Canadian by-elections, 2014

[mileslunn]

Any guesses on the next federal by-elections?

Here are my takes

Macleod

Solid Conservative so I suspect an easy Conservative win here.  Interestingly enough John Barlow won is a moderate and comes from the provincial PCs rather than Wildrose Alliance.

Fort-McMurray-Athabasca

Probably Tory, but notorious for some of the worst turnouts in Canada as well as a highly transient population, an upset is at least plausible here.  If the Tories lose here, though I suspect there will be a lot more pressure on Harper to resign as leader.

Whitby-Oshawa

As a typical 905 belt, should lean Tory, but a Liberal win cannot be ruled out nonetheless if the Tories cannot win here, they are unlikely to win nationally so I also suspect a loss unless its by a very small margin would also hurt Harper's control over caucus too.

Scarborough-Agincourt

Fairly solidly Liberal although as much of a sleazebag as Jim Karygiannis was, he was quite popular in his riding and in fact its quite possible the Tories would have won this as well as the NDP would done much better had he not been the candidate.  Nonetheless considering the improvement of Liberal numbers nationally and decline of the Tories it should stay Liberal.

Trinity-Spadina

This is my riding and certainly the choice of Adam Vaughan helps the Liberals although the NDP could still win.  That being said I think Adam Vaughan was a bad choice overall as he is quite left wing and if he is given too high a profile it could hurt the Liberals in the 905 belt which is more Blue Liberal rather than Progressive Liberal territory and its the 905 belt, not downtown Toronto who will determine the next government.

[mileslunn]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?

[mileslunn]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?

No clue. Most likely government or Elections Canada will have to find a solution (or appeal, as the judge refused to grant them a stay).

One solution might be to have overseas constituencies like France and Italy do that way you wouldn't have the issue of people voting in ridings they no longer live in, but they will still be able to exercise their right to vote.

[mileslunn]

4 federals are called for June 30. Not Whitby-Oshawa.

I wonder if the Tories are worried about losing Whitby-Oshawa and if that happened it could hurt Harper's leadership.  If he puts it off enough and loses there won't be time to dump him and choose a new leader so that may be the reason, although it could also be timing as he has more time on that one.

[mileslunn]

4 federals are called for June 30. Not Whitby-Oshawa.

I wonder if the Tories are worried about losing Whitby-Oshawa and if that happened it could hurt Harper's leadership.  If he puts it off enough and loses there won't be time to dump him and choose a new leader so that may be the reason, although it could also be timing as he has more time on that one.

Probably true at the moment, but I suspect those east of the Ottawa River where the Tories are polling quite poorly and those who narrowly won in 2011 are a bit nervous at this point.  Since 2013 was only the mid point and often governments do poorly at the midway points, many were hoping the party would recover, but if by the end of this year they haven't started to at least partially recover, I suspect there will be more pushing for Harper to go.  Maybe not enough to push him out, but enough to weaken the unity.
I don't think there's any danger of a coup right now.