Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[adma]

What if the Conservatives we're able to win the most seats, but the Liberals won a plurality of the popular vote and formed a coalition with the NDP(post-election). Who do you think would be the next Prime Minister?

This pic is an example of what I'm referring to:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eaPZ7TplOGo/VhuIDB7oxUI/AAAAAAAAHSU/7pLuLwvvVQs/w560-h280-c/12%2Boctobre%2B2015.png

Has anything like this ever happened before in another Canadian general election?

Do you mean *Canadian* general election, or general election in *Canada*?  Because the obvious case that comes to mind is Ontario, 1985...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

Charest has been around forever. I'm surprised he's not too old at this point.

[MaxQue]

Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

Charest has been around forever. I'm surprised he's not too old at this point.

He began very young, I even wonder if he wasn't the youngest Cabinet minister ever when appointed.

[Vosem]

Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

Charest has been around forever. I'm surprised he's not too old at this point.

He began very young, I even wonder if he wasn't the youngest Cabinet minister ever when appointed.

Charest was elected to the federal Parliament at age 26 and appointed to Cabinet at 28. He was leader of the federal PCs at 37, and Premier of Quebec at 45. He's currently 57; younger, for instance, than Thomas Mulcair.

[trebor204]

Take this with a grain of salt.

A poll released by the Liberal campaign in Winnipeg-Centre has

Robert-Falcon Ouellette (Lib) leading the NDP Incumbent Pat Martin by a 35-26

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2015/10/13/ouellette-claims-poll-has-him-in-front

[RogueBeaver]

This rumour has been floated twice before and Charest shot it down. In his concession speech 3 years ago he was very explicit about his family being exhausted of politics and how they wanted him to retire even before the election. By all accounts he's enjoying his legal career.

[emcee0]

CEO of Mainstreet Polling says it will be a Liberal majority https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/654113484729282560

[136or142]

Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

I mentioned his name before. But, on CBC's The House a while back he said something like "one promise I know I can keep is that I'm never getting back into elected politics."

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

CEO of Mainstreet Polling says it will be a Liberal majority https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/654113484729282560

RIP the NDP

[HagridOfTheDeep]

CEO of Mainstreet Polling says it will be a Liberal majority https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/654113484729282560

Well, it was obvious we were heading to this result a week ago. I know things could still change... but they won't.

[DL]

In most elections the incumbent does a bit better and the main challenger a bit worse than the final polls and also sometimes the "momentum" stalls at the end. I remember the final two weeks of the 2006 élection hennit semés lire the Whelan were domine of the Liberal Campaign and the Toties underground Harper Head all this momentum...on the friday Bedford thé élection polls Head thé Tories as much as 14 points Ahmad of The Liberals 41-27 and everyone was talking CLC majority, the when the votes were counted it was only a 6 point 36-30 spread and Tories were about 40 seats below a majority...

[Holmes]

Timmins-James Bay
62-21-11

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC "projections" for seat totals (Oct. 13): 136/118/80/3/1

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/

How reliable is CBC and Eric Grenier when it comes to predictions?

[cp]

Grenier's flagship site threehundredeight.com has been around for years. His predictions are fair, both in the sense of being even-handed and in the sense of being neither stunningly impressive nor outright bad.

Apropos of nothing, I remember reading an article a few weeks back that asked a 'high-ranking Liberal' (or something like that) what the outcome of the election would be. S/he said something along the lines of 'whoever is ahead in the polls 5 days out will win'.

Not exactly a crystal ball, I know, but it's bears mentioning that the election is now 5 days away.

[136or142]

Which incumbents would you most like to see lose?

For me, these are the ones (that likely could lose):
1.Joe Oliver
2.Pierre Polievre
3.Paul Calandra
4.Chris Alexander
5.Julian Fantino
6.Wei Young
7.Alice Wong
8.Kerri Lynne Findley
9.Leona Aglukaq

[cp]

Poilievre and Alexander, in that order.

Daily Nanos Tracking 36.1/29.2/24.5

Regional numbers are all pretty much steady.

[lilTommy]

Looks like the NDP vote may be efficient, given the low % number.  If they can manage to win the competitive races in the old city of Toronto, southwestern and Northern ontario, and get 5% everywhere else in the province (905, central, rural-east), they may not see the significant blow are expecting.

Also, some polls for some Northern Ontario ridings, still strong for the NDP.

