India 2014

[Gustaf]

Compared to the poll Jaichind posted from Bihar, the ABP exit poll indicated NDA doing a little worse, UPA a little better. The Times Now exit poll however has BJP doing a lot better than the poll.

[Gustaf]

CVoter/MP:

BJP: 26
INC: 3

CVoter/Dehli:

BJP grabs it all

CVoter/Rajasthan:

BJP: 22
INC: 2

[Gustaf]

CVoter/Gujarat:

BJP: 22¨
INC: 4

[Gustaf]

Times Now/Jharkand:

BJP: 7
INC: 6

[Gustaf]

Times Now:

West Bengal

TMC: 20
Left: 15
INC: 5
BJP: 2

Seemandhra

BJP+TDP: 17
YSRC: 8

Telangana:

TRS: 8
BJP+TDP: 2
INC: 4
Left: 2

Karnataka

BJP: 18
INC: 9
JDS: 1

[Sbane]

If the exit polls are right, a strong performance by the BJP.

[Gustaf]

Times Now/Tamil Nadu bucks the trend:

AIADMK: 31
DMK: 7
INC: 1

Not a seat for the NDA there.

The CVoter exit poll predicts NDA at 289 nationally.

[Sbane]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/Modi-on-course-for-election-victory-exit-polls-show/articleshow/35027742.cms

[Gustaf]

Times Now/UP

BJP: 52
INC: 10

If that holds, it would seem like the election is over.

[ag]

It was predictable, but it is nevertheless horrible.

Seems like, I will have to boycott Indian products for the next 5 years.

[RogueBeaver]

How do you say "I won" in Hindi/Hindustani?

[covermyeyes]

Bihar/Times Now:

BJP: 28

RDJ:  0
INC:  2
JDU: 10

Absolute comedy.

I think they might have gotten the JDU and RJD figures reserved somehow.

[Sbane]

It was predictable, but it is nevertheless horrible.

Seems like, I will have to boycott Indian products for the next 5 years.

How many other countries do you boycott?

[covermyeyes]

Assam: BJP 8 (out of 14)

So far exit polling indicates them beating Jaichind's prediction.

CSDS vote shares in Assam are as follows

INC:  40 %
BJP:  22 %
AGP: 13 %

Past results

1998

INC:10    BJP: 1    AGP: 0
 39 %     24.5 %    12.7 %

1999:

INC:10    BJP:2    AGP: 0
 38 %     29.8 %    11.9 %

2004

INC: 9      BJP:2      AGP:2
 35.1 %    22.9 %    20 %

2009

INC: 7      BJP: 4    AIUF: 1    AGP:1
34.9  %    16.2 %   16.1 %  14.6 %

[covermyeyes]

If the exit polls are right, a strong performance by the BJP.

Thankfully they are never right. It seems certain BJP led NDA will form a government. But, I am still hoping for a much stronger performance by the UPA and Third Front, so we won't be condemned to a "strong" Modi government for 5 years.

[ag]

It was predictable, but it is nevertheless horrible.

Seems like, I will have to boycott Indian products for the next 5 years.

How many other countries do you boycott?

Most Frankly, how many countries produce anything I have a chance to buy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thankfully they are never right.

Yeah, the record of Indian exit polls is somewhat less than stellar. Though this is still bad news (obviously).

Quickly looking through some of the figures, I have to call bullsh!t at some of the seat projections used, but we'll see.

[jaichind]

I have been at a conference all day today but was able to look at some of the exit poll results now.  It seems that most of them converge around 270-280 for NDA.  If so it seems that the momentum is on the side of NDA.  Some of the state levels projections seem very problematic to me but I think many of them cancel each other out across all these different exit polls. 

A summery would be



Times Now state level results make the least sense to me and Today's Chanakya results also make no sense.  In terms of vote share Today's Chanakya is similar to the others but just has a very high NDA seat conversion ratio which makes no sense to me.  Throwing these two out we have NDA at around 270-280 or so for NDA which is higher than the 250 or so pre-election survey. 

