaffes, Hutto runs a great campaign, and 2014 turns out to be a bad republican year (i.e. one where the republicans only pick up 1-2 seats in the senate), then perhaps Mr. Hutto can pull off a narrow victory. But it's very, very doubtful - Mr. Hutto is nowhere near the caliber of Mr. Childers in MS as far as being an electable candidate goes, and Childers isn't great in that category at all as it is (mainly because he's running in MS).
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #55 on: June 10, 2014, 05:36:15 PM »

Polls in South Carolina and Virginia close in 25 minutes. Remember - the first votes in Virginia are, if possible, always from more conservative parts of the state.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #56 on: June 10, 2014, 06:12:56 PM »

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #57 on: June 10, 2014, 06:21:28 PM »

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent

Probably won't hold, but how amazing would it be to see Cantor go down?
Very amazing and truly astonishing.

We're now up to 22%, Brat still ahead 60-40.

1% in VA-08 now, Beyer ahead with 36%, Hope in second with 18%.

Still nothing from SC.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #58 on: June 10, 2014, 06:25:59 PM »

33% in VA-07, Brat lead down to 57-43. Could very well be enough liberal votes left to pull cantor out (most conservative votes always come first in VA), but we'll have to see.

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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #59 on: June 10, 2014, 06:41:05 PM »

51% now in VA-7, Brat lead only down to 56-44. I learned in last year's gov race to not underestimate the liberal vote, but 12 points just seems likely to be a bit too much. No politico call yet, so Cantor can still keep hoping.

22% in VA-8, Beyer ahead with 45%, Hope in 2nd with 22%. No call here either.

0.1% for South Carolina Senate. Hutto leading Stamper 76-24 for the dems, Graham leading Bright 71-10 for the republicans.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #60 on: June 10, 2014, 06:43:04 PM »

59% now in VA-7, Brat lead up to 58-42. No call yet, but I don't see any way for Cantor to make it at this point.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #61 on: June 10, 2014, 06:47:56 PM »

68%, back to 56-44.

This really looks like it's going to hold. Congratulations to the Tea Party!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #62 on: June 10, 2014, 06:54:48 PM »

No clue, all the articles I read today were predicting a Cantor victory of at least 10 points, but Cantor's going to lose this by like 6-9 points when all of the vote is in.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #63 on: June 10, 2014, 07:01:00 PM »

Up to 75% now in VA-07, Brat still holding at 56-44. No call yet though.

41% in VA-08, Beyer ahead of Hope 43-23. This one not called either.

nothing significant yet from SC.

Maine polls closing right now.

Brat will only face two third party opponents in November. No dem candidate.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #64 on: June 10, 2014, 07:03:46 PM »

Brat could lose in November I suppose, really depends on how good of a candidate Trammell actually is and how bad of a candidate Brat is. Definitely Likely R to start.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #65 on: June 10, 2014, 07:05:57 PM »

80% in, still 56-44, and Politico now calls it for Brat.

I must say I am truly surprised. The Tea party is not dead...at least not in VA.

In SC, Graham is at 64%. Only 0.7% in though.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #66 on: June 10, 2014, 07:10:34 PM »

Can't wait for the concession speech.
There may be quite the wait for that. I could see Cantor pulling a Romney and not writing such a speech until the projection was actually made (which was about 5 minutes ago), in which case we have to wait for Cantor to actually write the speech before we can hear it.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #67 on: June 10, 2014, 07:18:18 PM »

So far so good for Graham. Up to 8% now, he's at 63%. Bright in second at 11%.

Hutto leading Stamper 73-27 for the dems with 10% in.

Shaheen and Haley win the gubernatorial nominations unopposed.

8% for SC Senate Special. Dickerson leads Moore 69-21 for the democrats. Scott wins the republican nomination 91-9 over Young!

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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #68 on: June 10, 2014, 07:24:08 PM »

For SC Lt. Gov., Sellers wins the Dem. Nomination unopposed. With 9% in, McMaster is leading for the GOP nomination, 42 to 27% over McKinney. Campbell at 24%.

All Gubernatorial and Senate Nominations for ME were won unopposed. (Michaud, Lepage, Cutler for Gov. ; Bellows and Collins for Sen. )

Pingree (D) and Misiuk (R) win the ME-01 primaries unopposed.

Nothing significant yet for ME-02.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #69 on: June 10, 2014, 07:27:57 PM »

VA-08 is called for Beyer, who leads Hope 45-20 with 68% in! Ebbin in 3rd at 15%.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #70 on: June 10, 2014, 07:36:39 PM »

Hutto wins the SC regular democratic senate nomination, 75-25 over Stamper with 22% in!

Dickerson wins the SC special democratic senate nomination, 67-23 over Moore with 19% in!

3% in for ME-02, Cain ahead of Jackson 73-27 for the dems, Poliquin ahead of Raye 62-38 for the reps

Nothing in from AR yet.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #71 on: June 10, 2014, 07:40:48 PM »

Graham still holding strong at 61% with 25% in.

If Boehner does indeed step down as speaker, then Cantor's defeat is a good thing for all of us, as he would have been a terrible speaker. Hopefully the new speaker and majority leader will understand that compromise is always the answer.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #72 on: June 10, 2014, 07:55:47 PM »

40% now in SC, Graham down to 59%.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #73 on: June 10, 2014, 08:08:03 PM »

11% now in ME-02, Cain ahead of Jackson 75-25 for the dems, Poliquin ahead of Raye 61-39 for the reps.

47% in for SC rep. Lt. Gov, McMaster leading McKinney 43 to 26 with Campbell at 24%. Graham still at 59% with half of the vote in for the senate.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #74 on: June 10, 2014, 08:13:41 PM »

As we continue to await calls for SC Rep. Lt. Gov, SC Rep. Reg. Senate, The Arkansas Runoffs, and the ME-02 primaries, North Dakota wins the 'most boring state of the night' award, with Sinner (D), Cramer (R), and Seamen (L) winning the house nominations unopposed.
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