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178

Yeah the NDP may be able to take 5 seats in Toronto: Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.

As for SW Ontario, this region has really shown to be the "fool's gold" for the NDP.  Besides Essex, what else can they pick up there?  The region isn't as "rust belt"-like as many assume.  I don't see the SW Ontario populist strategy yielding many gains.

Beaches-East York will be close, so will Toronto Centre between the NDP/Liberals. The NDP will probably also retain Scarborough North on Rathika's personal popularity; Scarborough SW is still likely to go Liberal sadly. The other NDP seat is York South-Weston, but I haven't heard much about it? the Liberals don't seem to have a strong candidate, but the NDP MP isn't/hasn't been very high profile.  

SWON, outside of Essex, the NDP were in a close fight in Brantford-Brant and Sarnia-Lambton. Niagara Falls has a former Liberal city councillor who is backed by the former Liberal MPP and the current NDP MPP running for the NDP so that might be in play.  Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas was in play but that will possibly go Liberal if the polling is right, although the NDP has the highest profile candidate (good and bad). The next on the list that I've heard mentioned was Chatham-Kent-Leamington.

The North is hard to gauge I think; the NDP might look to pick up TB-Superior North but could lose Sudbury (even with the Liberal scandal); Nipissing-Timiscaming is likely to go back Liberal, and Sault Ste. Marie is a three way race. Kenora should go NDP with the party really pushing Hampton and an Aboriginal policy but it's still very competitive for all three.  

[Vosem]

Environics conducted some polling of the BC Interior and rural Ontario that is...very, very bad for Conservatives.

Cariboo-Prince George
36-30-29

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
34-31-29

North Okanagan-Shuswap
37-33-22

Vancouver-Granville
35-33-28

Peterborough-Kawartha
46-34-17

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
41-40-16

Kitchener Centre
46-28-22

Kanata-Carleton
50-39-8

Nepean
47-40-10

If Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (a riding that was within single-digits for Reform and the CA in 1997 & 2000, and that's been so uncontested in the recent past that the Greens came in second in 2008) is seriously in danger of falling to the Liberals (and I'm not confident that's a poll result I believe)...but if it is the case, the Conservatives are performing worse than 2004 in Ontario.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean constituency polling is not very reliable (or so I'm told someone here likes to say) but those are some spectacularly grim numbers. As in if accurate and if reflective they would point towards coming third in terms of seats.

[DL]

Interesting pair of riding polls in the Saguenay region of Quebec. Chicoutimi and Jonquiere both went NDP in 2011 by relatively modest margins and in both seats the Tories did quite a bit better than in most Quebec seats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency#Jonqui.C3.A8re

In Chicoutimi the NDP incumbent Dany Morin is well positioned with an 11 point 33-22 lead over the Liberals and BQ with the Tories bring up the rear at 20% - note that for all the hype about Conservatives gains in rural Quebec over the niqab issues - CPC support is actually DOWN from 26% to 20% and BQ support in this nationalist stronghold has actually dropped from 29% to 22%...all that has happened it the Liberals have risen from the dead and gone from 6% to 22%

Its a similar story in Jonquiere where the NDP incumbent actually crossed the floor to the BQ and then declined to run again. Despite not even having an incumbent the NDP leads with 33%, Libs have a dead cat bounce to 24% and the Conservatives have crashed from 34% in 2011 to just 20% now. BQ support is flat like a pancake at 20% (same as in 2011).

If this is a common pattern across Quebec outside Montreal and the micro-climate of Quebec City you could see the NDP win 2/3 of the seats in Quebec with one third of the vote!

[Holmes]

Maybe Quebec + BC + scraps in Northern Ontario, prairies and the Atlantic will help the NDP reach 80 - 100 seats...

[DC Al Fine]

Quebec will be interesting on election night for sure.

If DL's analysis is true, a small shift in support for the NDP could mean the difference between a minor loss and a massive one.

It's also interesting to see how each party views their support. The Bloc wishes they were more concentrated, the Liberals want to be more spread out. I imagine the Tories are pretty happy if their 15% is concentrated in Quebec City & Chaudiere-Appalaches.

[Phony Moderate]

What will the next four years be like if it's a Liberal majority with an NDP opposition?

[King of Kensington]

It won't happen.

[RogueBeaver]

If the polls hold then Justin gets the usual year-long honeymoon as other parties change leaders. Then he'll start looking for his electoral window.