My prediction of 225 for NDA was based on exit polls averaging around 240-250 for NDA but with exit polls converging at a higher number it seems 1) the pre-election polls has been confirmed and 2) the NDA has momentum on its side.  It would not surprise me if the NDA will come in at higher than 280.  The only word of caution is I suspect these exit polls still does not  capture anti-Modi tactical voting in in which case NDA will come in more around 250.  Either way we are looking at a Modi government.

[jaichind]

I will try to recalibrate my predictions based on these exit polls and re-post them later this week.

[jaichind]

INC internal assessment seems to be that INC might capture as much as 130 seats but that might be on the high side.  I guess they feel it is more likely it would be around 110 if 130 is considered high.  If so that would be consistent with NDA around 240-260 or so.  Sensing defeat the INC is trying to deflect blame on Rahul Gandhi by saying that the party leadership will have to take collective responsibility for the results. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh... The quote in my sig gets truer by the day.

[jaichind]

Of course the wide variation at the state level between the different exit polls does lead to some doubt on how accurate they are.  For example, if I cherry picked the most pro-UPA result for each state amoung the different exit polls and reconstructed the most pro-UPA exit poll we get

                        NDA         UPA
Maharastra       29           19      Times Now
AP                     12             7      C Voter
WB                     1              5      AC-Nielsen
Bihar                 20           15      AC-Nielsen
TN                      0              1      Times Now
MP                    18             9       Times Now
Karnataka          8            17       Cicero
Gujarat            22              4       Times Now
Rajasthan        11            14       Times Now
Orissa               2               5       Times Now
Assam               1             10       CNN-IBN
Jharkhand         7               6       Times Now
Punjab              5               7       AC-Nielsen
Chattisgrah      7               4       Times Now
Harayana          3               7      Times Now
Delhi                 5               2       Times Now
JK                     1               5       Times Now
Uttarkhand       1               4       Times Now
Goa                  1                1       Times Now
HP                    1               3        Times Now
UP                   46              8        AC-Nielsen
Kerela              0              17       Times Now
NE                    3               5        Times Now
Federal            0               6       CNN-IBN
--------------------------------------------
                    204            181

Now, the exit poll results which are the most pro-UPA for MP and Rajasthan are from Times Now and are highly suspicious, especially Rajasthan.  Times Now claim that in both states AAP will take 10% of the vote and cut into the anti-INC pro-BJP vote share.  This is very dubious since both states are not very urban and for AAP to win 10% of the vote they will have to sweep all urban areas which is very unlikely.  For Rajasthan, Times Now did say that if they took a pro-BJP view of vote share within the margin of error it would be NDA 17 UPA 8 instead of NDA 11 UPA 14.  Even if we did that  change our cherry picking model of exit polls would be NDA 210 UPA 175.   So the margin of error for these exit polls seems to be quite large.  So while it is unlikely NDA would not cross 250 seats this Friday there exist significant statistical change even by these exit polls that NDA could end up with 230 or even 220.

[jaichind]

Seems like INC is not the only one trying to lower expectations.  It is rumored that RSS, the parent body of BJP, leaked out an internal assessment of the election and projected 220 for NDA.

[jaichind]

One of the more comical exit polls is News24 Todays Chanakya UP

It has

Vote Share
BJP+          34%
BSP           22%
SP             23%
INC+         12%
AAP            5%

Seat Share
BJP+          70
BSP             3
SP               4
INC             3

In theory if the relative strengths of these parties were uniform across UP then these vote share could translate into these seats shares.  But in fact the relative strength of SP BSP INC are quite scattered and non-uniform across UP in a significant way.  The only way these vote shares translate into these seat shares if there are pro-BJP minority tactical voting where anti-BJP votes to avoid the strongest challenger to BJP to ensure the victory for BJP.  This proposition of course is absurd based on intention and ability of the anti-BJP bloc.

[njwes]

So there won't be a gradual release of the results, just one huge announcement on Friday?