Is Obama Finished?

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This is all some of the reasons why I think if the Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot and choose some like Bachmann or Palin come primary time. The election against Obama in Fall of 2012 won't even be close.
      

I read this.  Then I immediately stopped reading.  We have enough people on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc giving us their worthless predictions.  We don't need to come onto an internet forum and hear more of the same.  Why do you think Jeb Bush has stayed out of this race?  Why do you think it took so long for people to announce?  Because its going to be a cakewalk?

Have you heard any solid good ideas from the candidates about how they plan on doing a better job than Obama.  Ok, Bachmann's "freedom of choice" light bulb bill.  Anything else?  Oh yes I almost forgot, even more tax breaks for the wealthy.  Perfect.

Anyone predicting a landslide victory or defeat for either party at this point in time is either mentally ill or a partisan hack.

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A year is a long time in politics, but I don't see how he recovers back to a steady ~50% approval rating. He may hit that mark again, but remaining constantly there or thereabouts looks pretty unlikely as we stand now. We all know the economy, and the unemployment number (how it's trending, and if any real progress has been made) will determine the election, and with it forecast not to improve that drastically between now and Nov 2012, he pretty much has no chance.

He's been very lucky to have evaded the upper 30s for approval for this long, but I think the floor has finally dropped out of him, and people are finally fed up.

Imagine if this was George Bush - his approval would be further tanked. Obama is one lucky guy, and saying he's lucky with an approval rating at 39% for today speaks volumes.

Your pronouncements and predictions are baseless.  Obama is doing a decent job with what he's been given and there is a certain reasonable section of society that realizes that.  If he has people like Bachmann trying to send the US government into default its all the guy can do to keep the country afloat.

The reason approval ratings at this point are almost worthless is all you need is an uptick in the economy and a dip in unemployment and Obama's numbers will go up.  That is a fact.  Now I KNOW you can't predict what the economy will be doing a year from now.  I know Republicans hope and pray America won't be doing well but the rest of us actually hope things will improve.

The other problem is if you disapprove of Obama who are you going to vote for?  None of the Republicans have said how they intend to create more jobs than Obama.  Oh, I almost forgot, they have advocated for even more tax breaks for the rich.

The truth is this far out no one knows.  Its wide open.

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There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

These are like useless football statistics.  You know...  No team has come back from a 2 touch down deficit this late in the third quarter when its snowing on a Monday in Buffalo and then gone on to with the NFC title game.  You can contort the numbers any way you want, but I can tell you you can't call the game a year in advance.

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Lastly, campaigns and candidates hardly matter in presidential elections.

Whatever gets you to sleep at night.

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So when you see just 26% of people support his job on the economy, which is the number one issue of the electorate right now, it only compounds his problem and shows that he is very lucky indeed to be holding a ~40% approval rating.

I agree with this.  His approval rating is still around 40% because he is likeable as a person and because he's "only" been on the job 2.5 years.  But by Nov 2012, people will be judging his performance much more than his likability, and his economic and overall approval ratings will begin to merge.

And if the unemployment rate is still 9.xx, he will lose, and lose badly, regardless if the GOP nominee is Bachmann/Christie/Perry/Romney/Ryan.

While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

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While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

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He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

well, picture a debate setting in late Oct 2012 with unemployment at 9.x and Obama's approval at 30%, and male Obama being taken to task by a female Bachmann for making things worse and not taking responsibility for his failures....and basically accusing Obama for not manning up and using the phrases "be a man" and "take responsibility" in every other sentence.

She'd cut his balls off.

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.  I do not have intimate knowledge of the lowest common denominator.  So I will have to yield to your expertise in that area.  Maybe I have been looking at this the wrong way... that WOULD explain Perry's behavior as of late.

One thing I can say is I do recall one "female" who told a gentleman to "man up" as you put it.  She lost.

The really ironic part, that didn't seem to be picked up by the media, was the man she told to "man up" was actually a boxer!  He served as a running mate for his boxing coach when his coach ran for governor.  Man up indeed!

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Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

yeah, and she's smart enough (and more than willing) to castrate him in each opening sentence and then use the very next sentence to pitch her solution...

If I were Obama, I wouldn't want Bachmann after my balls, for she could damage his stature more than Perry/Ryan/Romney/Christie combined.  And she's exactly the type that would go after his balls.

At least now everybody knows the type of person we are dealing with.

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She'd cut his balls off.

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that should could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I think we just gained further insight into the mind of another forum poster.

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She'd cut his balls off.[/b][/size]

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

she does NOT have to be crass, just like Reagan wasn't crass when he basically repeatedly called Carter a puss by simply repeatedly saying "there you go again..."   The important thing is whether the audience gets the point, as it did in 1980.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that she could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I'm just saying don't underestimate the damage she could do against a man not willing to own up to his failures

You were saying the same things about Palin when she was picked for the VP slot and we all know how well that worked out. Bachmann is Palin 2.0 and won't win a general election even if the current situation gets worse.

Time machine.

Nice finishing move.  These threads have been peppered with such extreme proclamations that its going to be a field day if Obama wins in '12.  If Obama wins I'm going to be doing my own H. G. Wells impression.