The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently. 

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently. 

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

[J. J.]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently. 

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number. 

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently.  

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number.  

We have had this discussion before. The R+25.8% is for MIB for the whole election. You can find the info on the North Carolina Elections website, unfortunately while they break down everything by by sub groups they don't total it up so you have to do the math yourself.

Mail In Ballots in North Carolina in 2008

Republicans 122,411 (53.74%)
Democrats 63,701 (27.96%)
Libertarian 115 (0.05%)
Other 41,567 (18.25%)

[J. J.]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently.  

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number.  

We have had this discussion before. The R+25.8% is for MIB for the whole election. You can find the info on the North Carolina Elections website, unfortunately while they break down everything by by sub groups they don't total it up so you have to do the math yourself.

Mail In Ballots in North Carolina in 2008

Republicans 122,411 (53.74%)
Democrats 63,701 (27.96%)
Libertarian 115 (0.05%)
Other 41,567 (18.25%)

Mike, saying that it is running ahead or behind the entire period will not cut it.  We have MacDonald's comments that were cited earlier absentee voting it was R +20 in "early voting"; it is now running slightly ahead of that and as of tomorrow, we'll go to "one stop," as well.

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.

More votes will cast by "one stop" voters, but check the absentee applications, not the votes cast.  It tend to be prospective.  That was about R +20 in 2008.  It is + 22.7 currently.  

Actually Mail in Ballots were R +25.8% in 2008.

At this point in time?  Where are you statistics.  I did previously post Professor MacDonald's number.  

We have had this discussion before. The R+25.8% is for MIB for the whole election. You can find the info on the North Carolina Elections website, unfortunately while they break down everything by by sub groups they don't total it up so you have to do the math yourself.

Mail In Ballots in North Carolina in 2008

Republicans 122,411 (53.74%)
Democrats 63,701 (27.96%)
Libertarian 115 (0.05%)
Other 41,567 (18.25%)

Mike, saying that it is running ahead or behind the entire period will not cut it.  We have MacDonald's comments that were cited earlier absentee voting it was R +20 in "early voting"; it is now running slightly ahead of that and as of tomorrow, we'll go to "one stop," as well.

Honestly I have no clue what you are trying to say.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida Early Voting

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/

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Tough to get a read on Florida. Democrats are doing much better in absentee voting than they did 4 years ago (Reps +16) but is that because more Dems are voting absentee instead early in person because the in person window was shortened?

[J. J.]

Honestly I have no clue what you are trying to say.

Well, let me put it this way.

According to the guy who tracks the statistics, NC was about R +20 at this point in time in 2008.  Today, in 2012, it is R + 22.7, in terms of applications for absentee ballots, and R  +27.1 in terms of those absentee ballots cast.  What part don't you understand?

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I have no clue what you are trying to say.

Well, let me put it this way.

According to the guy who tracks the statistics, NC was about R +20 at this point in time in 2008.  Today, in 2012, it is R + 22.7, in terms of applications for absentee ballots, and R  +27.1 in terms of those absentee ballots cast.  What part don't you understand?

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

[Minnesota Mike]

http://m.wral.com/w/news-top/story/75937761/

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[Lief 🗽]

So in just one day more people voted in person than all the ballots that have been mailed in over the past few weeks? Hahah.

[J. J.]

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

First, you are using the 2012 numbers for 2008.

Second the 2008 absentee ballots received for 10/16/08 were:

arty

    Republicans:  54.71%
    Democrats:  29.17%  

That is a gap 25.5%.  Today the gap is 27.1.  So the votes received are about 1.6 point improvement, but the applications are still running higher for R voters, so the gap is likely to grow.
    

[J. J.]

So in just one day more people voted in person than all the ballots that have been mailed in over the past few weeks? Hahah.

The mail votes only will count for about 8-10% of non election day votes. 

[Minnesota Mike]

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

First, you are using the 2012 numbers for 2008.

Second the 2008 absentee ballots received for 10/16/08 were:

arty

    Republicans:  54.71%
    Democrats:  29.17%  

That is a gap 25.5%.  Today the gap is 27.1.  So the votes received are about 1.6 point improvement, but the applications are still running higher for R voters, so the gap is likely to grow.
    

I am using the numbers I got by hitting the "Compare to 2008" bar.

Bottom line numbers are very close to 2008 levels.

[J. J.]

But that is just wrong.  It was R + 26.1 at this point in 2008, not R+20.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/



19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

First, you are using the 2012 numbers for 2008.

Second the 2008 absentee ballots received for 10/16/08 were:

arty

    Republicans:  54.71%
    Democrats:  29.17%  

That is a gap 25.5%.  Today the gap is 27.1.  So the votes received are about 1.6 point improvement, but the applications are still running higher for R voters, so the gap is likely to grow.
    

I am using the numbers I got by hitting the "Compare to 2008" bar.

Bottom line numbers are very close to 2008 levels.

I copied them straight off the page.  And we are talking a slight shift to the GOP, but the state was only slightly D in 2008.  Obama carried it by less than 15,000.

[Cliffy]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

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[Adam Griffin]

In Virginia, 18-25 year-olds currently comprise 22% of all early votes cast.

Apparently there was no in-person voting in Virginia in 2008. There were 200,679 mail-in ballots cast in Virginia in 2008. As of now it stands at 200,810. There have been around 136,000 mail-in ballots already received, with another 65,000 or so in-person early votes cast.

Source: elections.gmu.edu

[J. J.]

We should see a swing to the D's today in NC, because of early voting.

[Skill and Chance]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

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When polls ask if people voted early, I would imagine it includes those who plan to but haven't yet, etc.  You can't go by a running total because someone with a request in the mail will report themselves as voting early.

[J. J.]

NC with One Stop voting:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    34.8%
None/Oth    17.9%

Race jumped, but age did not, with the younger group.  The electorate is skewing about 3 years older.

First day comparison from 2008:

D 52.1%
R 32.1%

R gain of about 7.5 points, in terms of the gap.  The age gap is higher than 2004 however.

Race is running about the same.  It is a slightly less white electorate, but under 0.5 points.

IA has a votes cast D +0.3 over 2008.  In terms of applications, R have improved from 2008 from a 18.8 gap to a 14.8 gap, though we don't have day to day comparisons.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[krazen1211]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

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When polls ask if people voted early, I would imagine it includes those who plan to but haven't yet, etc.  You can't go by a running total because someone with a request in the mail will report themselves as voting early.

I would imagine not, because they asked that question separately.


http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/18/14542135-polls-obama-holds-his-lead-in-iowa-wisconsin?lite


Thirty-four percent of likely voters in the poll say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those people, 67 percent to 32 percent.

Another 11 percent are planning to vote early, and he’s up among that group, 55 percent to 39 percent.




Of course, ballots requested as of Oct 16 totaled 29% of the vote.

[krazen1211]

Iowa absentees

Yesterday:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I


Today:

48.8% D
30.5% R
20.5% I

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.wect.com/story/19852629/dozens-turn-out-for-first-day-of-early-voting

While narrowing, it's still not bad for the Democrats. But considering that 2008 was really close, I would say Romney will win it this time by a few points.

[J. J.]

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http://www.wect.com/story/19852629/dozens-turn-out-for-first-day-of-early-voting

While narrowing, it's still not bad for the Democrats. But considering that 2008 was really close, I would say Romney will win it this time by a few points.

That has been my premise for a few weeks.

IA more strongly R as well, and both these are supported by the polls.

I wish we had decent numbers out of OH.

[Cliffy]

Ethusigasms....